The I-Boat Raid and CPO Withdrawal adjustments are in play.
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IJN comments: A little better than average Pearl raid for me as 7 BBs & 1 CA are sunk. Indo is a clean sweep taking out both Brit BBs & the 5th AF. Group W shows up in the HI allowing Enterprise to base in Australia. POC at standard 7.
USN comments: Not great, but at least there’s 1 CV
in Australia. What else can the USN do on T1 but pray to the dice gods?
IJN comments: I do a typical opening patrol while I see how the USN reacts. When they put all 3 of their LBA in the USM, I decide to go 1 area spreading carriers out with the hopes of getting CV attrition. Mutsu raids the Marshalls to hedge against a USN attempt to control the area. Darren responds with a shot at saving Singapore and concentrating on saving Midway. The IB goes to Indo as insurance.
The IB misses in Indo (N); I get some luck sinking both CVs in the CPO (D) and both CAs in the Marshalls (D); I whiff against the NPO patroller and get nothing else of value. Darren obliterates my 2 carriers in the CPO, damages Kako in the NPO, whiffs in the USM and disables Hosho with 1d while whiffing on the other CAs in the CS (N). A nice carrier exchange round for me with some helpful attrition.
One Brit CVL is crippled and one sunk in Indo r2. Darren whiffs and retreats. Atago is sunk by air strikes in the CPO (D of D/N) and we both whiff in the NPO. The damaged Kako whiffs in R3 and is promptly sunk. POC goes to 16. I come out ahead on the CV attrition battle, so the turn favors the IJN.
USN comments: Definitely a win for the IJN – I’d hoped to get away with losing only one CV in the CPO, and surface attrition wasn’t great either. Against a one-area attack like this where the IJN defends the perimeter strongly, making any incursions there risky, but doesn’t target Indo with more than 3 LBA, gambling in Indo makes abundant sense – only one US CV is at risk (and only marginally so, because only 1 LBA unit will likely target it in the first round), and the reward for getting lucky is that you probably win the game. It didn’t happen here, but if it works one out of every five or six games, you’re way ahead of the curve.
IJN comments: Darren bases 2 CVs, 2 BBs & 5 CAs at Midway making my interior defense awkward. I concentrate on taking Midway and flipping Pearl. I decide to go with 4 LBA in the HI to try to win that battle early without taking too much carrier attrition. My interior is open to raid, but I don’t want to take an LBA away from the HI.
Darren does as expected to deny me POC and take the good odds attack in the Marshalls. I decide to send the IB after a CV rather than the POC in the USM/CS.
The IB disables Enterprise in the Marshalls (N). I go for D in the JI & Mari’s to get away, but no luck as it is N. I whiff and Darren sinks 1 CA & disables the other. Takao sinks Quincy in the NPO before being damaged/disabled.
I get D/N in the HI. But my fire doesn’t sink a single LBA although 3 are damaged. Ugh! Darren puts some real hurt on me, sinking Zuikaku/Junyo, crippling Shokaku & disabling Kaga. Aack – a bad round for me!! During the N part of the action, I concentrate maximum fire on the marines and sink them both while nicking the CO with 1d. Darren puts some more hurt on me sinking Hiei and disabling 2 other ships.
On r2, I decide to stick around in the Marshalls and promptly get sunk after whiffing on a CV. Rats. I fare a little better in the HI downing 2 LBA & damaging 1. Darren disables Akagi & damages an LBA.
On r3 in the HI, my 16 shots are a total whiff. Darren sinks my last 2 carriers (Shoho & Ryujo) with return fire. This has gotten ugly … real ugly. That’s 71 shots that down only 2 LBA, but who’s counting. OK, I am!! This is like my game against Darren at WBC where 60+ shots over several rounds never downed a single LBA in our T3 HI fight. I think somehow he invented Teflon before it’s time! It is now down to 4 LBA on each side.
On r4, I get a N action to go after his BBs. I concentrate on NC & CO/-1 sinking them both. Darren sinks Kinugasa & cripples Haruna. I get N again and sink the last BB while Fuso takes 2d.
On r6, I down 2 LBA while Darren downs 1 & maxes another. I now have 3 LBA against 2 with a damaged one on each side. Darren elects to stick around. On r7, I down the damaged LBA and Darren whiffs electing to target the crippled Shokaku with 1 LBA.
At this point Darren runs. I finally manage to hold the HI & flip Pearl … something I couldn’t do at our WBC match. But the turn is still a huge win for the USN. POC goes down to 15. I have no perimeter and USN will have more operational air strikes than I (16 to 15) for T4. The POC and perimeter are no surprise, but the carrier attrition is. And that really hurts. Ugh!
USN comments: I wasn’t sure if I’d based too many ships at Midway at the start of the turn – did I leave CS/USM exposed? – but as events transpired I needn’t have worried. The dice were a big help, but even without the attrition the POC gain was always likely, and I wasn’t really risking anything in doing so. Certainly, trying to save Midway would have been a fool’s errand given the way Ed targeted it; I was pleased to get as much out of the turn as I did.
IJN comments: This is a tough turn for me. I have to save Indo or else Singapore/Saigon will flip. With 3 USN CVs & Hosho able to reach Indo, I will need 3 LBA there. That doesn’t leave a whole lot for the rest. I sprinkle lone patrollers in most areas and send 3 each to the SPO & USM. That will let me hit either area with raiders depending on what he does with his LBA.
Darren spreads his LBA. Now I can either hit the SPO or the USM. I favor the USM in this type situation. If he brings his fleet, I get everything except the SPO & maybe the Marshalls. And I have superior surface fire power and a chance to sink his CVs. My LBA could then probably hold my perimeter except maybe the SPO next turn. If he abandons the USM, I easily protect the HI on T5 & lock in his T5 marine/Vicky. And if he doesn’t raid some ships in SPO/CS, he will not be able to reach the HI/JI/CPO on T5. I can get that POC cheap. I don’t plan to invade New Heb since I don’t think I have enough air power to get a KO on T5.
If I go for the SPO, I’m vulnerable in the same areas as if I hit the USM. But on T5, the HI is much more vulnerable. He will have a marine(s) that can go after Johnston Isl. If I send the fleet to the HI on T5 to protect Johnston Isl, then the Philippines (& maybe Lae) will be vulnerable. So it is off to the USM for the IJN!! My marines go to the USM to protect them and as a KO threat. I could send them to the SPO to try to get Guad. But that is likely to draw some of the USN fleet which I do not want in that area. Also I will need them on T5 in Indo to protect Lae. I send my 2 crippled carriers & BB to safe areas as YNY could be raided.
Darren responds by raiding to take away my POC. He also sends his 3 big BBs to the USM hoping for N to remove my patrollers – a good move I think. But he has no ships able to base in Guad, so next turn the JI/HI/CPO will be safe for me. So my plan is working. Now I just have to control the USM or the game is over.
I win all the D/N rolls which is very nice. I can only hit Hermes for 1d however, disable a JI CA, sink a Mari’s CA, whiff against the CPO CA, run in the SPO/Marshalls and sink IN/WA while disabling SD with 4d during D in the USM. (I target his USM BBs to protect my patrollers.) Darren has a poor round whiffing in Indo, disabling Nagato in the JI, disabling Yamato with 3d in the Mari’s and whiffing in the CPO/USM. In the HI, the IB disables the patroller. So that will save 3 POC for sure.
Darren runs in the USM. In a questionable decision, I decide to stay in the HI to try to sink a CV. The next round is all Darren as I don’t score hit in the CPO/HI while being sunk in both areas. Rats! I do manage to pick up 1 POC to go to 16. The turn went mostly as I had hoped, but I am still in a lot of trouble.
USN comments: Ed’s move into USM was very crafty, but sending my BBs forced him to win the D/N roll – a total of three suicide BBs (one or more of which may survive with poor Japanese attack rolls) in this scenario is a far lower cost than, say, a single suicide CV on T2, and with far better rewards on offer. However, in retrospect I certainly should have based someone in Guadalcanal instead of trying to guarantee the best odds possible in YNY or the Marianas. This is the sort of hedging move that one can sometimes make when you feel you’re ahead and want to make sure cold dice don’t give your opponent a route back into the game. As it happens, I still did OK on POC, but T5 planning was now much easier for Ed than it might have been – plus, I failed in my chance to effectively win the game outright with good luck in the USM.
IJN comments: With a USN flag in the SPO, I don’t plan to fight there. Guad would be nice, but I don’t like my chances of getting it even with 3 marines. Plus if my marines are there, then the Philippines are vulnerable to invasion because the Mari’s were uncontrolled last turn.
So the fleet will try to defend Indo letting my marines protect Lae/Philippines. My 5 LBA will attempt to establish a perimeter in the Mari’s/Marshalls. The 4 USN CVs (Wasp will have to SR) will be favored against 2 LBA. But I am fearful of sending a carrier to help as I don’t have the flag and Darren might hit Indo with air superiority & about even surface. Maybe some of Darren’s Teflon will rub off on my LBA! Now I wish I had the damaged LBA I lost sticking around in the HI last turn.
The Allies do about as expected. So the only fight is in the Marshalls. Unfortunately Wasp makes her SR & it is D. Sigh. I have a nice first round however sinking Wasp & disabling Enterprise. Now if Darren would just have the decency to whiff!! But he doesn’t downing an LBA. Unfortunately the IB whiffs. I again decide to stick around. We sink Saratoga but Darren is inconsiderate again sinking my last LBA. So much for that.
At least I pick up some POC taking it to 22. But I am still in a big hole.
USN comments: One of the dullest T5s in a game of VITP I can remember. I did actually consider not going into the Marshalls – another hedging move along the lines of my thinking on T4, guaranteeing that I wouldn’t lose CVs for no benefit – but that would have been a bit daft. Plus, you have to have *some* combat every turn, right?
IJN comments: I get the JI & NPO for 1 ship each. But I need 2 other big POC areas. That will be difficult against Darren’s shiny new CVs and him getting to move last. The HI is the largest POC swing area on the board except the JI and is important to protect my NE corner POC. So that will be one area I go after. After that it is either Indo or the Mari’s. Indo is a swing of 4 POC vs Mari’s swing of 3. But there are 2 problems with going for Indo. The Brit surface (+ Hermes/-1) come into play and if the USN gets the Mari’s they may flip Truk next turn. That would be very bad for me positionally on T8.
So I elect to try for the Mari’s. I put out a heavy patrol there & await Darren’s patrollers. Darren sends hefty patrols to the Marshalls & HI. OK, that assures me of a big surface ship wrap in the Mari’s and I have the flag. I think that will intimidate him & give me that area. My LBA will attempt to hold the HI. My marines go to the Mari’s to protect the Philippines. With a big surface wrap in the Mari’s I can afford to send some carriers to back up the HI LBA. I want to keep a few carriers for the Mari’s in case he does raid there. I finally decide to send Kaga, Akagi & Hiyo to the HI. A raiding CA goes to the NPO to be sure of having 2 patrollers for the NPO next turn & protect against the T7 F Boat. Darren does hit the HI, so the IB joins the fun there.
I get D in the HI. Whew!! I do fairly well in the first round sinking Enterprise/Essex/CV16 and disabling Lex/B Wood. But Darren has a good round sinking Kaga, Hiyo and 2 LBA (ouch!) while disabling Akagi. That makes it tough for me leaving my 2 LBA to face CV10 & 4 027s (+2). I really need the IB to come through – and she does by disabling CV10. So it is now my 2 LBA vs 4 027s (+2). In the CPO Mogami runs away during D & bases in Midway.
In the HI r2, I ding Princeton for 1d (oh for just 1 more point of damage!) and disable Cowpens. Darren whiffs. Things are looking up as I have 2 healthy LBA vs three 2-bangers. On r3, I disable Princeton/-1 and sink Independence. Way to go guys!! I’m feeling much better – that is until Darren shoots. He downs 1 LBA and puts 3d on the other. Aargh!!!! I whiff on the next round and Darren downs my last LBA. Disaster!!! That is a 5 POC swing!!
Darren takes a base in the Marshalls and parks the 2nd marine there. POC is now 17 and the bid is 4.5. This looks really really hard. The bulk of my fleet base in Truk to have the most flexibility.
USN comments: A huge result in HI – so much so that I offered Ed the chance to resign, half-expecting him to say yes. In truth, my turn once again played itself, at least through Combat; the Marianas was never a realistic option, not given that my ships would have to base back in Australia or Samoa afterward. The only real decision I had to make was what to do with my Marines; I went conservative, looking to pick Lae and a base in the Marshalls while positioning other Marines for forward advancement on T7. After the turn was done, my main concern was making sure I didn’t screw up what obviously looked to be a winning position. Basing was tricky; Ed holding all of the advantages of short interior lines of communication, but with the Marshalls cutting off the direct route from Truk to HI, I thought it best to leave a merely adequate patrolling force for T7 in HI at Samoa and pose a maximum threat to JI.
IJN comments: I count out the POC for the 2 turns left . If I hold the JI on T7 & T8 (a reasonable chance), count the POC he can’t get in the NE corner and give him the rest, I am 7 POC short of a .5 POC win. So I need more – a lot more. One obvious place to look is the HI. Darren has the flag but doesn’t have a base there. If I can decontrol it on T7, that will save 3 POC for the HI. Plus if I can keep his Marshalls based marine from taking Midway or Johnston Isl, he won’t be able to patrol the NPO next turn – another POC saved. If I win the JI on T8, I still need to get 3 more POC somewhere. I don’t think I can deny him in that many areas so I need to patrol some more this turn. The CPO & NPO are my best candidates. So that is what I decide to go with. I need several things to go right for me, but at least it is a plan that has some possibility of success.
Part of the plan is to create several other threats that spreads out his fleet with the hope I can pick up something there as well. So I patrol the CPO & NPO and raid the rest. Darren credits me with some mental POC at this point as he wasn’t expecting this and wants to think about his response. Unfortunately the conversion rate for mental POC to real POC is not good enough to do me any real good.
Darren responds with his patrollers including 2 in the JI from Lae. My only 2 LBA go to the JI. I send 2 marines to the Marshalls to threaten his base and take away a POC since there is no surface patroller. Yokosuka goes to the Mari’s to try to hold the Philippines. Darren sends a marine to Indo to go after the Philippines and keeps his marine in Maloelop to help protect that base. That means I need both marines to get through in the Marshalls but also means he will not have Midway or any HI bases if I can decontrol that area.
Two BBs go to the Mari’s to try to take out his patrollers. Most of my BBs make their SRs to the HI which is a big plus. I spread out my carriers in what I hope will offer me my best chance to hold the JI and decontrol the HI.
Darren responds by giving me the CPO/NPO and challenging the rest. I do get some luck when Princeton/-1 fails her SR to the JI.
Now for the important D/N rolls. I get D in the JI but it is also D in the HI. In the Mari’s it is D and N in the Marshalls after I ask for the opposite of what I really intended. Sigh. Let’s see how the battles go.
In the JI, I sink CV10, disable Lex and cripple B Woods. Nice but is it good enough? Darren knocks down 1 LBA but whiffs on the other. The F Boat whiffs. Now I will need my 1 LBA to hold out vs the remaining 2-banger. The next round sees Cowpens disabled. Cowpens whiffs, so I do hold the JI. Whew!
In the Mari’s, Intrepid whiffs on my marine allowing it to land in the Philippines. So that is a lucky break for me. I go for N on r2, but it is D and Nagato is disabled with 4d. Yamato/-3 then runs and is sunk in pursuit for no cost to the USN. Intrepid must stay behind to raid the Philippines which she does but can only hit Yokosuka for 1d. So I save the Philippines. That means no LBA there next turn maybe more importantly, the Mari’s ships can’t base there.
In the Marshalls, Kure is sunk by SD. Sasebo is sunk by SD in pursuit. Darren pointed out I should have landed Sasebo in Kwaj after the first round so she could rebase when it flipped, but I overlooked that option.
In the HI, the first round is D. Rats! I have a good round though, sinking CV12 & Langley II while disabling Cabot & CV18 with 2d. Both patrolling CVLs are gone. Will it be good enough? Darren’s return fire sinks all six of my carriers!!!! UGH!!! I expected to have a disable and likely an operational survivor. Bad news for me.
But the dice can be perverse. I get lucky and get a pure N on the 2nd round against the flag and concentrate all fire on his patrollers. I sink the 4 CAS and disable IA and NJ with 5d!!! The HI is decontrolled!!! I take some real damage on his return fire and subsequent pursuit, but it is well worth the price.
I got lucky gaining my objectives in the JI, HI, CPO, NPO & saving the Philippines. I also sink several carriers increasing the probability of my LBA withstanding his T8 assault. So the POC goes to 13 – 8.5 after the bid. Darren can’t reach the NPO/AI with patrollers next turn. So I need to keep 7 more POC out of his hands. That would leave him with 8 POC gain and giving me a .5 POC win. There are several possibilities for me but it will still be a fight. But at least I am back in the game with a reasonable chance for the win. Zowies!
I base Hosho, Ryuho, Maya, Fuso/-2 and Haruna/-3 in Pearl, the 3 CPO CAs in Midway, the 3 NPO CAs in D Harbor and the rest in the JI. I anticipate trying to win the NPO next turn and I will need some fleet protection. The two dinky carriers may be all I can afford there.
Darren now has Singapore/Saigon but still has basing problems primarily because he doesn’t have a base in the HI (or the Mari’s). Anything in Australia can’t hit the NPO or CPO. Anything in Samoa can’t reach the JI and of course Singapore/Saigon based ships can’t reach the HI. I carefully count his ships basing in Samoa & the Marshalls as they are the only ones that can reach the NPO. He bases the SD in Kwaj as expected. Darren bases 4 USN CAs, TN & NJ/-5 in Samoa along with De Ryuter. He has a large force in Saigon able to heavily patrol the JI/Mari’s next turn & some ships in Australia. He also exchanges out my Philippines based marine.
USN comments: Utterly, utterly frustrating. I guess you could say I underpatrolled HI, and perhaps should have considered alternative options with my Marines (a surface patroller in the Marshalls wouldn’t have hurt, either), but credit to Ed for finding a plan that gave the dice a chance to get him back into the game. Even losing in JI and HI wouldn’t have been quite so disastrous had I managed to take the Philippines!
IJN comments: To recap … Darren can’t patrol the NPO/AI so the max POC he could get is 15. I need a swing of 7 more limiting him to a gain of 8 to give me a .5 POC win.
Darren isn’t likely to make my job easy by lightly patrolling the Mari’s, HI or JI. So I patrol the NPO for one of the 7 POC take-aways that I need. Darren patrols the JI/Mari’s/HI heavily enough to not make them easy targets. That settles it for me and my 5 LBA patrol the JI hoping to give me a swing of 6 POC by controlling it. I back up the NPO with raiders, send my YNY-based BBs to threaten his Mari’s surface patrollers and add Amagi & Unryu to support the JI defense.
Darren sends his raiders as expected. CV18/-2 & Princeton/-1 need SRs to get to the JI. They both make it. Sigh. I now rate that fight as roughly even. But the SD, TN and NJ/-5 all fail their SRs to the NPO, so that helps.
Fortunately I get my D in the JI. Three 4-bangers and two 2-bangers are taken out of action. Darren fires everything at my LBA but has a poor round and can only sink one and damage one. The F Boat hits Amagi but for only 1d leaving it operational. That was a good round for me leaving 4 LBA & 2 carriers to face his 5 carriers. In the Mari’s, I remove 3 CAs but Darren has a good round taking out all but 2 of my BBs. Only a remote chance to decontrol that area now. In the NPO, it is D. My 2 midget carriers cripple Ticonderoga. Whew!! Darren sinks a patroller in return. A good round for me there as well.
The JI is D again. I only take out B Hill & Cowpens making me nervous. But Darren can only damage another LBA. That leaves 4 LBA & 2 carriers vs 3 carriers. Very good odds for me. Darren saves the Mari’s in our 2nd round of fire. So I need the NPO now. I get D in the NPO but whiff.
I finish the last 3 USN carriers off in the JI giving me that area. It is now up to the NPO to decide the game. It takes 9 rounds in the NPO where I won all the D/N rolls! I win that area too and with it the game by .5 POC!
USN comments: I was more pessimistic than Ed regarding the JI battle even after my speed rolls succeeded; I thought I might possibly win in the Marianas or the NPO but not both (maybe my odds would have been better had I not patrolled a CVL in HI and thereby could have sent it to NPO?), so my first round of fire in the JI pretty much cinched the game. How to take a win and turn it into a loss in two easy turns…ay carumba.
IJN final comments: This game had luck swings both ways. I had a good T2, but T3 was a big hurt for me. T4 – T6 had some luck both ways but the hole was pretty deep at the end of T6. T7 was a BIG turnaround getting me back in the game. Darren probably tried to do a little too much on T7. I think he could have concentrated more of his fleet on the eastern side of the board while maintaining a minimum threat to the JI. He could afford to concede the JI & even the Mari’s if need be while taking the HI & denying me the NPO/CPO. But I also needed some good luck to win with the moves that Darren did make.
Thanks Darren for the thrilling roller coaster ride!!! Good luck in your other games.
USN final comments: Did I try to do too much on T7? Yeah, probably; I guess I hadn’t played the USN in a complicated late-game situation like this for a while, and it showed. Alas, my position at the end of T6 wasn’t quite as foolproof as I thought, and the dice and Ed together conspired to make me look like a fool. :) But it was a good game, and a fairly quick one, and I wish Ed all the best as well as the tournament continues – if nothing else, the dice owed him one after our game at the WBC!