Victory in the Pacific

Battles of Numbers
Case #1

US Carriers 1-3-7(4+) vs.
Japanese LBA 3-4-*

This occurs often with Allied early-war “indirect strategies” to avoid the main Japanese carrier force but disrupt peripheral defenses, or in the late-war general counteroffensive. As VitP veterans know, LBA are excellent defenders with their endurance (immune to ‘Disabled’ results) and punishing power. The sometimes-recommended 3:2 raid will be shown to be a risky and expensive option. 4:3 is even worse.

Note: if Allied light carriers (2 air factors) are also present, count them only as extra firepower - half a US large carrier. They will NOT be fired on (except if losing the battle!), the large carriers are “faster” targets (see Lanchester theory). Example: Turn 2 counter-offensive in Indonesia with 3 US carriers and 2 British light carriers against 2 Japanese LBA. Use the tables below at 4:2.

Starting data:

1 LBA vs. 1 CV: 62.81%

1 CV vs. 1 LBA: 31.51%
2 CV vs. 1 LBA: 55.92%
3 CV vs. 1 LBA: 72.77%

Lanchester Equivalent Value LEV = sqrt(0.6281/0.3151) = 1.41 carriers equal one LBA

 

Variant 1: Bold US attackers 

CV Retreat: 2:2, 3:3, 4:4

LBA Retreat: 4:1+

 

 

 

CV

LBA

US Win

CV Surv

IJN Surv

LR

1

1

15.73%

0.157

0.577

0.502

2

1

72.09%

0.970

0.191

0.785

3

1

94.69%

2.105

0.036

1.077

3

2

47.24%

1.178

0.718

0.704

4

2

80.37%

2.121

0.341

0.883

5

2

95.33%

3.358

0.352

1.003

6

2

99.26%

4.618

0.423

1.141

4

3

32.00%

1.576

1.401

0.66

5

3

63.54%

2.224

0.834

0.78

6

3

86.41%

3.279

0.597

0.883

5

4

22.75%

1.945

2.085

0.627

6

4

49.05%

2.398

1.391

0.724

 

Variant 2: Cautious US attackers 

CV Retreat: 1:1, 3:2, 4:3, 5:4

LBA Retreat: 4:1+

 

 

 

CV

LBA

US Win

CV Surv

IJN Surv

LR

1

1

 

 

 

 

2

1

66.88%

1.249

0.331

0.890

3

1

93.70%

2.158

0.063

1.113

3

2

 

 

 

 

4

2

74.68%

2.360

0.495

0.917

5

2

92.54%

3.469

0.428

1.027

6

2

98.99%

4.629

0.430

1.145

4

3

 

 

 

 

5

3

52.77%

2.692

1.152

0.801

6

3

79.96%

3.579

0.800

0.909

5

4

 

 

 

 

6

4

37.33%

3.007

1.801

0.735

 

Distribution of final outcomes starting from 6:4 with ‘bold’ US.

This is simplified from the main table. “15” means the state after 15 combat rounds or less.

CV

LBA

15

0

0

.02488

1

0

.08987

2

0

.14743

3

0

.09001

4

0

.02943

5

0

.00925

6

0

.00119

0

1

.05406

4

1

.08923

5

1

.03003

6

1

.00406

1

2

.03454

2

2

.12252

1

3

.00616

2

3

.06183

3

3

.12611

1

4

.00026

2

4

.01483

3

4

.03420

4

4

.03011

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