The I-Boat Raid and North Pacific Option adjustments are in play.
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IJN Report: A wild and wacky turn one! John and I are playing with options 1 and 2a. The bid is 4.5. Since we are playing with 2a, I opt to do something a little different on T1. Figuring that John would send any uncertain groups to the NPO, to score the POC, I send Nagato, Mutsu and Hosho into Indo. This should give me a little more firepower with which to hit the British BB's. Even allowing a pursuit if one of them is limping away. Now, while the British BB's don't often figure in on the game, they can, especially towards the end of the game. In this game, w/option 2a, I figure it is basically a free shot. That all sounds well and good, but the last time I played John, I tried something similar (Hosho and Mutsu) and it did not work as I liked. So this time I beefed it up and added Nagato (a decision I would be very thankful for later!) to the formula! Surely, the Brits would be completely wiped out...and in short order!
In response, John adds the Exeter to the mix! Round one sees me completely whiff (4xLBA vs 5th and Hosho vs Exeter). That adds a lot of pressure for round 2 as I still need to shoot down the 5th and try to avoid a possible night action on round 3. I decide to shoot the same way on round two as I did on round one. More trouble as I whiff on the Exeter and hit the 5th once for 3d! This is really getting ugly as John could manage to get the 5th(3d) out of Indo AND have a wrap on the Hosho during a night action! The 3rd round is a d/n action! Now I need to shoot down the 5th(3d) AND get rid of at least one British ship. I elect to fire 3xLBA at the 5th(3d), LBA at Repulse and Hosho at Exeter. I finally shoot down the 5th(3d) with a second hit for 1d. Whew! I also cripple and disable the Repulse. In the ensuing night action, I sink the Exeter and damage the POW for 2d. Still, John will get to fire the 5th(3d), the POW, and Exeter! I dodge a disaster as John misses Hosho and Mutsu while disabling the Nagato. I throw caution to the wind and pursue POW(2d) with Hosho and Mutsu. The fourth round night action sees POW(2d) sunk and Mutsu taking 2d. So, I do manage to shoot down the 5th and sink 2 British ships but not the 2 that most people think of (POW and Repulse). Man, what a ride!
In HI, I manage to sink 5xBB and a CA. I also cripple a BB. Much better than the 2xBB I sunk against him in the last T10 game we played! I-Boat whiffs. John get groups W and X into HI and scuttles Enterprise and Lexington over to Australia. Since a group did not show up in the NPO, the POC ends at IJN +7.
USN Comment: While the Exeter was lost, it was
worth the investment just to make Andy sweat! And I came out of it with
the Repulse (albeit it will be three turns before she's ready to sail) and two
damage on Mutsu. Not a bad trade. But boy would it have been sweet
if that third round had been a night action!
IJN Comments: Interesting game so far. Taking Midway was very good for me as only Guad is left to close out the perimeter. While my shooting was fairly cold at the start, it certainly heated up against your LBA. My CV situation is good at this point due to your own cool spell in Hawaii. Your lack of LBA gives me some options for this turn. As does the 2nd Marine for you! Both your CV and surface fleet are in great shape. Perhaps we will rumble soon...
IJN Report: The USN CV's continue to be my biggest problem. The POC count is also a main concern as is the 2nd Marine unit based out of Australia. Generally speaking, games in which the USN has a bunch of CV's makes it increasing hard for the IJN to max out the POC. The reasoning is simple, while the IJN is missing the USN CV's, they usually are taking losses. Those losses make the IJN war machine start to cough and sputter. Fortunately, it has not been as horrible as it could have been. I have currently lost only 4 carriers which is acceptable at this point in the game. Unfortunately, John has only lost one.
USM-In order to accomplish my goals for this turn, I will try to force a big fight in the USM. I give John a 4 lap on surface and a 2 lap in the air in an unflagged area. If he fight me here, it will give me the opportunity to either destroy his CV's/fleet or gain valuable POC in this 4 POC swing area. It also could have the added bonus of making Johnston Island/Hawaii, invasion proof and cheap to hold on T5.
Indo-In order to counter the 2nd Marine unit, expected to travel into Indo (The best option), I elect to go with 5xLBA. While I am not thrilled with piling that many LBA (I would have liked just 4) in there, anything less could have meant facing 5xUSN CV's, 2xBrit CVL's along with the 2nd Marine running around! In a battle, I would have had to ignore the 2nd Marine and concentrated on winning an extremely close battle for the area! A secondary option I had was to back up 4xLBA with a CV but 1) I hate to lose a CV in a US flagged area 2) It kind of came down to swapping the 5th LBA for a CV in another area...I felt it wasn't gaining enough to put a CV at risk, thus I rejected it.
JI/Mari's/Marsh/HI-All of them are kind of the same. I back up each with a carrier in order to get attrition. JI and HI get a bigger carrier as those areas are worth more POC. In the case of JI, I am trying to protect the repairing Kaga as well.
SPO/CS-To try and take some of the heat off JI/Mari's/Marsh/HI, I send Yamato into the CS to try and steal some POC. In the SPO, I have 2 naked, except for Nagato, NLF's! These areas should draw some USN CV's away from offensive operations.
Turn wrap-up-John surprises me a bit and goes heads up with me in many areas. This can prove to be disastrous for the USN on T4 as a good round of IJN fire could eliminate a few carriers making it impossible to break holes in the IJN perimeter. In this case, I had given John the SPO hole but that was fine with me if I can hold the Indo/Mari's/Marsh/HI line after T5. Something I could do if I sink a couple of CV's and stop the 2nd Marines. After seeing John's raiders, I elect to send the I-Boat to JI instead of Indo. JI offered me a better chance at saving Kaga (via sending home a CV) vs stopping the 2nd Marine at night. I also figured that I had a decent chance at having an NLF survive the SPO battle. That would give me 2xNLF to retake the Phils on T5 if the 2nd Marine got through.
The results of combat were OK for the IJN on the POC front but poor on the CV front. On the plus side, an even pref roll in Indo allows all 5xLBA to sink the 2nd Marine and the I-Boat finally comes through and sinks the Lexington to save the repairing Kaga! Yamato decontrols the CS, disabling PA. Takao sinks Indi in the Marshalls. Vince and ID are sunk in HI and the USM. The downside is that Zuiho, Ryujo and Hiyo can only disable Wasp, Sara and the big "E". All three IJN flattops are sent to the bottom with multiple hits on all three! Yamash whiffs in the Mari's and is sunk in return. Also, Takao, Maya, Yokosuka and Sasebo are all sunk. The turn ends with the IJN having a 5 to 4 edge in carriers. Not good, but if not for the I-Boat, it could have been 5 to 4 for the USN! POC goes to 26.
IJN Report: The mission is the same as last turn, sink USN CV's and increase the POC, hopefully maxing it. I would like to stop an invasion of either the Phil's or Lae as well. I am again faced with dealing with more USN CV's than normal in trying to figure out my move.
HI-Since only Guad-based Hornet(1d) can reach HI, a single LBA will do there. I also place Pearl-based Mutsu(3d) on patrol, just in case.
Indo will have 4xLBA escorting Kure to Lae.
JI/CPO/Mari's all will have carriers and fleets in-line with what John can get to those areas from either Guad or Australia.
Marshalls-I fiddle with 2xLBA here but end up going with just one. Of all the areas, this one is the least damaging for me. It could prove costly though if John were to flag it a second time and flip the bases on T6.
Results-John does exactly as I would have done. He sends a suicide CV to stop
the Kure NLF in Indo and the other CV's to the Marshalls. Still, after seeing
the USN raiders, I think I have a decent shot a sinking two USN CV's this turn.
After all, the Wasp would surely be sunk in Indo and I would be targeting two
more CV's in the Marshalls.
Unfortunately for me, a night action in Indo allows the Wasp and the Brit CVL's
to escape after the Royal Navy blows away the Kure! In the Marshalls, I figure
that I will be shooting at both the Enterprise and the Hornet(1d) with my LBA
and I-Boat. I elect to try and keep my odds fairly even, LBA vs Enterprise at
30% and I-Boat vs Hornet(1d) at 28%. My other option was LBA vs Hornet(1d) at
36% and I-Boat at Enterprise at 22%. I guess I should have gone with option 2 as
Enterprise is crippled and Hornet(1d) missed! Perhaps I made the wrong call on
that one... The 21st is shotdown in return fire.
So, the Kure and the 21st are destroyed while the 1st Marine invades Lae. The turn is a bit deflating as USN CV's continue a pretty charmed life in this game. The POC is maxed but I see multible holes in the perimeter, US bases into both Indo and the SPO, a block and bases threatened in the Marshalls, and a very strong CV and surface fleet for the USN! Can the IJN hold on?
IJN Comments: Tough turn for the USN. An incredible turn for the IJN. Unfortunately, I can't take the credit.
With hindsight being 20/20.-The Hawaii adventure ended up being a disaster. The failure to secure both the flag in the Mari's (at the least) and the Phils was indeed a catastrophe. They should have both been attained, especially since you won the first preference roll in the Mari's. I think we both were in agreement that their should have been a CV in Indo (that should have gotten you the Phil's). You then would have had the power to wipe out both NLF's, either in that first day round or in an air raid. The Mari's force could then have consisted of 2xCV and 4xCVL which would have given you a little more pop.
Real world-The Marshalls force was perfect. As far as your targeting question in the Mari's after I disabled your CV-I would have put the CVL on the LBA and a CV on each of the BC's. It is just a token on the LBA but control of the Mari's and the very real potential of flipping Truk was the real goal. You had not lost a carrier so the most you were risking is 3 more non-bonus shots, if my LBA stayed, at your CV. The sub would have targeted a carrier. I can see why you targeted the way you did though. I think your losing 4 carriers made you less amenable to maybe having a 5th carrier lost. If the 3xCVL are not sunk in Hawaii, it may have made a difference for you.
The single Mari's POC was also tremendous. My job as the IJN (figuring a hold of JI/NPO for 4 POC vs a USN gain of 12 for a net POC of 8 POC for a total of 20 going into T8) just became light years easier as I no longer need to fight in the Jap islands.
USN Comments: An incredible brain hiccup costs me badly this turn. When I sent my raiders to Andy, I thought I had a 4+ CV in Indonesia to go with the British. And I thought I had the surplus units for a little raid into the Hawaiis... Ooops.... D'oh!
If I'd just double-checked my move, I'd have had 4 bonus shots extra in Indo during the day action and during air raids if needed. That would have been enough to stop Sasebo most likely. I'd also have had 2 more bonus shots in the Marianas -- spread across two more carriers. That'd have let me put hit every battle cruiser in the first round -- while shooting down the LBA.
Instead, the IJN saves the Philippines, Truk, 1 POC, the flag threat to Saipan, and even retains an outside shot at Indo. Ugh!
IJN Report: IJN report-My goals for this turn were to try to give John too many areas to attack. I wanted to keep the POC count as high as I could. If that meant sacrificing men and material, so be it! The problem was, John has a boadload of carriers and I don't know if I can hold/threaten more than JI, NPO, CPO (maybe) and HI!
At the end of T5, I based most of my fleet at Pearl since John had the Marshalls block. In response, John pulled his slow BB's down to Samoa in anticipation of what could be a big fight in Hawaii this turn. A classic move, counter-move, situation. As I do in all my games, I try to figure out the best run-out of a game starting from turns 4-5. I don't always like what I see and right now I figured that I was headed toward to fight to decontrol Japan on T8. And that was if I could either pick off a couple of POC or be able to hold an extra area. Picking off a POC or two might be feasible but trying to hold an extra area would be difficult due to John's huge carrier force and substantial fleet.
My "given" areas are JI and the NPO for 4 POC. I elect to go with just 4 patrollers, 2 in my "given" areas and 2 fast 118's in the CPO. I went with the fast guys in case I could not back them up and they had to run! This setup allowed me to have few guys at risk and keep John guessing as to what my motives were for the turn. The bad side of this is that it would put a lot of pressure on my 5xLBA. I would love to control HI and the CPO this turn in order to gain an "extra" area in the NPO for next turn. However, I am not sure that I can! I do know that I can win a Hawaii fight against his 11 operational carriers as I have 5xLBA and 5xCV that I can place in Hawaii. After that, I wasn't real sure what else I could do this turn. The bases in the Marshalls were certainly at risk as was a flagging of the Mari's, which could lead to the downfall of Truk on turn 7! I had left 3xBB's in the Phils last turn as I knew they would be part of a POC denying try somewhere. I also had 2xNLF's which I planned to send into Indo (To try and save-guard the Phils) to try and keep John's carriers occupied. "Occupied"-another way of saying that he would be blowing stuff up with them!
Then came John's patrollers...of interest to me were what he would put in the Mari's, Marsh and HI. The Marshalls was pretty deadly as he coupled a couple of surface in with a CVL which is really hard to get both so I ruled that area out right away. In the Mari's, his 3xCA matched perfectly with the 3xBB that I knew could reach there. I knew that is what I would do there to try and decontrol that area, if I could get a night action in my flagged area. In HI, there are no patrollers at all. This is great news as I know that he can't possibly get the POC for it and hence, lost just about all value to the USN! While I do need to worry about a possible marine unit coming in, I feel that I can be a little freer with my LBA placement. I divert an LBA to each of the Mari's and Marshalls. In the case of the Marshalls, it is just to make John use up carriers to shoot it down. In the case of the Mari's, it is provide backup in case one of my BB's miss during a night action. The I-Boat would sail their for the same reason. My last 3xLBA would go to Hawaii as I need that POC for myself!
After the marine units are placed, none in HI, I am free to NOT back-up Hawaii with ANY surface. While this is good for me, it is also a very valid move for John. John would love to break into the northeast corner by taking Midway. In order to do so, he needs to have at least one marine based out of the Marshalls. Since I had just moved an LBA into the Marshalls, he would need to have 2 or risk my LBA disabling away his marine and trashing his plans. Remember, he can't sneak a single marine in under darkness or else he would be invading the base. John wants the bases to flip at the end of the turn and then land the marines. Another good counter-move by John! While that is good for John, it is also good for me as I move just about all my fleet into the CPO. I back it up with a couple of CV's so John does not send a couple of BB's up there to deny me the POC/N.E. perimeter during a night action. I also backup Hawaii with 3xCV to make it even more unappealing. Before John's raiders show up, I feel pretty good about my move. I have channeled John's move into Indo, Mari's and the Marshalls. I feel that John will not attack either the CPO or HI, thus gaining a bonus POC this turn in the CPO and another POC in the NPO next turn. That should put me at 27-28 POC going into next turn, depending on what happens in the Mari's this turn. Since I am not favored in the preference roll in the Mari's, I put the count at 27 after this turn and 19 after T7 with John based out of Truk. Depending on what happens at either Midway or Johnston on turn 7, would determine what I need to do on T8, which is likely a decontrol of JI for the game. With the Brits at his side and my raiding options severely curtailed, that is one battle that I don't wish to see!
Then come John's raiders...the expected moves into both the Marshalls and Mari's...a "funky" move as John called it into HI... BUT no additional move into Indo with USN air power. The absence of at least a single USN CV (ala Wasp on T5) in Indo was so glaring that I touched base on it with John when I sent for the preference rolls as the odds of him stopping my SNLF's were greatly reduced if a day roll appeared. As it turns out, John had not missed it, but, in moving his guys around, moved it out. It would turn out to be a big break for me...
The pref rolls are true as it is day everywhere. First up in the battle order is the Mari's so there will be no air raids on the Phil's if I get a SNLF into there. John's combined fire shoots down the 24th, misses the Kongo and cripples/disables the Haruna. I good break made even better when night falls for round 2. My 2xBB's manage to disable 2 patrollers setting up the I-Boat for glory. The I-Boat's commanders shot is true and the New Orleans slips beneath the waves. Wow! I save the POC and eliminate the threat of Truk falling... To add insult to injury, the charmed Kongo, after facing 4 bonus air shots and then 10 more bonus shots gets away with just 1 damage! In Indo, with just 9 non-bonus shots spread across 2 SNLF's, one of them is sunk but the other garrisons the Phil's. This is the predicted outcome and it is up to the 2 Brit CVL's to get 4 hits on 6 air-raid dice. They whiff and I find myself with a NO-FLY zone for the Allied LBA in the Mari's for next turn. These results were unexpected and perhaps should not have happened...
What I did expect to happen was the crushing of the 3xCVL's that arrived, out of the fog, in Hawaii. Each of John's CVL's take fire from an LBA and a CV. All are sunk. John's return fire nets 2 hits, both on the Shokaku, sinking her. John took a gamble that if there was some kind of night action, that he could get a shot at some of my CV's. Even during a day action, he was hoping to sink a couple of IJN CV's. A good trade if it happens. An interesting plan which I have looked at more closely now that the turn is over.
First, a disclaimer- I don't think that John would have gone to Hawaii if he had caught his Indo error and placed a CV there. He would have needed the CVL's to fill the void in either the Mari's or possibly the Marshalls. With additional carrier help in the Mari's, he then may have flagged it.
However, let us look at it the way it was. The pluses and minuses of the surface ships: They are fairly safe as they would only be shot at with CV deck guns during a pure night and only LBA during a day/night action. If it's a day action, they are likely to be ignored and can probably waltz away in a retreat. The downside is that they are slow and would be a threat if moved forward into the Marshalls where a base is sure to be. In a retreat, they need to go to the back lines and are effectively, out of the fight for next turn. They are also bucking the odds of getting a night action of some kind. The pluses and minuses of the CVL's: They hope to get two hits with distribution. If they get the distribution, they have the following odds of sinking the IJN CV's: 40% on Soryu, 32% on Shokuku and 24% on Akagi. To me, if you add those numbers together (96%), gets me one kill if you figure a pure day action. Minuses: On my side of the ledger, I figure that I should sink close to all three CVL's based on 30% on each CVL coming from my LBA AND 66%, 66%, 55% coming from my CV's at each target (For totals of 96%, 96% and 85%), based on even distribution. Overall, I view this move with mixed reaction. John's overall odds of getting 2 IJN carriers, going in, was decent enough considering the odds of some kind of night showing up on the preference roll. It was basically taking a shot. The main problem that I have with it is the loss of flexability and effectiveness. Flexability- Assuming a day action occurs along with the 3 to 1 exchange-The USN is less dangerous as the IJN does not have to account for all the multible locations that the USN CVL's could show up at over the next 2 turns. Effectiveness-This deals with a big turn 8 battle that I feel we were headed for. A USN CVL that cripples or disables an IJN CV on T8 is far more valuable than that same result here on T6. However, like I said before, it was taking a shot. It just did not work out this time.
In the Marshalls, I am torn between targeting a marine and the Hornet(1d), with my LBA. The Hornet(1d) would be nice as it would be one less carrier if I can hit it with enough damage. The marine unit would help deny John's island hopping campaign into the N.E. corner. Since I figured that I stood a chance of sinking 3xCVL in HI, I elect to shoot at Hornet(1d) to further reduce his carrier force so I could be on a more level playing field in a T8 battle. I hope to be able to deal with the marines on the next turn! Unlike last turn in the Marshalls, I guess right this time, hitting (no disable) the Hornet(1d) for 2 damage, sinking her.
The overall results of this turn are fantastic for the IJN! I only give up a single POC (to 28), get a 4 to 1 carrier exchange, save Truk from possible conversion, deny the Phil's to the American dogs, and create a safe NPO for T7. I wish I could take credit for it, but I can't. I feel for John on this turn. One little error led to a cascade of poor results, across the board, for him.
IJN Report: My first goals this turn are to flag the NPO and JI. That will make the POC at 20 going into T8. The NPO just needs 2xCA but the Jap Islands will need more. My secondary goals are to set up a potential raid into Hawaii next turn and stop any key marine placements. In looking at John's marine placements, it is a no brainer to figure out that one is headed for the Phil's, one is going toward Johnston, and one is going after Midway. He has an extra marine based out of the Marshalls but I figure it will go into the CPO as well. The reasoning is that John must invade Midway or he will not be able to patrol the AI next turn. And he KNOWS that I will send a suicide CV after it if he doesn't! I will also patrol the AI with a couple of CA's as I want the flag. Just in case I go there on T8 with a surface force.
The turn is a quick one as we both go to secure what we can as far as POC. My SNLF's pull back into safe zones. Kure is headed toward Dutch to protect against John's marine on T8.
IJN raiders-I am down to just 4 of my original carriers so I can't go hog wild here. I must then decide to either go after the lone marine in Hawaii or the two in the CPO (Trying to go after all three would be way to risky). As stopping two marines is far harder that stopping just one, I elect to go after just the Hawaii marine. As it is, my odds are just 68% to do so. However, the payoff is huge and well worth the risk. The payoff is that it would give me another option to win the game on T8. I will be able to fly my LBA in Hawaii, alongside my BB's based out of Dutch. If successful, I will have the option of decontrolling JI, or HI, or any two single POC areas on the board. I could also hold the NPO for a win.
Hawaii-A roll of 1,3 means a day/night action. The Junyo lines up and gets two hits, for 9 damage, sinking the 1st Marines. Sweet! This will mean that John's forces in Hawaii will be out of the action in a N.E. fight. Unless he bases them out of Samoa but that has it's own problems. As you look at the board, the slow USN BB's had gone their earlier (missed SR's). I am unsure why the Monterey joined that group. It could be that John wanted to go with double-patrolling CVL's in the AI and NPO on T8. Or maybe to help hammer the Junyo during a day action!
Conclusion-That result should keep John's hands full trying to figure out the right mix of patrollers for JI, AI, NPO and HI on T8. It will be extremely difficult as he will also need to guard against my SNLF's in other areas. As I await John's fire for round one, I can't help but think about this cat and mouse game we are playing. The game has entered into T8. Can this little mouse survive or will I be eaten by the cat?
USN Comments: Andy's goal is to give himself more options and to give me more things to have to worry about come next turn. His raid into the Hawaiians accomplishes exactly that just as the Marianas fight did the turn before. Unfortunately, this mouse has almost 30 ships and 6 LBA next turn -- so I'm not sure who's the mouse that's being toyed with!
IJN Pre-Combat Comments: Pre-combat-Japan is interesting. If I were going for control, I would want a day action. If John had more patrollers, say 14+, I also would want day. However, John only has 9 and I think you need to judge what is the best way to win. During a night, I can get almost 95% odds on removing each of the 7 surface ships. Then my LBA, if it came down to just them, would have a 95% chance shot at each of the CVL's. I like those odds!
The main difference in day vs night is the amount of dice thrown and defense factors. I hope the 51 vs 41 dice thrown will result in more even results. I also will be going against far fewer defense factors as during an air battle, I will be targeting his carriers, not his surface patrollers. My main worry is that a bad air round, shooting mostly non-bonus dice, would put me behind. John could then control the air with most of his patrollers still around.
So, I will call for a night action, even though it will put me behind in any future day battles. It is dangerous but should work so long as I don't shoot horribly. Then again, if I shoot terribly, it would not matter if it were day or night!
John accepts the night in Japan and gets at least a portion of day in the Mari's and the SPO.
IJN Comments: Both of the CVL's are disabled to decontrol the area. Whew! T8 battles always make me nervous and this was no exception! Thank you for a great game! I will include more in my final report. Map is attached with results noted after round one.
After writing my pre-combat report, I realized that I didn't detail the defense factors of each preference option.
During a day, I would have had 41 shots, spread over 13 targets (I would have ignored the Hermes), with 33 defense factors.
During a night action, I would have 51 shots, spread over 7 surface patrollers, with just 16 defense factors.
This influenced my night call in Japan...but it still made me nervous to give up air superiority. If my night forces were to leave one or two of his surface patrollers, my odds of winning the game would be greatly reduced.
Combat results-My CA in the SPO is sunk. In the Mari's, Sasebo is disabled but Yokosuka is damaged for 2 during the day portion of day/night. The deck gun of the Bunker Hill falls short and Yokosuka(2d) invades the Phil's. With the USN LBA disabled, the area is decontrolled. However, this battle meant nothing in the grand scheme of things as Japan would decide this one.
Japan-round one night action-I am facing a wrap of 2 during the night action. I elect to put Soryu, Amagi and Unryu on the line as I know that John will add Hermes on the line. John counters this with putting Hermes and CV12/CV18, on the line. A good move as it will now allow him to hit Kaga and Akagi as well. My amassed surface fire on the British and US surface forces is true, as all seven ships are removed. Not without some anxiety though, as 3 of them were just barely taken out...even facing just 5% survival rates. John's fire takes out Akagi, Kaga, Soryu, Unryu and assorted surface ships. He misses Amagi and several CA's. His night wrap heading into round two, with Hermes on the line, will be just one.
Japan-round two day action-After my successful night mission, I only have the two USN CVL's to remove. My 27 shots do not miss and the area is decontrolled. Whew! The game ends at this point.
Summary-Assuming the LBA's destruction, the USN gains 13 POC for the turn. 20 POC-13 POC=7 minus the 4.5 bid=2.5 net total after T8. In hindsight, I should have had a single CA on patrol in the CPO. It would have drawn a bigger force to defeat it. I also gave thought to having Ryuho and Oi raid the AI. Perhaps I should have done that as well...I knew the Mari's situation would be really close.
Overall, a tough game to play. Missing John's CV's in those early turns really put a lot of pressure on the IJN. I really wasn't liking my chances in the end game until I sunk Hornet/3xCVL's AND saved the POC/Truk/Mari's on T6. I then had the Junyo come through on T7, putting even more pressure on John's basing for T8. In fact, Bunker Hill, 2xCA and a 597 from T7 had to base back in Samoa to cover Hawaii on T8. John had a lot to cover on T8 and did a great job with his patrollers in the JI, AI, NPO and HI. If he put more or less in any one area, I may have switched from the eventual attack on Japan. I am just thankful that I came out with the W in this one! Turn 8 battles are always scary to me. Thanks John! Best of luck with the rest of your games!
IJN Comments: Thanks John! I don't even want to think about what would have happened if not for T6. I suppose it would have come down to me having to still decontrol Japan but you would have had a huge night wrap and many extra carriers. THAT would have been really scary! A have a couple of questions for you, if you care to share.
What ideas did you pick up?
Had I gone with Oi and Ryuho in AI, what would you have done there? And would it have changed what you did in the SPO and Mari's?
Would you have called night, in JI, as the IJN, in this case? If day, would you have shot at pats or carriers?
USN Comments: Andy asked what ideas I picked up. I'll try to illuminate them here. First, with respect to turn eight, I think I had to get lucky since I was already behind at that point. The one thing I didn't want to see on the first round was a day followed by night, so I gambled that I could destroy the IJN CV while keeping 1-3 surface patrollers. It didn't pan out -- as Andy's fire was true. It might have been "easier" to win in daylight combat only -- but only if one disregards the odds that the IJN will win a night round in the early going anyway. I'd have agreed to day if Andy had suggested it as well.
As the IJN I'd probably have gone for day and shot at carriers with the idea that, even if it didn't work out, that the USN would have so little air power left that my surface fleet could eliminate the rest of the patrollers.
However, the big lesson that I picked up in this game is not tactical. Back in Andy's write-up for Turn Four, he indicated choosing a strategy based on what kind of endgame he wanted to play out. While I've certainly calculated swing from Turn 6 onward, this was a new twist for me. Sure, I've done the same kind of thing on a limited basis (e.g., made sure SPO or CPO was under my control on Turn 5), but never in as sweeping a fashion as Andy outlines.
The IJN, of course, wants to finish Turn Five with 29 POC and the full Applebaum. However, unless the USN is thoroughly beaten, the IJN can rarely manage such a feat. But what about steering the holes in the full Applebaum towards those one wishes? Are you willing to accept an enemy Guadalcanal, South Pacific, Lae, and U.S. Mandate? Or would you prefer an enemy held NE-corner (Attu, Dutch Harbor, and Midway)? If you can't hold both do you give up Indonesia or the Hawaiians? Obviously, in each case, I want to give up as little as possible, but the IJN can pick the area based on its strengths and weaknesses. I may have to raise my IJN bid a notch.