* * Ladder Board #31 - Round 16 * *
* * Runner-up Match * *
Mircea Pauca (IJN; Bid 3.5) vs. Mike Brophy (USN)

The CPO Withdrawal adjustments are in play.

Turn 1: A maximal Pearl Harbor raid with 8 carriers (26 air factors) sinks 7BB+1CA. No US carriers appear randomly at Midway, but 3 at Hawaii (of which 2 will be rebased to Australia). In Indonesia, 4 LBA {Land-Based Air units] sink Prince of Wales and destroy the LBA. Yokosuka Marines are rebased at Truk for advanced offensives.
+7 PoC, total 7

Turn 2: Encouraged by high US losses, "Yamamoto" goes bold and tries to control both the Hawaiian seas and US Mandate, splitting equally the main force (finally will have 5BB,8CA, 4CV in each). The British patrol Indonesia with all 3 light carriers and most surface ships. Americans patrol with 2 ships each the unclaimed areas: Coral Sea, NPO [North Pacific Ocean], and challenges the Marshalls.

The Japanese protect Indonesia with 3 LBA and Marshalls with the other 3, plus Hosho 1+, while the US park their 3 LBA at Midway, keeping them safe and breaking IJN control. The 1st Japanese Marine goes to Hawaiian seas to take
Johnston, while the second will rebase at Truk.

"Nagumo" tries to reinforce the 4 medium carriers in Hawaii with the 2 new ones, but both run out of fuel [raider speed rolls fail] and end at Truk. BIG MISTAKE ! ["Next time" better return them to Saigon!] Americans send Saratoga+1CA to SPO [South Pacific Ocean] where no Japanese airpower is - and will SINK both CV's in 2 air raids on Truk - and save Lae too !

The main US force (4CV,2BB,11CA) goes to challenge the landing at Hawaii. 1st Round (Day): The US heavy carriers leave the Marine to land but sink all 4 Japanese medium carriers, while the IJN sinks only Yorktown and hits critically Hornet. Enterprise returns disabled to Pearl, only Lexington is airworthy. "Nagumo" decides to continue the battle to keep the IJN flag and land the Marine at Johnston Island.
2nd Round (Night): The IJN with equal numbers but crushing firepower, obtain disappointingly little hits (2 ships sunk for each side) but more US ships are disabled so they withdraw. The fast US ships run untouched, protected by the carrier.

All Japanese gang on slow "New Mexico" and sink it, but it still manages to sink a IJN cruiser before going down!  The British withdraw unhurt from Indonesia.

The battle seems decided due to high IJN carrier losses, or is it ? Both Hawaii and US Mandate have Japanese flags.  Singapore and Attu fall to Imperial Army landings [what the 2-turn-control=garrison-flip rule seem to imply].  Two Japanese cruisers are based in the north (forgetting they could not get far due to US control of CPO and NPO). To "Yamamoto"'s surprise, almost all US ships return to Pearl Harbor to make a last stand (they are 'self-arrested' there). Two cruisers base temporarily from Dutch Harbor. Hornet goes for emergency repairs to Australia.

Losses: IJN: 6CV(15+),1BC,2CA ;
US: 1CV(4+),1BB,3CA.
+9 PoC, total 16

Turn 3: I'm somewhat scared of the massive concentration at Pearl (3CV,5BB,11CA,2 Marines plus 2CA in Dutch) that would need very thin Japanese patrols to allow them to fire on US Marines at night too. [In retrospect this risk-taking would have been The Right Thing(tm)]

So I'm patrolling stronger around the North, and in US territory too (Coral, US Mandate). Then I'm making the STUPIDEST mistake of sending 1BB to patrol US Mandate and Marshalls. I thought they could survive LBA better than cruisers. And I wanted to use the slow BB's from Johnston, to leave the Truk force free to choose raiding east or west. But I forgot about speed rolls, *therefore* they failed too ;-( So I lost an easy chance to divert Allied LBA from the main battle, or force an easy battle to take Samoa - depending on Allied LBA placing). The US patrol Hawaii with 8 surface ships. All 6 LBA of each side go to the Mother-of-Battles for Pearl Harbor. Japan adds "Kaga" to sure sacrifice, and the US raise with everything, including the 3 carriers.

Japanese Marines deploy to take Midway and Lae without opposition. Shokaku raids the Coral Sea (where an air raid will sink Hornet, still repairing in an Australian port). The main IJN raid force: 4CV (12+),4BB,10CA attacks frontally to crush the Brits in Indonesia 4CVL (7),5BB,3CA even if there aren't Japanese patrols or LBA (so no chance to get the flag and 3 PoC). 1st round of both battles is Day+Night. In Hawaii, 2LBA each damage only, but fail to remove both US Marines, so IJN LBA will run away, deprived of their Johnston base. 2 US carriers are sunk, but the concentrated Allied airpower takes out 3 Japanese LBA (I predicted 1-2) and lots of guns sink Kaga at night.

In Indonesia, the British take only light losses (1CVL, 2BB,1CA) and some disables, then withdraw each ship on its own. "Mighty Hermes" sinks CV Hiyo/3+ and escapes to Ceylon. Dorsetshire sinks a cruiser. Indonesia, Marshalls and US Mandate are uncontrolled.

Losses: IJN 2CV (7+),1CA;
US 3CV (12+); British 2CVL (4) ,3BB,1CA
+7 PoC, total 23

Turn 4: With neither Pearl not Samoa captured, the last Japanese chance to win is to take bases and build a LBA-proof perimeter. IJN patrols strongly SPO, with 1CA probes/covers in Coral Sea, Marshalls and NPO. US patrols stronger (2 ships, later reinforced with redundant LBA): Coral, Mandate, Hawaii, NPO. This means they do not have enough surface power to contest SPO [and probably
didn't intend this from the start]

The 3 IJN LBA are dispersed to hold Indonesia, the Marianas and CPO. US LBA holds its POC areas, guarding the North (1 each in Aleutians and NPO) that Japan cannot counter. Two LBA, thinly supplied from Guadalcanal, also put pressure in the South Pacific. Yokosuka SNLF threatens to close that base (they will survive weak air strikes and take it) but 2nd US Marines are ready and retake it from the South side ! [One may know a similar line of history called "real" by non-VitP players] Yamamoto reinforces the SPO battle with 3CV (13+). Simultaneously, a small raid (1CV,6CA) goes to Bay of Bengal to crush the light patrols then air-raid the last British after they retreat from Indonesia. Together with the scheduled withdrawals, there will be no more British in the Pacific!

The US main force sails at ease to the Marshalls, also they sink the fast IJN intruders in Coral and NPO.  The IJN returns the main force to Lae, and the US split the ships between Australia and Pearl.

Losses: IJN 3CA, US 1CA, British 2CVL,3CA.
+2 PoC, total 25

Turn 5: To counter the Allied positions, Japan splits too its surface ships to patrol Indonesia and CPO, while SPO and Marshalls (the only places where the US fleet can reunite) are held with 3LBA each.  The US patrols much more sparsely, 1 LBA only hold the North again (Aleutians,NPO), Hawaii and Coral, and 4 LBA put again a stronger pressure on SPO. The poker-like "bidding" in SPO is raised with Marines, 2 Japanese and 1 US, trying for key bases: Lae, Guadalcanal. 3rd US Marines goes to probable sacrifice against Midway, prompting Japanese naval reinforcements with 2 carriers, to defeat the strongest possible raid.

US raiders avoid combat with the two superior IJN halves. The Pearl force goes deep to Marianas to snatch 2 PoC (through the uncontrolled 'hole' of Marshall Islands) while the Australian half adds to SPO (again!).  In the critical SPO battle, both Japanese marines
are sunk in their transport ships, while the US one survives a firepower of 6 to take Lae!  Japan withdraws (even if it may have had a small chance with 3 LBA and Hosho against 4 LBA+Wasp). Hosho is left to withdraw, because the risk to lose Wasp was too great. Dutch Harbor falls now to US Army invasion.

No ship losses! (but 2 IJN Marines)
-3 PoC, total 22

Turn 6: There is little chance now for IJN victory, except to hold Indonesia now with the inner perimeter Marianas and Japan, and CPO for a turn to delay the usefulness of the massive US reinforcements. Then keep both Indonesia and Japan for turns 7 and 8... quite hard.
22 - 4 - 7 - 7 = 4 POC, just enough over the initial bid.  To keep SPO now is hopeless due to massive Allied LBA and Marines.  The strong threat to Japan itself from Dutch Harbor and Lae-based ships prompts for a strong patrol of  Japanese seas: 3BC,2CA,1CV [Maybe too much; Akagi could have waited to see if the threat remains] and Indonesia. 4 LBA hold CPO (to force the US carrier reinforcements to attack here, or keep them at bay for one turn) and 2 LBA hold Marianas. The threat against Japan doesn't materialize against such strong deterrents; US ships just patrol easy areas in the North. 4 LBA each keep SPO and pressure Indonesia. Marines of both sides converge to Indonesia, the IJN to retake Lae and repulse the LBA, the US one to take the Phillipines, a mortal blow to IJN's plans.  Two US carriers raid to Marianas, but damaged Wasp leaks fuel and fails to get there; Saratoga survives 6 air fires and returns home!

The US reinforcement carriers refuse the CPO combat and envelop it instead, to base from both sides of it.  Both Japan and Indonesia will be heavily threatened.  In Indonesia, the Marines of both sides are sunk first, and RAAF is eliminated, at least for next turn. "Yamamoto" tries a last ditch battle with 3CV (9+) against the 3 LBA from Lae, but doesn't even scratch the island while 2 carriers are sunk and the last disabled.

-7 PoC, total 15.

In this hopeless situation, the IJN high command surrenders to spare needless suffering. Emperor Hirohito swears on the new Constitution "Peace and Prosperity!" Long-term contracts are made on photo and auto industry.

Congratulations to Mike Brophy for his clear victory! He used sound strategy, had some luck where needed, and more, he was the fastest PBEM opponent of all 15 I met so far !


In a friendly post-game discussion, Mike claimed the US victory was assured after Turn 2 with its 6:1 carrier losses. I argued the Japanese position was excellent, with a strong possibility to capture both Hawaii and Samoa on Turn 3, knocking out the US for lack of reinforcements. We agreed crushing the British was rather easy but not so important (why Mike ignored the threat, possibly enjoying my diversion of effort, easing the US fleet and base situation).

I proposed to re-start (off-tournament) an alternate history, diverging either before T2 raiders (with 2 IJN carriers possibly fighting in Hawaii instead of sunk at Truk) or before T3. He agreed with Turn 3. Actually, with his total concentration at Pearl (with IJN-controlled seas around Hawaiian Islands) the US renounced its raiding flexibility for raw force!  If only the Japanese could match 23 surface ships to have a chance to repulse the Marines and keep Johnston Island for LBA... (5BB+11CA+2CA possibly from Dutch H.+3CV+2Marines).

(Turn 3' ) This was achieved with _very_ light IJN patrols: carrier alone (!) in Japan (could not get to main battle due to US Midway) and Coral Sea (to finish off the repairing Hornet in Australia), Yamato alone to Marianas, and -essential - two cruisers threatening US Mandate to convert Samoa and/or divert US LBA for its defense. SPO, Marshalls, CPO left unpatrolled!

The bulk of the IJN fleet went to Hawaii, supported by 6 LBA flying from Johnston. The US defended Pearl Harbor with 5 LBA later adding its whole fleet, and Samoa with only 1LBA (immediately I attacked it with 2 heavy carriers, counting to spare them the heavy
losses in Pearl).

Hawaiian Islands:
IJN: 6 LBA, 2 CV/L (5+), 9 BB, 14 CA
US: 5 LBA, 3 CV (12+), 5 BB, 13 CA, 2 Marines

US Mandate: 2CA patrol + 2 CV (8+) / US 1 LBA

(If he had put 2LBA, I could riposte with 3 heavy carriers + light Hosho - and Hawaiian battle would be easier at 6:4 LBA. If 3 US LBA to Samoa, I would have abandoned its capture but Pearl would have fallen almost certainly at 6:3.)  Of course Indonesia has been temporarily abandoned, and the British patrolled it heavily!

Combat - Hawaiian:
- round 1: day (mutually agreed!). Japanese concentrated large firepower (2x9) on Marines to be sure of keeping Johnston - but only disabled both [OK now, some worry next turn]. The US sunk both IJN carriers and eliminated two LBA (!). Now the situation is almost equal with 4:5 LBA - but superior IJN firepower (12:10).
- round 2: night. "Revenge for the Rising Sun" thought "Yamamoto" but miraculously with its inferior firepower the US sinks 6 Jap ships while losing only 4. Now the fleets are equally-sized - but still with IJN qualitative advantage. All IJN patrols are removed too - now LBA
alone could win the battle.
- round 3: day. Two US LBA lost, one heavily damaged - thought this is much better than the 1.28 expected, almost victory! Another
miracle and the US 'sunk' 3!! I still continued the battle with 1:3, hoping the threat of ship losses in night combat might 'chicken' the US to retreat... NO WAY! He was totally committed to save Pearl.
- round 4: day again! The IJN, predictably (?), lost its last LBA.

US Mandate: Surprisingly, Mike targeted his lone LBA (firepower 2) at a patrolling cruiser, then the next one, disabling both before the
2 IJN carriers (firepower 8) could knock it out - round 1 only damaged the LBA, r2 nothing, r3 finally won - but the implicit Army landing failed.

After these disasters on Turn 3, with no LBA and only 2 carriers (to Allied 5 LBA + 1 CV) Japan could no longer defend Indonesia on
Turn 4 (Saigon and Singapore would have fallen to the British) so I surrendered again :-(


The combat situations and results in this Alternate Turn 3 prompted my experiment with a bunch of 11 new histories (+ this one = 12). First round in Hawaiians was started with Day/Night frequencies in proportional with theoretical probabilities to put under control a known source of variance (if Japan wanted Night instead of accepting Day - another hypothesis to test).

Names of branches:
- D1, D2...D5 starting Day in Hawaiians (D1 already played)
- DN1, DN2 starting Day+Night
- N1... N5 staring Night

Very summary results:

- Hawaii: 4/12 victories = Pearl Harbor falls to Red Sun Flag 4x US Marine(s) survived and retook Johnston. IJN LBA gone, fleet withdrew. 3 of the 4 happened if first turn were Night 4x US LBA won 4x IJN LBA won + surface fleets battle as a sideshow, in 10/12 histories heavy to total US losses including carriers, light to moderate IJN losses

- US Mandate: 11/12 victories - Samoa falls
With the CA-targeting US strategy - and only 3 CA sunk in 12 histories
With CV-targeting it would have been worse for the IJN

So it seems the decisions to enter the battles were quite reasonable, but "Nothing beats good dice !


** A Monte Carlo Experiment for 'Victory in the Pacific' **

Situation: It's Turn 3 in an Alternate History branched from the game in Round 16 of the VitP Ladder Tournament.
Japan: Mircea Pauca; Allies: Mike Brophy.

Japan already control Hawaiian Islands and US Mandate seas, and if this can be repeated, Pearl Harbor and Samoa will fall to major Army landings !
[Implicitly represented by the 2-turn-control rule]

The experiment includes 12 independent branches, named D1-D5, - forcing the first round in Hawaiian as Day, DN1-DN2: Day+Night, and N1-N5: Night. ( 5+2+5 / 12, in same proportion to the probabilities 15/36, 6/36, 15/36) to include certainty into a known source of variance.

Around 3000 dice interpreted in all, from the VitP-specific dice server: newdice@dartmouth.East.Sun.COM

I. US Mandate > Samoa!
Starting: Japan 2 CA (patrol) + 2 CV / US 1 LBA

a) Mike surprisingly fired the US LBA at patrolling cruisers to 'free' the area - and it worked in the 'original' history (D1) ! In 3 rounds, both cruisers were disabled before the LBA was eliminated by carrier airpower. Unfortunately not in other branches.

11/12 IJN victories (LBA lost, at least 1 cruiser remains to patrol) 3/12 IJN CA sunk.

b) If the US LBA had targeted Zuikaku, then Akagi. Japan continues the fight even with 1 carrier alone! (rolled separately by hand)
10/12 IJN victories
3/12 IJN CV sunk.

With same dice, if Japan had retreated after 1CV removed:
7/12 IJN victories
1/12 CV sunk.

c) theoretical probabilities for one round:
2 CV vs 1 LBA: 47% 'Sunk', 30% damage, 23% intact
1 LBA vs CA 1+27: 21% sunk 48% removed
or 1 LBA vs Zuikaku: 16% sunk 48% removed

Carriers are out of airpower if damage=armor, so Removal probabilities from table are applied for Armor -1.

Overall IJN probability to control gets complicated to calculate exactly as there are a lot of states to track. US LBA seems to have fired better at Zuikaku? Yes!


II. Hawaiian Islands > Pearl Harbor!

- Starting forces
IJN: 6 LBA, 2 CV/L (5+), 9 BB, 14 CA
carriers are heavy Kaga (4+) and light Hosho (1+).
US: 5 LBA, 3 CV (12+), 5 BB, 13 CA, 2 Marines

a) Overall summary and air combat

The critical early event is US Marines' attempt to get through, retake Johnson Island and send Japan's LBA home, all the fleet having to withdraw.

In the original course of play (D1) Mike's US wanted Day and my IJN accepted it. He correctly added the last 2 US cruisers, so that if Night, each Marine could be fired on only by one Battleship (5 fires) and possibly a submarine on the remaining it. At Day, I chose to fire 3 LBA (9 fires) at each. It was a hard trade-off between firing more on Marines - to avoid early loss - or on carriers and LBA - to make the continued battle easier.  The experiment supposes IJN would have wanted Night.  Combat between LBA was *the* slower but decisive part, influencing but unable to be influenced by the 'faster' surface action. Carriers were much more vulnerable and didn't stay long in the battle.

The following time paths show IJN:US force levels in successive rounds, as LBA+carriers. "h" is light Hosho. Not included Night rounds where the situation didn't change.

4 US Quick victories - Marine(s) retake Johnson
D5,N1,N4,N5

4 US Victories with LBA
D1 4:5+2, 4:5, 1:3, 0:3, IJN withdraws
D2 4:5+2, 3:5, 2:4, 0:4, IJN withdraws
D4 2+1:5+1 , 1:5, IJN withdraws
DN1 5:5, 2:3, 2:3, 1:2, 0:2, IJN withdraws

4 IJN Victories with LBA
D3 6+h:5+1, 6+h:4, 6+h:2, US withdraws (I think you'll agree here) DN2 5:5, 4:3, 4:1, US withdraws N2 6+2:5, 6+h:2, US withdraws N3 6+2:5, 6+h:4, 5:4, 5:2, US withdraws (do you agree here too ?)

So only 4/12 = 1/3 IJN victories. I guesstimated more...
BUT only 1/5 if accepting Day from the start...

Obvious strategy: run when outnumbered (how much is enough?) and stay if undecided, hoping for good fortune. From 5:5 both sides did win (DN1,DN2) although Japan was favored with 15:10 firepower.

Mike commented his planned US fire policy::
> I'm committed to fighting to the death in HI (LBA MUST carry
> the day, the surface fleet is secondary).
> [...] Else, you conceed the IJN victory and start over.
> To lessen overall damage inflicted on my fleet, I would go for
> maximum opportunity to disable, reducing threats now.

b) Surface ship combat

Japan 'won' in various degrees all the surface battles.  The difference in force was too great to be overcome by luck. (around 1.5x by my evaluation: BB=10p, IJN CA=6, US CA=5) The US had to stay fighting long enough for LBA to decide all.

Time paths are for (IJN BB+CA : US BB+CA) in combat.
Starting: 9 BB + 14 CA : 5 BB + 13 CA (+3CV, sometimes fired at)

D1 -> 4+7 : 2+9, IJN withdraws (LBA lost)
D2 -> no guns fired, IJN withdraws (LBA) US does not pursue
D3 -> 6+9 : 2+6 -> 4+7 : 1+2 -> US annihilated
D4 -> 6+14 : 3+6, IJN withdraws (LBA)
D5 -> no guns fired, IJN withdraws (Johnston falls). US does not pursue

DN1 -> 6+13 : 1+2 -> 5+12 : 0 ! IJN had to withdraw (LBA)
DN2 -> 7+14 : 4+6 -> 5+12 : 1+3 -> all US ships gone ! US LBA withdraws

N1 -> 6+13 : 1+4, IJN withdraws (Johnston)
N2 -> 6+10 : 2+9 -> 6+8 : 0+8, US withdraws, 4CA sunk in pursuit N3 -> 4+8 : 1+7 -> 4+7 : 2+7 -> 2+3 : 1+3 -> 2+2 : 0+1 , US annihilated N4 -> 4+8 : 1+8, IJN withdraws (Johnston) N5 -> 6+11 : 1+7, IJN withdraws (Johnston)

It's clear that seeking Night action favored Japan to decimate faster the US fleet, but increased the risk to lose early from Marines landing.

Overall surface results:
5 total IJN surface victories: D3, DN1, DN2, N2, N3
2 substantial IJN victories: N1, N5 (Inflicted major losses on US) 2 "draws": D4, N4 (important losses for both sides) 1 tactical US victory: D1 (IJN took more losses, but still would have won) 2 surface battles not fought: D2, D5 (Decided by day air combat)

c) Ships sunk, all rounds (IJN / US) - What counts for following turns:

D1 (1 round) 1BB, 5CA / 1CV, 2CA
D2 none
D3 (2 rounds) 4CA / 1CV, 1BB, 8CA
D4 (1 round) 2BB, 2CA / 2BB, 2CA
D5 none

DN1 (2 rounds) 3BB, 1CA / 1CV, 2BB, 8CA
DN2 (3 rounds) 1BB, 1CA / 2BB, 7CA

N1 (1 round) 1BB, 1CA / 1BB, 7CA
N2 (3 rounds) 1BB, 4CA / 3CV, 3BB, 6CA
N3 (2 rounds) 4CA / 2CV, 2BB, 5CA
N4 (1 round) 2BB, 3CA / 1CV, 3CA
N5 (1 round) 1BB / 1CV, 1BB, 4CA

Total in 12 branches: 12 BB, 25 CA / 10 CV, 14 BB, 52 CA Average per battle: 1.0 BB, 2.08 CA / 0.83 CV, 1.17 BB, 4.33 CA
Taking part: 9 BB 14 CA / 3 CV 5 BB 13 CA

Relative winner's losses: 11% of BB, 15% of CA
Relative loser's losses: 28% of CV, 23% of BB, 33% of CA

Even in the most crushing defeats, not more than half the loser's ships are Sunk!! The rest are Disabled. Especially Battleships tend to be disabled by opposing BB's, perhaps with damage but afloat. This should be an important planning factor in VitP! Sea zones could be controlled or not, bases won or lost, but most of the fleet CANNOT be exterminated and will survive in the long run.

d) Round 1 Sunk Ships (IJN/US) - compared with Averages for 1st round calculated _exactly_ from the Odds table: http://www.gameaholics.com/vitp_articles/vitp_odds_article.htm

1. (Day): Concentrating firepower 9 on each Marine +sub on best remaining target: Marine (if 1) or CV.

D1 2LBA,2CV/L / 2Mar,1CV
D2 2LBA(+d1) / 2Mar
D3 no LBA!, 1CV / none
D4 4LBA !!!! / 1CV
D5 (LBA d3) 1CV / 1CV
Total Day: 8LBA,4CV / 4 Mar, 3CV
Average: 1.6 LBA, 0.8 CV / 0.8 Mar, 0.6 CV
=== theoretical averages:
Sunk: 1.28 LBA, 0.75 CV / 1.08 Mar, 0.97 CV
11% instant IJN victory - Marine gets Johnston
Removed: 1.28 LBA, 1.40 CV / 1.88 Mar, 1.67 CV
--------
In battle: 4.72 LBA, 0.60 CV / 5 LBA, 1.33 CV

2. (Night): one BB, firepower 5 on each Marine (+ Sub)
N1 1BB,1CA / 1Mar, 1BB, 7CA
N2 2CA / 2CV, 2BB, 2CA
N3 4 CA / 1Mar,2CV,2BB, 4CA
N4 2BB,3CA / 1CV, 3CA
N5 1BB / 1Mar, 1CV, 1BB, 4CA
Total Night: 4BB,10CA / 3Mar, 6CV, 6BB, 20CA
Average: 0.8 BB, 2 CA / 0.6 Mar, 1.2 CV, 1.2 BB, 4 CA
=== theoretical averages:
Sunk: 1.16 BB, 1.75 CA / 0.64 Mar, 1.10 CV, 0.84 BB, 3.74 CA
34% instant IJN victory - Marine gets Johnston
Removed: 3.40BB, 3.63 CA / 1.59 Mar, 2.38 CV, 3.24 BB, 5.84 CA
--------
In battle: 5.60 BB, 10.37 CA / 0.41 Mar, 0.62 CV, 1.76 BB, 7.16 CA

3. (Day+Night)
- Japanese Day fire: light (1LBA) on Marines, rest on surface ships
- same Allied Day fire as for pure Day (too unlikely to exceed
surface ship damage done by IJN, in order to stop IJN from firing
surface ships at Marine, so US CV+LBA fire at CV+LBA)

DN1/D: 1LBA, 1CV / 2CA (+2BB,2CA disabled)
DN1/N: 2BB / 1Mar, 1CV, 1BB, 4CA.
DN2/D: 1LBA, 2CV / 1Mar, 1BB, 2CA (+2CA disabled, 1BB->"CA")
DN2/N: 1BB / 1CA (+ a lot of disabled: Mar, 3CV, ...)
Total D+N: 2LBA, 3CV, 3BB / 2Mar, 1CV, 2BB, 9CA
per branch: 1LBA, 1.5CV, 1.5BB / 1Mar, 0.5 CV, 1 BB, 4.5 CA
=== theoretical averages:
only 4.6% instant IJN victory - Marine gets Johnston

Sunk/Day: 1.28 LBA, 0.75 CV / 0.36 Mar, 0.56 BB, 1.08 CA Removed/D 1.28 LBA, 1.40 CV / 1.10 Mar, 1.15 BB, 2.68 CA In Battle: 4.72 LBA, 0.60 CV / 5LBA, 3CV, 3.85 BB, 10.32 CA
--- (assume 1Mar, 4BB and 10CA remain in battle for US)
Sunk/Night: 0.86 BB, 0.70 CA / 1.86 CV, 0.46 BB, 2.80 CA
Removed 2.65 BB, 1.55 CA / 2.85 CV, 1.10 BB, 4.40 CA
In Battle: 6.35 BB, 12.45 CA / 0.15 CV, 2.75 BB, 5.92 CA

TOTAL sunk in 12 branches:
(IJN) 10 LBA, 7CV, 7BB, 10CA
(US) 9Mar, 10CV, 8BB, 29CA
The Japanese start getting an advantage, esp. in surface, as planned when entering this battle !

Remaining in combat for Round 2::
D1: 4LBA,4BB,7CA / 5LBA,2BB,9CA. Follows D
D2: 3LBA,9BB,14CA / 5LBA,5BB,13CA. Follows D.
D3. 6LBA,1CVL,6BB,9CA / 4LBA,1CV,2BB,6CA. Follows DN
D4: 1LBA,1CVL,9BB,14CA / 5LBA,5BB,13CA. Follows N
[IJN will withdraw, air battle practically lost]

DN1 2LBA,6BB,13CA / 3LBA,1BB,2CA. Follows N
DN2 5LBA,5BB,12CA / 5LBA,1BB,3CA. Follows N

N2 6LBA, 1CVL,6BB,8CA / 2LBA,8CA [Does NOT follow D]
{US withdraws. IJN pursues with 3BC+8CA+ vs 8 CA]
N3 6LBA,2CV/L,4BB,7CA / 4LBA,1CV,2BB,7CA

e) Round 2 losses (IJN/US)

D1 /N (1BB,5CA / 1CV, 3CA)
D2 /D: 1LBA / -
D3 DN/D - / 1LBA
D3 DN/N 3CA / 1CV,1BB,5CA
D4 /D 1LBA,1CV / -

DN1 /D : 3LBA / 2LBA
DN2 /N: 1CA / 2CA

N2 DN/D 1CV / 3LBA
N2 DN/N 1CA / 1CV,1BB,2CA
N3 /D - / 1LBA

Total in 8 branches: 5LBA,2CV,1BB,10CA / 7LBA,3CV,2BB,12CA Attrition continues, IJN slightly favored. Many battles almost without US ships

f) Conclusion: Synthetic force ratios and sink/remove probabilities CAN be used for rough forecasting, but one can expect *major* variations over the course of battles. "You can never be too strong in battle!"  So use a *large* surplus to have good chances of victory.  And if that is impossible, "Prepare for victory, plan on defeat" (Moltke)

Thank you for reading and thinking on this.  Comments and criticism appreciated !

Happy gaming !
Mircea Pauca


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