The I-Boat Raid and Individual CPO Withdrawal adjustments are in play.
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USN Report: NV, CA and the crippled MD(5d) escape from Pearl. In Indo, Repulse and POW(3d) slip away. No uncertain groups show up so I don't get any CV's to Australia. I elect to try something different and base both Hermes and Revenge back in Ceylon. POC at normal IJN +7.
USN Report: Without any US CV help out of Australia, I WANT to show Darren that there will be a fight in Indo. So, during the patroller stage, I send in Hermes and assorted other ships. The response should draw, I hope, either 3xLBA or 2xLBA/CVL. Either of these is great for me: 1) The 3xLBA should weaken his perimeter defense 2) 2xLBA/CVL will allow me to have a decent shot at sinking the CVL.
On the USN side of things, I decide that I am going to spread out my LBA in CS, USM and Mari's. Since I know that I am going to do that, I patrol only 3xCA. Armed with 4x healthy BB and 13 x CA(14 if you count MD(5d)), I am ready to defend the USM if I have too. My hope here is to keep the POC in check and perhaps kill some IJN flattops along the way.
The way things shake out, Darren places 3xLBA in Indo, 2xLBA in SPO while sending a medium task force down to the USM. Other carriers defend his perimeter while Shokaku heads into the CS. I elect to defend the CS and USM while attacking the SPO. I can't afford to lose the USM in the event of a few pure day rounds so I send in the bulk of my fleet and the Enterprise to back up my LBA. The Enterprise is there to pretty much guarantee that the IJN can't control the area while giving me a chance at a pursuit should a pure night come up and I remove his CV's. In the CS, I give myself a BB wrap on Shokaku if I get the night. Finally, I send in 4xCV to the SPO to save Lae and break the perimeter.
Expectations for the turn-I expect to lose 2xCV (in a worst case situation), save Lae, and have my ships well-based at NH and Guadalcanal. I think the IJN will lose 2-3 LBA, 2-3 CV and the POC will end at 13 to 15 (at the worst). I will be fighting the IJN carriers in USN flagged waters so that is the best that I can expect.
Pref rolls-Not the greatest. The IJN win in Indo, Mari's, Marshalls, and the CS. I get a minor victory in the SPO and we tie in the USM. Unlike, Darren in the Marianas, I failed to get the pure night action in either the CS or USM that I had hoped for....
Combat-Pretty much a disaster for the USN as Darren has a hot hand against USN air units, sinking/shooting down 5 of 6. It also gets a big disable on a 7th target.
SPO-Darren smokes 2xCV on rd 1. I manage to shoot down a single LBA while dinging the other LBA for 1d. I-Boat disables Lexington. Just wonderful. The debacle is complete when Darren's LBA(1d) sinks Saratoga on rd 2. I whiff and the IJN hold the area. So, the IJN's 9 non-bonus shots get 3 hits, perfect distribution, and 4 damage (12 total) on each of its damage die. In contrast, I get off 20 dice, for 2 hits, and a total of 5 damage.This is pretty much the game right here as the USN can't afford to go on a mission, get smoked, AND fail in that mission!
USM-Darren elects to shoot at both the Enterprise and the LBA during the day portion. I knew he would shoot at the Enterprise but had not expected him to shoot at the LBA with a night coming up. I thought he might target 1 or 2 BB's to soften things up for the night action which might help in the survivability of his carriers. It also would allow the IJN to stick around for possible future night rounds with only a single LBA to worry about. However, the LBA is a great target so long as you get it as it has the two-fold advantage of denying the POC and making HI easier to convert on T3. I guess it depends on how lucky you are feeling as far as what you decide to do. Everything comes out great for Darren as Zuikaku blows away the LBA (2 hits, 10 damage) while Hiryu and Soryu sink Enterprise. Enterprise sinks Zuikaku while the 10th misses Haruna. Then, during the night portion, my combined night forces gang up on Soryu and Hiryu but manage to sink only Soryu. Other losses are light as only the crippled MD(5d) is sunk from both sides.
CS-In Darren's only miss against a USN air unit, the Shokaku whiffs and is crippled by the 7th. The brave sailors of the Indianapolis pursue the crippled carrier and her lone CA escort. This is a bit of a flyer but the payoff is big enough, IMO, so I try it. After all, he will not be shooting the carrier until the escort is gone. Well, like the rest of the turn, the result is swift as Indi is sunk on it's first pursuit round. It whiffs in return fire.
Indo-I lose Formidable but shot down the 21st.
Overall-Darren cheats himself out of a perfect round against USN CV's when the I-Boat just disables, not sinks, the Lexington. Somehow, I think he will except the results...but, perhaps knocked dizzy by all those exploding ships, he will sue for peace???
Seriously, this one is pretty much over. Four CV's, Formidable, one LBA, and 2 surface lost in exchange for 2xCV and 2xLBA. POC soars to 17. No hole in perimeter. I had hopes for at least an even start to this VITP game but it seemed more like a bad WAS game. What joy!
IJN Comments: I was very tempted to send only two LBA to Indo, but in the end a safety first mentality won out. I expected the Marianas LBA, but I was surprised that Andy split his other two LBA between Coral Sea and the USM; that tempted me into sending carriers to all three USN home areas, figuring I had a good chance of shooting down an LBA ahead of the normal T3 showdown in HI. And when I saw Andy’s raiding move, I felt pretty good – Attu and Midway locked up without a shot, and lots of USN CVs (including Enterprise in the USM) in harm’s way. The dice very much favored me, but going in I always felt that the worst-case scenario for me was definitely a lot better for me than the worst-case scenario for Andy was for him.
USN Report: I elect to try and save Hawaii this turn. My thinking is that with a lack of USN CV's(2 at the most for T5), it will be difficult to break the IJN perimeter on T5. Thus the IJN can just fall back, if it doesn't just win the game on T5, and win the game easily. If I had to rate my chances in the game right now, against this opponent, it would certainly be less than 10%, maybe less than 5%. So, I will take my shot here. I have got to get a pure night action (16%) on the first round. While it will not guarantee that my marines will get through, I hope that it will allow me a chance to hold Hawaii in the end. While my fleet will be exposed, I have to hope that I will have enough pieces left over to make a game of this!
If a night action, I figure that Darren will either 1) "give up" Hawaii and pound the USN fleet or 2) put enough carriers "on the line" (The most he can place is 5 non-bonus shots apiece on my 2 marines) that he will have 4 carriers at risk after covering the one wrap and the Lexington. I would then hope that he either fails to remove a marine or that my LBA will stand tall against his remaining air units.
The first 2 rounds are both day before we get a night action on round 3. The first round is close as the IJN directs 6 bonus shots against each of the marines. One is sunk and the other is hit for 1d and disabled to Australia. The IJN does take some hits to it's carriers but in the end easily holds Hawaii and rips apart the USN fleet. In fact, the last salvo against 8 retreating USN CA's, SINKS all on them, while taking no damage in return!
My only hope is my lone surviving marine unit....
IJN Comments: The die has been cast – I couldn’t blame Andy for risking everything at this point in the Hawaiians, but I did get the important Day Action in R1 to start that gave me the latitude I needed to remove the two Marines and get a head start on shooting down the (only) 5 USN LBA. From there, Pearl was virtually secured, and it was always likely that the USN would take significant losses. Apart from achieving an actual KO in Three, this is pretty much the dream IJN scenario; the only minor downside is the CV attrition I myself have suffered, but I can certainly live with it!
USN Report: This is pretty much a non-turn. My marine will sail into Indo to try and invade the Phil's. My ship situation is so bad that I elect to try and get some attrition in the USM, even though the IJN has a wrap and the flag. I am hoping for at least an even pref roll which would enable me to get rid of the wrap before a night fell.
Unfortunately, I miss the needed pref roll in the USM and the Wasp is sunk. I do win the Indo pref roll and the marine takes the Phil's.
Misc-The game is classic in that it shows what the domino effect can have on a player. T2 CV sinkings leads to Hawaii gamble on T3 to the USM gamble on T4. All went bad and the USN odds get lower and lower.
IJN Comments: At this point, I’m just trying not to be stupid – I have surface ships to burn in banking my huge advantage, so I use the threat of converting Samoa to ensure I can lock up Guadalcanal and hopefully also take down 1 Mar on its way to the Philippines. I would have gladly traded Wasp for 1 Mar, but regardless, I’m still in a hugely comfortable position, even if I now have a thorn in my side to purge.
USN Report: Down to my last stand. I must prevent the Phil's from falling or the game is at an end. I feel I get a bit of a break when I am able to get 4 shots at each on his NLF's if a day action occurs. I had expected that I would only get 2 at each one at the start of the turn. That increases my odds from 8.5% (.44 x.44 x.44) up to 34% (.70 x.70 x.70)!
The pref rolls give me a shot but they are very sad for the USN. A miss on Sase, a 1d on the Kure followed by a 3d, disable on Yoko.
With all other areas meaningless, the USN tosses in the towel. Congratulations Darren!
IJN Comments: I hate being in such a hugely dominant position, spending so much time looking to guarantee the best possible move instead of just looking to make a good move (i.e., knowing there isn’t a perfect move as such). I know I can lock upt the game by invading the Philippines to secure the “full Applebaum;” after much consideration, I hedge my bets and opt against the move that would give me the best chance of taking the Philippines and immediately winning the game – putting most of my fleet in Indo to guarantee that an invasion will succeed at Night – because if Andy gets really lucky and does retain the Philippines, I would be giving the RN a chance to take a large chunk out of my fleet and potenntially even up my huge surface advantage. But no matter; the preference rolls in the Marianas don’t go my way, but Andy’s combat dice do, and that’s that. Not much glory for me in victory, but a win is a win is a win!
USN Endgame Report: Darren kicked my butt. Up, down, all-around. I got behind on turn 2, losing 4 USN CV's AND failing to take the SPO. After that, I felt I needed to take some high risk gambles, none of which paid off. Congrats to Darren for keeping the pressure on and riding the early advantage all the way to the win! Best of luck to Darren in his remaining games!