The I-Boat Raid and Individual CPO Withdrawal adjustments are in play.
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IJN Report: A slightly below ave Pearl as PA, MD/4,
TN/5 and the 7th AF escape. But a nice break for me as no CV groups show up in
the HI.
IJN Report: I do the usual patrollers in Allied home waters to see how Andy responds. His 3 lba in the USM discourages me from a two area attack. I toyed with the idea of 2 lba ea in Indo/SPO/Marshalls and/or sending a BB/CV task force to raid the CS. In the end I decide go conservative with 3 Indo lba plus a strong perimeter defense. I decide to abandon the CS idea and beef up my HI fleet to discourage Andy from a HI raiding adventure. This is more conservative than I usually prefer as it lets Andy pick the area(s) he wants to fight. Hopefully I will get some carrier attrition whatever his choice(s).
Andy hits the AI with all 5 CVs plus surface. The D/N rolls are about as expected with D action in AI, Marshalls & USM. But the attack results are very one-sided in my favor! In the AI both my carriers sink a CV while his 16 bonus dice can only disable Sasebo and Soryu/1. His other 4 bonus dice sink Hiryu to at least score one kill. I sink a CA in the Marshalls and the MD/4 in the CS while his return volley of 20 non-bonus shots either whiff or disable against my 4 CAs!! And now to really rub salt in the wound, the IB sinks a 3rd CV! The net result is 3 CVs, 1 BB and 1 CA sunk for the USN vs 1 IJN carrier sunk – a huge swing for the IJN. With the favorable attrition, base conversion and surviving Sasebo, the IJN is in great shape. The game isn’t over especially against a player of Andy’s caliber, but the IJN enjoys a big advantage at this point.
IJN Report: I press my advantage and patrol all the areas I can reach except in the western side of the board including the typical Indo abandonment. My primary objective is to flip Pearl; but I also hope to capture Guadalcanal and Dutch Harbor. As anticipated my two patrollers each in CS/USM draw a corresponding two Allied patrollers in each area. With only 1 CV in the south, at least one of the areas is guaranteed to be surface ships only – and 1 lba each in SPO/Marshalls should be adequate allowing 4 to go to the HI. Andy could put lba in the SPO to shoot at my anticipated marine but that would weaken his HI defense and free up a carrier(s) for other duty.
I was very tempted to send a CV/BB task force to the USM to force a fight or have a good chance to flag the area. But I also wanted a CVL in the SPO to have a better chance to sink any CV Andy might send after my marine. In the end I decided a USM raiding task force might weaken my HI force enough to tempt Andy to fight there. I want to minimize any chance the USN might get lucky in a HI fight where they might save Pearl without severe casualties.
I also want to protect the marine heading for Dutch Harbor which means giving Andy easy areas to decontrol (JI, CPO & NPO). But I believe my position is good enough that I can afford to give up the POC.
I thought Andy might duck to save his CVs, but he puts them at risk to go after my marines. But that leaves him with only moderate surface margins against my bonus CAs in four areas - the CPO, NPO, CS and USM. I didn’t calculate the odds but I suspect I am favored to win at least one of the areas. The one I want the most is the USM (although the CS would be very nice as well); so the IB goes there to up my chances in that key area.
In the SPO, I damage Lex during D action while Andy disables my marine with damage. I whiff during D of D/N in the AI while Andy again disables my marine with damage. But Sara is sunk during the N portion of the action. In the JI, Andy disables Yamato with damage while I disable a BB. In the CPO, Andy disables my patroller for no cost. I ding his NPO patroller but am sunk in return. In the CS, I don’t sink anything while he sinks a CA. But in the USM, I get some nice success as both his patrollers are sunk while he whiffs. The IB whiffs leaving my two bonus CAs vs his non-bonus CAs.
I get pure N in the HI sinking both marines and dinging a BB. Andy sinks a BC and disables another. Now the question for Andy is stay or run. I’ve overwhelming air power, so staying doesn’t look good. On the other hand leaving me with all my carriers is also very dangerous. He’s caught between a rock and a hard place. Andy elects to stay.
I get lucky sinking 4 lba and damaging the other two. His return fire is good also sinking 2 carriers and disabling two including Soryu (now crippled). Andy now runs. In the ensuing action, I sink the 3 BBs at sea and the repairing TN in port. Andy sinks one CA and damages a BB.
In the USM I sink a CA and disable the other over two rounds while Andy again whiffs. That gives me the flag which is a big swing as it makes the Samoa conversion a real threat as well as blocking the USN in the south from reaching the HI or Marshalls next turn. The IJN is in a really dominant position.
IJN Report: My objectives this turn are to run up the POC and capture Guad/Attu/D Harbor or flip Samoa for the KO. With limited USN mobility because of my flags, surface patrollers should be able to hold the Marshalls & HI. Four patrollers go to the USM to present a real threat of the KO. That should draw at least 3 lba for defense. If it is less I will go for the KO. With the POC surely heading to 29, Andy doesn’t patrol the CS. He defends the USM with all 4 available lba. With that, my marines/raiders now move to lock up the bases and protect the Marshalls/HI.
Andy keeps his USN CVs & CAs in port to preclude any losses from the IB. I sink the Hermes and put 1d on Formidable while Andy puts 2d on an lba and sinks a CA during D actions in Indo & USM. POC goes to 29.
IJN Report: Andy will have to get very lucky somewhere to pull this game out. In a closer game I would defend Indo/Marshalls/HI with 2 lba each (or 2, 1 & 3) backed up by a carrier in all 3. But now with such a commanding position I want to minimize the risk of losing Indo or the HI. So I decide to give up the Marshalls & put 3 lba each in Indo & HI. Holding these two areas gives me a very low risk path to a win. I should be able to easily hold Indo & the HI on T6. That plus the JI will keep the POC at 29. Then I will win if I hold only the JI on T7 & T8. In a T8 JI fight, I would have surface equality at a minimum and a small wrap if Andy does any surface patrols with USN ships other than the T8 guys. Plus I will have good air superiority. I can look for other opportunities to improve upon that position in T6 & T7.
Andy doesn’t patrol the Marshalls which helps as next turn Truk based ships can reach the HI. Andy decides he needs to make something good happen for him and sends carriers to Indo & HI. Formidable is sunk for no losses in Indo. I get N in the HI and the IB cripples Lex (the last thing Andy needed). With that Andy withdraws. The 3rd Marine invades Maloelop to give him a forward base. I base Yokosuka at Guad and Andy decides not to invade Guad with both his CS marines. POC stays @ 29.
IJN Report: This turn I want to hold Indo, JI and the HI. I’ll also patrol the NPO to have a flag there next turn for any T7 fight. I decide to defend the HI with the fleet as Andy might get lucky if I defend it with 6 lba. So I will use lba to defend Indo. Normally two lba would be plenty to hold Indo, as Andy has only one CV based in Australia that could attack. But I don’t want to take even that risk, so I put 3 lba there as I can easily afford it. I usually fight to prevent the USN from flagging the Marianas, Marshalls and SPO on T6 as I don’t want Truk to flip on T7. But Andy wisely patrols those areas heavily enough that I’m not going to try to beat him with the remaining 3 lba & BBs. And I don’t want to fight in an area where he might get a base with his Indo marine. So I put the 3 remaining lba in the CPO to either hold the area or get attrition on his CVs.
Andy would like any fight to be short so as to minimize risk to his CVs. But if he sends all available CVs, they will have to rebase outside the perimeter and he will have a very minimum threat to the JI next turn. He elects to send two heavy CVs and four CVLs. Wasp makes her SR to the Marshalls for more carrier threat to my interior on T7.
The D/N rolls continue to go my way as I get D in Indo and N in the CPO. I can only disable his Indo marine and the IB disables Essex in the CPO. I elect to keep my 3 marines at sea as they are not needed to prevent the USN getting the Philippines or Lae and I want the freedom to base them elsewhere at the end of this turn. I strongly consider abandoning the CPO saving my lba for T7 defense of the JI while my fleet controls the NPO. But I finally decide to stay as I probably can flag both those areas anyway and might get some CV attrition.
Another round in the CPO sees a CVL disabled while Andy shoots down the wounded LBA. I withdraw deciding to save my LBA for T7. Andy stays in Indo trying for N to get at my marines, but it is pure day again. I sink one BB and disable the other two forcing Andy to retreat.
I split my fleet roughly in half at YNY & Pearl for basing at the end of T6. That should make it easy to hold the NPO and JI on T7 while threatening POC takeaway in other areas. POC remains at 29.
IJN Report: Holding the JI/NPO will put the POC at 21 at the end of T7. With a bid of 6, I need to deny 3 POC on T8 for a 1 POC win. My two main options for T8 will be to deny the USN in the JI or deny the AI and hold the NPO. I will mostly position my fleet at Dutch Harbor so as to have a large raiding force to threaten the HI on T8.
With that in mind, I patrol the JI/NPO plus the AI (so as to have the flag in case I want to fight there on T8). I back up the JI & NPO with the remaining lba after Andy wisely patrols the Mari’s, CPO & HI with more patrollers than I want to risk trying to dislodge. My marines go to the AI/NPO so as to be able to base in D Harbor. I want that base invulnerable to an invasion threat on T8 which would dislodge my lba if I fight there. Plus they can threaten the expected USN base at J Isl on T8. He elects to position his remaining fleet for T8 rather than challenge me in an outgunned fight. The FB sinks Zuikaku in the only action. POC goes to 21.
IJN Report: All my ships go on raid for maximum flexibility for POC takeaway. I also can put 6 lba at D Harbor if the best course of action seems to include holding that area. After looking at Andy’s patrols I decide the to fight it out in the JI where I will be a big favorite. Fighting in the HI means fighting some of his lba which can produce significant luck swings. I am not interested in offering him a chance for luck swings which might go his way. And I am nervous that my lba might not hold the NPO if Andy gets some hot dice.
So it is the big T8 fight in the JI where all I need to do is deny his control for the win. I have a 2 ship wrap and go for N. I get lucky with 3 N actions in a row where I gradually whittle his patrollers & several CVs while maintaining a wrap. R4 is a D action. But Andy has lost 4 big CVs in the preceding N actions placing him at an even bigger disadvantage. Andy needs miracle dice, but they don’t come as the r4 & 5 D actions put him in a hopeless situation and force a concession.
It’s always fun playing a great player like Andy. We’ve had some great games, but this was not one of them. I got a big advantage on T2 sinking 3 CVs while losing only Hiryu. Andy had more bad luck on T3 as he could not sink my marines to save key bases despite having 4 bonus shots each. From there, I was able to play very conservatively to minimize any chances Andy could get lucky in a key battle to get back in the game. Andy tried several things, but nothing worked out for him.
USN Endgame Comments: I resign my game against Ed. The final tally would be IJN by 4 after the bid. The game was pretty much over after turn 2 but I tried to see if I could get some kind of dice break after that. Turn 8 was pretty symbolic of the game as we started out with 4 straight night actions when I really needed 4 straight day actions. Even then, I would have been a big dog in the fight. It was just an ugly game for the USN. Ed played his normal stellar game and pretty much took the smart, safe way, from T3 to T8 for the win. Congratulations Ed!