* * 2007-2009 BPA Single-Elim * *
* * Final * *
Ed Paule (IJN; Bid 5.5) vs. Joe Dragan (USN)

The I-Boat Raid and CPO Withdrawal adjustments are in play.

Turn 1
Turn 2
Turn 3
Turn 4
Turn 5
Turn 6
Turn 7
Turn 8

Turn 1

IJN Report: Two rounds of pathetic shooting at Pearl allow 5 BBs and 1 CA (plus an LBA) to escape.  Four of the BBs are completely undamaged - back-to-back complete whiffs - 4 times!  Easily the worst Pearl I've ever had...
Joe gets 1 CV over to Australia.
POC at the standard 7.

Turn 2

IJN Report: With such a massive USN battle fleet out there, I decide to reduce the size of my Mandate and Coral Sea strike forces (night action could be really ugly).  As such a move on my part is not hard to guess, Joe puts his LBA to work in the CPO and Hawaii.  Otherwise my move is pretty standard.  Designed to convert bases and/or attrition CVs.
Aleutians: Sara sunk, Big E disabled, Shoho sunk, Junyo crippled.  Sasebo takes Dutch Harbor.  USN saves Attu.
CPO: Kaga downs the 7th Air Force.  7AF responds by sinking Mogami.  USN saves Midway.
Marshalls: My entire force is destroyed in exchange for one Australian CA.  Ouch!  Disables on the other two CAs prevent USN control.
Hawaii: The suicide LBA misses.  Yokosuka takes Johnston.
Coral Sea: Hosho hits Nevada for one damage.  A round 2 night action sees Nevada hit for two more damage. I have a nasty feeling that those two POC are going to come back and haunt me later.
US Mandate: West Virginia sunk, Arizona dinged for 3 damage, Ryujo and Zuiho disabled.
POC goes to 14.
Joe saves both Attu and Midway.  I can handle one, but both is not good.  With carrier, LBA and I-Boat shots at 4 different USN CVs, I was hoping to sink two; but I only got one.  Fortunately, Joe's shooting at my CVs is equally bad.  Surface attrition is also in Joe's favor this turn.  My POC gain is sub-normal. I really wanted those two in the Coral Sea.  My success in averting the block is the only bright spot on what would otherwise be a disastrous turn 2.

GM Comments: Despite Ed's comments, the fact that the IJN shot down two Allied LBA and killed a USN CV while only losing one CV themselves makes this turn a huge IJN victory.  The IJN air power edge should be overwhelming next turn.  The surface losses will hurt, but the pain may be far enough down the road that it'll be too late for the USN.  The POC could be an IJN  problem if the USN can exploit the Midway/Attu corner to continuously raid the IJN interior.

USN Comments: With a handicap of 5.5 POC I don't think the 2 POC in the Coral Sea is that important, as I feel that with favorable attrition and base control I can afford to let Ed max out the POC at 29 and overcome that in turns 6 through 8. With Hiryu and Shoho sunk and Junyo maxed, I am quite happy with the air attrition. With a wide open perimeter and USN carriers based at Attu (1), Samoa (2) and Australia (1), I feel that my Allies got the best of turn 2. On turn 3 I plan to duck in Hawaii and put a lot of pressure everywhere else on the board. The POC goes to 14.

Turn 3

IJN Report: Plans for this turn are simple...  Convert Pearl.  Use Kure to grab Midway or Attu.  Get positive attrition enemy carriers and surface ships.  Grab some POC too.  Unfortunately, the dice have other plans...

SPO: 5 day shots on Canberra get no hits.  In the pursuit, 5 night shots on De Ruyter get a disable.  Those pesky Australian and Dutch CAs get away.

Marshalls:  Over two rounds, My LBA sinks Enterprise and I lose my entire force (1 LBA and 2 CA).

CPO: My entire force is lost (1 CV and 2 CA) in exchange for Chicago.

Aleutians: Night allows for an easy conversion of Attu.

NPO: Aoba sunk with nothing in return.

Hawaii: Round 1 sees my 25 shots score 2 hits (sinking one LBA and damaging another).  Joe's return fire is deadly - scoring 2 hits on his 6 shots (sinking Soryu and Zuikaku).  Round 2 sees my 18 shots score 3 hits and sink both USN LBA.  Joe's return fire is again deadly - sinking Shokaku and disabling Akagi.  Kaga then whiffs in the air raids.

Mandate: I disable his patrolling BB whilst he sinks my CA.

Coral Sea: I sink his patrolling BB in exchange for my CA.

This turn was a disaster.  I only succeeded in getting what Joe gave me.  That is, he gave me Pearl in exchange for some LBA shots at my carriers.  By not using his own carriers to defend the Mandate or Coral Sea, he gave me those POC.  His one LBA in the Aleutians had but a small chance to save Attu.

So although I got the bases I wanted and I got the POC I wanted, the attrition losses were crippling.  4 IJN CVs lost to 1 USN CV.  7 IJN surface ships lost to 2 USN.

The dice killed me.  During the course of the turn, my 20 bonus shots scored 1 hit (5%) and my 64 non-bonus shots scored 8 hits (12.5%).  In return, the US Navy's 8 bonus shots resulted in 4 hits (50%) and his 65 non-bonus shots scored 13 hits (20%).

I will need to dice to go my way for a couple turns to get back in this match...

USN Comments: Ed has pretty well summarized the attrition situation, which was one of my main objectives this turn. As it is almost impossible to save Pearl, my main objective in Hawaii is to save the Marines which I usually leave in port. With Indonesia conceded on turn 3, they have a 42% probability of landing on turn 4 as the British navy screens them when the Allies get a pure night turn. Another key objective is to create additional "hot seas", for example controlling the Marshalls on turn 3, which I also accomplished this turn. I placed 3 of my 4 LBA in Hawaii and the 4th in the Aleutians. I patrolled the NPO with 2 cruisers to put Dutch Harbor under siege.  A night turn in the Aleutians foiled my attempt there. Nevertheless, Ed will be hard pressed to save both Singapore/Saigon and Kwajalein/Maloelop on turn 4.  The POC goes to 19.

Turn 4

IJN Report: Things are looking bleak for the red team.  But not so bleak that I need to attempt to convert Samoa on turns 4 and 5.  Just flagging the Mandate on turn 5 should suffice. To that end, I'll try and take New Hebrides this turn.  I'll attack from whichever side Joe puts the least number of LBA.

What I really need this turn is some favorable dice.  To that end, I'll defend the perimiter and my exposed home areas in such a way as to entice Joe to split up his fleet.  The big dilema is how many LBA to put in Indonesia.  I don't want to scare Joe away with too many.  I'd rather fight many battles, each at a small disadvantage, than just a couple battles at very long odds.

Joe moves his raiders as planned.  Now all I need is the dice to do their part.  I need to shoot well and have Joe shoot poorly...

Marianas: Hosho dings Indianapolis for 1 damage.

Japan: Junyo sends Minneapolis to a watery grave.

Marshalls: Louisville succumbs to LBA fire.

Hawaii: Canberra disabled by LBA.  Kitakami sinks De Ruyter as she attempts to flee.

Coral Sea: Wasp goes down in flames; but not until after she damages and disables Yokosuka.  I also disable Colorado with 3 damage.  Joe's LBA put 2 damage on Kaga.  Round 2 is day again.  I want to take out Joe's surface advantage before attacking his LBA.  So I sink Nevada and Vincennes.  Unfortunately Joe's LBA cripple Akagi with 4 damage.  I run.

SPO: Lexington is crippled and I get a negligible 2 damage on Joe's marine.  Meanwhile, Sasebo is blown to tiny bits.  Round 2 is also day.  I disable Pensacola and sink the patrolling New Orleans.  Joe runs.  In the pursuit, Fuso is crippled whilst Tennesse is crippled, New Mexico gets 4 damage, and Idaho is sunk.

Indonesia:  Joe gets night against the flag.  Should I shoot the I-Boat at a CV or at the marine?  As getting some luck is part of the plan, I take a shot at the marine... - 1 damage.  Ergo, it didn't matter what I shot at.  Round 2 is critical.  Joe's marines have captured Lae and the Philippines.  But if I can flag Indo, not only do I save Singapore/Saigon; I can possibly take back Lae and the Philippines next turn via isolation.  I shoot well, sinking Hornet and disabling Yorktown.  If Joe whiffs, I'm back in the game.  The odds are Joe sinks one of my LBA, so the issue would still be in doubt.  The dice server results are in: 11 shots at my 2 LBA get 4 hits and both LBA are shot down in the first pass.  Ugh!!

Things have gone from bad to worse.  I failed to stop either of his marines.  He stopped both of mine.  Although I got excellent attrition against his fleet, replacements in the form of British ships based in Singapore negate that.

Normally I would resign at this point.  But seeing as how this is the championship game of a two-year long event, I'll give the dice server another chance to make amends and play another turn or two...

USN Comments: With an extremely good position as far as air and surface attrition and a good board position, I feel that a have a 90% chance of winning this game. I feel that Ed's only chance of winning is to control the U.S. Mandate on turns 3 and 4. Therefore, I am very conservative with the placement of my LBA, placing 3 in USM and 2 in the Coral Sea. This frees up the rest of my navy for offensive operations. I had placed the 1st Marine in Australia and the 2nd Marine in Samoa to spread the threat of invasion, knowing that Ed will not be able to handle my multiple threats of base capture by both invasion and conversion. At the conclusion of this turn I have captured Singapore, Saigon, Philippines and Lae. Ed finally gets some favorable attrition but this is negated by the new British navy threat. The POC goes to 25.

USN End of Turn Comments: Ed made an excellent move this turn. Ed said "Joe moves his raiders as planned" Even though I ultimately won this game, I think that moving all my ships to the SPO may have been a slightly better move as the attrition would have been much more favorable and most likely, I would have captured Lae and the Philippines.

Turn 5

IJN Report: A Japanese flag in the Mandate would make life a lot easier on turn 6, so I'll send a bunch of CAs there to really threaten it.  Too few would be an obvious feint.

Joe will use enough LBA to guard the Mandate, so I need a real plan.  Which is fairly simple.  Use single AirFlots to guard Japan, Hawaii and Marshalls as he only has 1.5 CVs available.  I will attempt to take Midway so as to protect the POC in the NE corner.  I will try and grab/steal more POC in Indo/Marianas so as to get my total as close to 29 as possible.

I was anticipating putting all my raiders in the Marianas; but Joe surprised me.  He didn't put any LBA in Indonesia.  My lone 118 was just a feint and Joe knew that.  I put my raiders in Indo figuring Joe would have to respond in kind to the threat of 3 POC and flag to protect Japan.  Which would in turn help Yokosuka take the Philippines back.  Joe responds with only Hermes, a risky move, hopefully I can take advantage.

There are four key battles...  Can Suzuya flag Indo?  Can Yokosuka take Philippines?  Can Kure grab Midway?  Can 26AF and the I-Boat hold off Yorky and Vicky?

I expect to get the last two and hope to get one of the first two.

Indo: In the day half, I disable Hermes, disable Shropshire and put 1 damage on Royal Soveregin.  Hermes misses with her shot.  In the night half, Royal Swiss Cheese puts Suzuya on the bottom.  Bummer.  My carrier presence forces Joe to base all his disabled and retreating British warships in Ceylon.

Japan: Musashi sinks Ramilles.  No more British BBs.  Yeah.

Marianas: Hoping my mairnes will disable his LBA, I shoot at Illustrious and South Dakota, sinking both.  Joe's 4 shots at Yokosuka add that piece to the top of the turn 7 reinforcements pile.  Darn.  Round 2 is day again.  My 6 shots at the MarineAF whiff.  His 2 shots cripple Kaga.  As I retreat, night action sinks Ryujo and Indiana gets crippled.

CPO: Joe beats the odds by getting day, then getting a hit, and then getting enough damage to sink Kure.  Ugh!

Hawaii:  Round 1 - Yorktown disabled, I-Boat whiffs, Allied return fire whiffs. Round 2 - both sides whiff.  Round 3 - Vicky sunk and 26AF gets hit for 3 damage.  Whew.

In the end, I lose 3 out of 4 battles.  Had Joe got one more damage on 26AF, I would have surrendered.

POC stays at 25.

I need Joe's CVs to shoot poorly next turn against my LBA to have a chance...

USN Comments: With only the Yorktown and Victorious available, I am really concerned about breaking the perimeter. I don't think 3 LBA in SPO is enough, thus I have to take a risk of IJN control of Indonesia, but it is only about a 42% for pure day times 2/3 (the percentage that the Hermes would miss Suzuya) or about 28%. Had I attacked SPO on turn 4 I probably would still have 3 or 4 CVs. POC stays at 25.

Turn 6

USN Comments: I prevail in Marshalls and CPO. Truk will probably fall next turn. I position my marines to retake Midway on turn 7 if necessary. This will allow me to base there and also send my marines to NPO or the Aleutians on turn 8 to remove IJN LBA from those areas. I retreat after round one in Hawaii to save my carriers for turns 7 and 8. POC is reduced to 23.

Turn 7

USN Comments: Ed places all 5 of his LBA plus the Akagi in Hawaii. A pure night against the flag by me forces Akagi to scuttle and allows me to dominate round 2 during daylight. POC is reduced to 14.

Turn 8

USN Comments: As I only need to pick up 9 POC to win I can afford to let Ed control the Japanese Islands as long as I control Hawaii and areas South and West of it plus either control the Aleutians or remove Ed's patrols from NPO. Luck is with me as I prevail in Hawaii, NPO and the Aleutians. I win the game by 1.5 POC.

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