The I-Boat Raid and CPO Withdrawal adjustments are in play.
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IJN Report: A good start to the game as 7 BB's and
a CA are sunk at Pearl. In Indo, the 5th AF and Repulse are destroyed. Groups W,
X, and Y come on the board in Hawaii. POC at normal 7.
IJN Report: I go with fairly standard patrols to keep my options open. Joe elects to place his LBA in Indo(2) and Mari's(1). This pretty much gives me a green light to head into the Allied home areas and still have some carriers left over for some flag defenses. I counter the USN LBA in Indo with 4xLBA, Junyo and Zuiho. This should setup a fairly even fight if the USN brings in all 3xCV based in Australia once I throw in the I-Boat. However, Joe's raiders surprise me by challenging me in the CPO, USM, CS and Indo! As the IJN, I am loving this as all 5 USN CV's are potentially matched up head to head with IJN CV's. Four of those USN CV's have entered IJN areas so I will get the +2 on the preference die roll. Even in the USM, a normal pref roll will get me a d/n which is perfectly fine with me. While I will be out-shot 20-14, I can afford the trades, he can't. The move into Indo is especially puzzling to me. I could understand it if he brought in all 3 USN CV's but not 2. To me, he is just asking to have his carriers hit with little chance to win the area. With normal pref and shot rolls, I have a chance to do some real damage to the USN CV's!
Fate then steps in and gives the IJN a hard slap in the face. The preference rolls where all the USN CV's lie, are night. It even tosses in the CS for good measure. So, suddenly, the USN has zero carriers at risk while the IJN has six at risk! To make matters worse, Indo is now at risk. I do manage to win the Mari's along with the insignificant SPO and Marshall rolls. In combat, we get the following results:
Indo-I lose Junyo and see Zuiho disabled during the opening night action. The I-Boat then disables Saratoga. At that point, it is up to my LBA. They come through by sinking Form and Hermes while dis'd Indom. The Allied fire-back hits 2 LBA for 1d each and the Allies withdraw. One disaster avoided!
CPO-Ryujo is crippled/dis and Soryu is disabled. USN holds the area.
Marsh-Both Aussie CA's go down!
SPO-The last Aussie is sent to the bottom.
CS-I hit the Houston for 1d as the Hosho is disabled away. I stay for rd 2 and sink the Houston. Mikuma is then sunk.
USM-The Zuik is crippled during the night action while I sink the patrolling Portland. Tone is sunk. The Big E sinks Zuikaku(3d) to finish that area.
NPO-Chicago dis'd the Aoba to hold the area.
The turn could have been a lot worse. I managed to only lose 2 carriers and have a 3rd crippled. The bright side is that I gained 11 POC to go to 18. I also win the surface attrition battle, 5 to 2. The dark side is the potential opportunity of sinking multiple USN CV's. In fact, the USN CV's come out of the turn unscathed which is never good for the IJN.
IJN Report: With a bid of 6, I really need to start sinking USN CV's as they tend to come back with a vengeance in the late game. So, I decide to try and finish off Pearl while also putting pressure on Midway and Samoa. I modify my Hawaii attack by going with 5xLBA against Joe's 6xLBA. With my raiders, I add 5 carriers and 16 surface in HI, 2 carriers and 4 surface in the USM and single carriers to JI and CPO. A move I regret is not putting a single CA on patrol in the Marshalls. My bad. Joe elects to come into HI with just about everyone. He peels off Lex into the CS and ID and Hornet into the CPO.
Hawaii is very interesting so I will examine this further and break it down. IJN has 5 LBA to the USN's 6 LBA. The IJN has a total of 16 surface to the 12 that the USN brings. Of the surface ships, the IJN has 6 BB's to the USN's 4. In CA's, the IJN has 10 versus the USN's 8. The IJN has 3 fleet CV's and 2xCVL's vs the 3 fleet CV's for the USN. The IJN has 10 air units (31 shots) versus 9 air units (24 shots) for the USN. The wild card here is the US Marines.
In a pure day action, the IJN can go after the USN CV's/surface or USN CV's/marines in hopes of getting night in the future. In the former, it is giving up the area. In the latter, it is hoping for both the area but also has a chance at the USN surface.
In a d/n action, the IJN is a bit hand-cuffed in that the USN can judge from the IJN fire results what it wants to do. In the day portion, the IJN can target air-units/marines or surface. If it targets the former, and removes the marines and at least the CV's, the battle will then be down to LBA for both sides. If it just targets the surface, then the USN can target the IJN air-units to gain the upper-hand there.
In a night action, in which the IJN has a 4 wrap, the IJN will put enough CV's on the line to cover the USN CV's and stop the marines. If this is a night action, the USN will get there fleet torn up and lose the area. This is due to the likelihood of 5xLBA, 2xCVL still standing versus the USN's 6xLBA after rd 1with the IJN wanting more night actions to pummel the USN fleet. During any day actions, the IJN's 19 to 12 shot advantage should carry the day.
The main battle for the turn was in HI where it was a d/n action. Even though a night is following, I elect to go after air units and marines in order to win the area and convert Pearl. I figure if my boys do their job then Joe will need to follow suit and shoot at my air units. If he doesn't and elects to go after my surface, then I am likely to have some carriers survive since I start with a 4 wrap and have 5 carriers. He only has 9 air units and would have to be a perfect 9 for 9 to get all my carriers. I figure that I will have at least 2 carriers and 5 LBA to fight his remaining LBA with. However, my boys never got my memo! The combat results were beyond dismal for the IJN as I whiff against Saratoga, Yorktown and Enterprise. I cripple Hornet. I shoot down one LBA. I simply ding both marines for 1d and 2d w/o disabling either one of them. So yes, all my firepower in HI accounts for a single kill. Unbelievable. This gives Joe an easy choice of going after my fleet since it 1)protects his own fleet 2)ensures that one of his marines will get through to take Johnston Island and disable away the IJN LBA 3)saves Pearl. Joe's fire is very accurate in that he sinks 2xBB and heavily damages/cripples/disables four more BB's. In the following night action, my CA's sink 2xCA while Akagi sinks the MS! The USN night fire then proceeds to sink Kaga and Nachi. It also disables away a CA and Akagi(1d). Two other IJN CA's are damaged.
Still needing to sink a USN CV, I stay for rd 2. A day action! Again I line up Saratoga, Yorktown and Enterprise. Only to see them fail as Saratoga is crippled, whiff on Yorktown and a disable on Enterprise. In response, Zuiho and Shoho are sunk and Shokaku is crippled and disabled.
So, there it is, an IJN nightmare. A battle that looked to have all kinds of carnage totally fizzles. Three more IJN carriers go down w/o taking a USN counterpart with them.
CPO-ID sinks Chikuma
Mari's-To add insult to injury for this turn, Northampton disables Nagato to decontrol the area.
CS-Lex sinks Suzuya.
Well, this turn was a total bust. The IJN doesn't convert Pearl and gets whacked in return. The dice didn't do me any favors in HI or the Mari's. Perhaps, in hindsight, I should have shot at his surface during the initial d/n in Hawaii. However, my shooting was so bad, it would not have made a difference. POC stays at 18. This game is pretty close to being over after this mess. The USN will have 6 CV's to my 7 on turn 4. I'll be repairing one while he will be repairing 2. The difference will lie in that he will be able to protect his with LBA while I'll need to put mine at risk. I have been in tight spots before but this ranks right up there with the worst of them.
IJN Report: Man, I am in a big hole and will certainly need to take some chances. The POC count is average for this point in the game but I have holes everywhere. With Hawaii in USN hands the POC is not figuring to go up by much from here on out. I decide to feign toward Hawaii but head to the USM and CS. I scatter my LBA around the board, looking for POC. They willl be stretched very thin as I need to guard against a USN marine in Indo and protect my repairing ships in YNY. My NLF's head into the CPO (heading toward Midway) and CS. In the CS, it can backdoor his SPO LBA w/o me having to risk fighting it. I send my raiders to CPO, CS and the USM. In the CS, I am making Akagi(1d) face off with a lone LBA. My odds are about even if we are heads up but are nearly 2 to 1 if he shoots at my NLF first. In the USM, I am a favorite to flip Samoa. I really need some reversal of fortune with the dice to get back in this thing. Combat results-
JI-I get a night but the I-Boat whiffs. I disable a CV but get shot down. Shokaku is destroyed in the air-raids.
CPO-I sink my first USN CV (Wasp) and disable Lexington. He sinks Ryujo and Sasebo. A d/n for rd 2 sees Hosho finish off NM(2d). Hosho and Kita are sunk during the ensuing night action.
Mari's-I sink the Pens while Maya sinks and Haguro is disabled.
Indo-I dodge a bullet by getting a day action and disabling the 4th marine(1d). The 4th marine is hit for a second time, again for 1d and stands at 2d.
CS-My dice start to heat up as the 5th is shot down. The USN disables Yokosuka.
USM-Both USN LBA are flamed on the first pass. The USN sinks Hiyo and disables Hiryu.
SPO-I shoot down the RNZAF just to see it come right back and shoot me down. USN holds the area.
After seeing my stellar dice on rd 1, I had some reason to believe in a change of dice fortunes. However, dice owe no one anything. I was quickly reminded of this fact when Joe smoked me right back in key areas like JI, CPO, CS, USM and finally SPO. I had hopes that my NLF's might be able to slip through to Midway or Guad (facing just 2 shots), or that his CV's would come up empty against my Japan LBA, or that my SPO LBA would be able to fend off the USN LBA (again, 2 shots). My hopes of gaining at least 7-10 POC this turn are crushed. I end the turn flipping Samoa and gaining 4 POC. Given the board position, this is a far cry from what was needed. I will be down to 3 IJN carriers compared to the USN's 5 for turn 5. The USN owns Pearl and key bases at Midway/Guadalcanal. This game reminds me of a 2010 WBC game where I was down 8 to zero in carriers before I bagged one. That game, I won due to my opponents flag dropping. Here, with that same 8 to 1 deficit, and with no clock running, I think all is lost. Whenever the carrier attrition is so lopsided, one side or the other, it generally means the end. I am leaning toward resigning in this one but will look over the board one last time to make sure.
This is one ugly looking board. I have a big hole in the CPO that will allow the USN to hit my POC rich areas. My air power consists of just three carriers and 4 LBA. The USN has 5 carriers and 6 LBA. The only "free" area for me this turn will be Indo as no USN CV are based out of Australia. While I figure this game is near hopeless, I decide to play one more turn and see if the dice will save me. I also realize that dice alone can't bail me out of this one. I probably need some breaks from the USN. Even with both, I don't think I can win in the long run. The USN helps me out a little when it based both returning marines in Hawaii even though the Mari's was decontrolled last turn (An end run by his marines into the Philippines coupled with a raid into the Mari's could result in a nightmare situation for the IJN). That is wonderful news for me! The only other thing that I have working for me is the USN's lack of mobility in the CS and USM. Both have IJN flags. However, my task is daunting as I need to form some kind of perimeter and either gain, or deny, lots of POC. In order to do so, I will need to take some gambles and hope for the best.
Patrollers-I have got to flag the CPO or I have no shot at all of holding off the USN. I go in heavy as I have the fleet power to do so. I also throw a fast CA into the AI. If not responded to by the USN, will form a block for any USN guys based out of DH. I SHOULD have been able to patrol the CS but, disgusted over the events of the last turn, blew my basing by not having placed a couple of CA's in Samoa. Just stupid on my part.
LBA-I need both a block and POC so based on that I go with Indo(3 POC), JI(3 POC), USM(4 POC swing and block) and Marshalls(1 POC and block).
NLF's-Ah, the tricky part. One has to go to the SPO as it is a 3 POC swing, which is a given, if I don't. Now the tough call...USM or CPO with my last NLF. The safe move, and normally the one I would go with, is the CPO. However, I feel that I need far more given the current state of the game. I send it to the USM to increase my odds in the 4 POC swing area. It also would provide the movement block that I would like. My feeling is that there is no way that I can win unless I increase the POC on this turn (Before the T6 reins come in). While Midway is critical, I will hope that the flag is enough and that perhaps I can take Midway next turn when the flag, hopefully, will be IJN.
Raiders-I only have 3 carriers so I am pretty limited. Akagi will be tasked to knock down the lone CPO LBA. Hiryu swings around the SPO to go after the CS(2 POC). Soryu heads into the Mari's. I add a BB to JI to try and keep that area from falling into USN hands. I am given a surprise opportunity in the HI(3 POC) as it has only 2 surface ships with no LBA! That is a no-brainer and 2 BB's are quickly dispatched there! Even if they don't succeed, they should tie up a CV that could be used to attack me.
I-Boat-Two good choices here, Japan and the Marshalls. Joe did a good job in getting patrollers into each one and in the end I just can't allow the USN to possibly flag Japan even though the Marshalls block is huge as well.
So, there you have it. Outside of Indo, I have not been able to really secure any other areas. Yes, I have guys all over the place but the USN has the power to end this folly right now, IMO.
Then come the USN raiders...and I am certainly puzzeled. With a commanding game advantage, they have elected to go heads up with me this turn. This is the best that I could hope for! If I can start catching the breaks on these fairly even battles, things could turn around. The pref rolls are mixed, I get the SPO roll to allow my NLF to invade Guad. and also the USM roll. The USM roll will allow the 2 LBA to shoot at my NLF, but gives me a free pass at them. This is far better than the USN bonus BB hitting my NLF! The downside is that yet another IJN flattop, Soryu, is caught in a night action. Killing IJN CV's has just been way to easy for the USN in this game. In Japan, the I-Boat will need to wait until a first round day action is over and the IJN BB's will face the fire of Hornet in Hawaii.
Combat-My fire is luke-warm as I miss in Japan/NPO/CS and just damage a USM LBA for 3d. My bright side is flaming the CPO LBA, disabling the Yorktown from the Marshalls and Chicago from the Marianas. Joe's fire is similar in that he blows up Soryu (he also damaged/crippled/disabled IJN BB's) in the Marianas. He sinks the Kirishima in Hawaii and disables the Hiryu in the CS. However, I start to get the breaks I need when the USN misses my NLF in the USM, hits the 24th(3d) in JI and the 23rd(2d) in the Marshalls. Yes, the hits to my LBA push them near the edge but at least they are still alive! I quickly invade New Hebrides, giving me the USM, the movement block and the 4 POC swing area. The I-boat then chips in and disables the Enterprise giving me hope in JI.
Rd. 2-The Hornet sinks the Hiei, making that suicide run, truely suicide, for my BB's. Kinugasa is sunk by the pursuing Saratoga. However, I fair much better in the two critical areas still being contested. The 24th(3d) in JI cripples the Lexington (3d, dis) and is missed in return fire. Sweet! The Marshalls sees both sides whiff in round 2. In round 3, the Vicky is sunk and misses with her last volley. Wow!
Commentary-The turn ends with the IJN holding a block from the CPO down to the USM. They also gain 5 POC, up to 27. On the marine front, they invaded 2 bases while giving up one. Two other USN marines are repulsed in the Marshalls, which is huge. I am still in a lot of trouble but at least I feel I have a chance. The downside is that I didn't sink a single USN ship while Joe sank Soryu, 2xBB and a CA. The USN will need to repair Lexington but will still have 4 operational CV's, for T6, based out of Australia. The 6 POC bid that I gave Joe may well be my undoing!
Tactical commentary-As I feel this is a learning venue, I will share these thoughts. My approach to this game is that you look at many aspects, some of which are the comparative resources of each side, current board position, possible future board position and current game position. The goal being, if possible, to edge out your opponent at the end of T8. You try to do this in the safest way possible, if you can. I will state up front that this is often far easier for the IJN, mainly due to large POC leads that they often enjoy. Let's take a look at this turn/game for a minute. I really don't have the resources to accomplish both POC gain and a perimeter. Not even close. I tried my best to create an opportunity but it should not have worked from the IJN perspective. The focus now turns to the USN. Was there a flaw? The move, after all, was fairly similar to T4. He basically attacked a bunch of areas, just like this turn. I actually believe there was a flaw and it came in the form of "current board position". With a commanding lead, there is no need to take "fairly even" chances around the board. The Marshalls was the most glaring to me. You have 2 marines that will give you an interior base and allows a possibility of a further interior base on T6. You also have a real possibility of flagging the area and have a raiding lane into the IJN interior with 8 new carriers due to come in. If I am the USN, I would not bet on Yorktown and Vicky against a single LBA in such a vital area. Added to this is the fact that the USN player doesn't know where the IJN will send the I-Boat. To me, all the USN needed to do was give up JI and add those 2 CV's to the Marshalls and USM. Win those 2 battles and you are still likely to gain a POC or two for the turn and be set up nicely to finish off the game later. The bottom line here is that once you get a commanding lead, it is ok to hedge your bets against a streak on poor dice results by overloading your shots in critical areas. Otherwise, trying to "finish off" an opponent early, while taking chances, can sometimes snatch defeat from the hands of victory.
Gee, I never thought I would still be playing this game. I even have a chance! Overall, my goals are to keep the POC as high as possible while preventing interior bases from falling. The perimeter is very nice to have. I get Mari's for a single CA and JI should be fairly easy to hold as well. So that is 5 POC. Joe has made the rest very hard as he has positioned both of his marines in Australia along with 4 CV's. I experiment with putting my LBA in Indo, SPO, Marshalls and the USM. In the end, I figure that I need to hold both Indo and the SPO. Having 3 LBA in each, with 3 of them wounded will be a task. So, this will keep Lae safe, I hope. I really hate giving him the Marshalls and the USM but feel I can't decontrol them much less control them. I also would like to flag the CPO and take Midway. This will be quite difficult from last turn as I have 3 less surface ships and Joe has 4 more, courtesy of the T6 reins. I also will need to use some in the Mari's and JI. Thus I will need to be much more cagey with my CPO patrol on this turn versus last turn. I need to see what the USN puts out on patrol before deciding if this is what I really want to do. I figure that I have the option of going with a single LBA in the SPO along with surface if the numbers don't look good. In that option, I would put single, damaged LBA, in both the Marshalls and USM. When the USN commits all (including WA and SD on a patrolling run into JI) but 6 ships within reachable range of the CPO, my plan for the CPO is a go. If I can get Midway and a block, I would feel pretty good for next turn. I send in my only NLF and back it with a total of 14 ships, an 8 ship wrap. My version of chicken...
Combat-In Japan, a first round night gives the USN a chance but in the end I hold the area. I end up disabling SD and sinking WA. He sinks Chokai and hits Yamato(Now 8d) for more damage. Whew!
In the CPO, I get a night action. I sink a CV and 3xCVL while disabling a CV. I also disable a BB and cripple both the AL and NC. He sinks 2xBB and a CA while disabling 2xBB and a CA. With a 3 ship wrap, I stay. The USN gets a day for round 2 and sinks the damaged Musashi(7d) and the last 2 patrolling CA's. The USN wisely elects not to follow my 5xCA's in what would have been a naked pursuit with a CV and 2xCVL.
In the SPO-I get my night but the I-Boat misses. On round 2, my LBA catch fire and I smoke Hornet, Enterprise and Yorktown on the first pass. The USN's fire shoots down an LBA and adds another point of damage to the 23rd(Now 3d). Facing 2 LBA, Saratoga heads for Australia.
Comments-I finally cut the USN carrier force down with 7 of them visiting Davy Jones's locker! I've been waiting all game for that to start happening. I expected them to come at me in the SPO but was unsure about the CPO. My surface fleet sure took a hit as I lost 3xBB and 4xCA while sinking a single BB. The IJN surface force is quickly joining its carrier force in lack of power! However, I will gladly trade surface ships for carriers any day! The CPO battle is a little bittersweet as there is now a hole for the T7 USN to come pouring through into Japan. The POC ending at 26 is about as well as I could have expected it. On the marine front, the USN elects to just invade Guad., leaving me New Hebrides. This may lead to an opportunity on T7, we'll see. A big fight there may make patrolling JI very difficult on T8. As I see it right now, I will probably need to end T7 ahead by 20 POC to have any chance on T8.
My goals for this turn are to try and hold both JI/Indo while checkmating USN marines moving out of Australia. I need to hold the POC count to around 20 while trying to keep USN forces from basing closer in, if possible. Right now, the USN only has Midway as a primary base for patrolling JI on T8. My problem is that it is questionable if I have the resources to win in both JI and Indo! If I can do that, the POC will be at 19 going into T8.
Pats-I go heavy into Indo as I may need to go with just surface there and I will need to have some surviving patrollers if it comes down to a surface fight.
The USN counters with bringing in the British and bringing in several ships into the JI!
NLF's-Mine go to Indo and USN's come in as well. The USN would love to base out of the Phil's, if possible, so he can be forward based for T8.
LBA-I send 4 to HI and one to the USM. The USM LBA(3d) to going their to draw off carriers from either Indo or JI. Since the USN has committed forces to JI, I figure that he will need to bring at least 2xCV from Australia to counter my LBA(3d).
Raiders-I don't have a lot of ships to work with so I send the rest of my surface along with Hiryu and Akagi(1) to Indo. That should be enough to create a fairly even fight. I also hope to set up an even fight in JI with 4xLBA and my four T7 carriers.
The USN sends out his guys to attack in JI, Indo and the USM.
Pre-combat-Indo-With the peeling off of 2xCV from Australia, I am a favorite in Indo. Our carriers match up fairly well but I will have a 12 to 10 edge on surface, including a 4 to 3 edge in BB's. I'll ask for the night to wrap his carriers and my NLF's will just stay at sea to counter his marines. If day, I'll target his carriers as I need to make sure to win the area first. Safe guarding the Phil's will need to be secondary. Plus, if the USN targets the NLF's to get his marines through, then I will hope to punish his fleet in future rounds of combat.
Combat-Rd 1-All three areas are day. In Indo, I manage to only ding and disable CV16(1d) and disable Essex. In return fire, He sinks Akagi but misses the Hiryu. The F-Boat then misses the Hiryu. Now I have a huge edge in Indo! In Japan, I sink Bunker Hill and disable a CV/CVL. I also hit CV18 for 2d. That was ugly! However, Joe shoots poorly as well shooting down my damaged LBA(3d) as well as a healthy one. He also puts 2d on Taiho. Still a close fight there. The USM starts to get very interesting as I disable Saratoga and the USN CV's whiff! This fight is now pretty even but Joe's surface hold the tiebreaker. The payoff is too big so I will be staying there!
Combat rd 2-We agree on day in the USM but I manage to also get the day roll in both Indo and JI. In Indo, Hiryu sinks the Indiana! Over in Japan, I also do well, sinking CV18(2d), Monterey and Cabot. CV12 is crippled as well! In return fire, the USN lines up 6 shots apiece on my remaining 2 LBA while a CVL is diverted to target Taiho (same as last round). He misses Taiho for the second time, flames the healthy LBA and hits the 22nd (1d) for 2 more damage. The big news comes in the USM as I disable away Lex(2d) and am missed in return. My damaged LBA(3d) survived 12 shots and holds the USM for the IJN. Amazing!
Combat rd 3-Day again in Indo and JI! Wow! I disable away the SD in Indo. In Japan, I realize that my luck may not hold out any longer as far as the pref rolls so I target the remaining CVL (Langley) with 6 shots, the patroller ID with one and MA with 2 shots. I figure that if I can rid myself on the BB's that I should be able to at least decontrol the area in the future. I disable away Langley and ID while damaging the MA(1d). The Langley then misses the 22nd(3d) and I hold JI. The POC is now going to end this turn at IJN 23 with a bid of 6. At this point, Joe resigns.
Misc-A very fortunate turn for the IJN. Shooting down LBA can certainly plague every player in a VITP game. The USN just came up short on 6's. I was pretty shocked that the game would end on turn 7. I figured that I would hold Indo and possibly either own or decontrol Japan. On T8, the Indo block would have been a big barrier for the USN to overcome as well as the ability to patrol effectively into JI and the Mari's...
I feel for Joe. This is a victory that got away, IMO. Turn 5 was certainly the turning point. Then on turns 6 and 7, the dice really favored me. Both in the destruction of USN carriers followed by two IJN LBA's, with 3d each, holding the USM and Japan.
Best of luck in your remaining games!