The Normal Turn One variant is in play.
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Allied Report: Both sides deploy conservatively.
The Pearl raid sinks the MD, WV, CA, OK, PA, AZ and SF as the IJN concentrate on
the ships leaving the 7th AF alone. The USN extracts some penalty by sinking
the Hiryu before deciding not to engage. The 5th AF and PoW are sunk in
Indonesia without any counter-damage. All three Location Uncertain carriers go
to Pearl. POC at the “standard” 3 for the IJN.
Allied Report: Jim does the typical aggressive
IJN patrolling. I decide to go with only 1 LBA in the USM. I anticipate a strong
HI raiding force. With the Hiryu sunk on T1, a BB already committed to
patrolling the Marshalls and the threat of a suicide CV/block, Jim’s USM raiding
force may not be that strong. I may be able to defend it with the surface fleet
and only 1 CV raiding. But Jim sends a bigger USM raiding force than I expected.
Hmm. I don’t like a fight there now. And the odds of a Marshalls block AND
successful suicide mission vs Yokosuka don’t look that promising. The HI force
is weaker than I expected and fighting there seems to be the best alternative. I
do have the flag, and a Night action on the first round should allow me to
remove some carriers. I will suffer surface attrition, but my carriers and the
flag may let me even things up a bit. Plus the T3 reinforcements will be free to
move. On ave, I will lose 2 CVs if it is an opening Day round which would be
acceptable. Of course the possibility of losing several/all CVs is also there,
but there aren’t any risk free options. So to the HI, it is with all my raiders.
During Day actions, the Revenge takes 2 damage in Indonesia, the 7th AF whiffs
against Sasebo in the Marianas, the 10th AF whiffs in the CS and the 11th AF is
sunk for no cost in the USM. Australia, De Ruyter and Kako are sunk during N
action and pursuit in the Marshalls.
The first round is D in the HI. Rats! Jim sinks Hornet/Enterprise, disables
Lexington and maxes Yorktown. Uh oh! A nice round of fire for Jim, as all 4 CVs
are out of action and the I Boat still lurks. This could be really bad if I
leave a carrier and the IB takes out my last CV. But the USN comes through also
by disabling Hosho and sinking Kaga, Soryu, Zuiho and Yokosuka. Whew! The IB
hits, but for 2 damage leaving the Saratoga still operational. Whew again!! Jim
decides to run. During pursuit, Hyuga and Ise are sunk for no cost to the USN.
The HI is saved at a moderate cost (2 CVs sunk and 1 maxed). But Jim picks up a
lot of bases and POC. POC goes to 13.
Allied Report: I only have 5 LBA this turn,
which is going to make my life tougher. Jim again does an aggressive patrol,
putting a lot of pressure on me. I hesitate to SR Hermes to Indo as a patroller,
because I think Jim will have 3 LBA there which I can’t hope to defeat with the
Brits. But I need to pressure Jim also, so she sails but fails her SR. I had
based a BB in Australia to prevent a cheap IJN CA patrol of the SPO and CS. Jim
surprises me by only putting 2 LBA in Indonesia. Now I am glad I sent Hermes in.
But I have to decide on my LBA between a 122 LBA deployment to CS/USM/Hi and a
131 to those areas. I finally decide on the 131 to force more carriers to the
USM if he wants it. That should weaken some other areas. The risk is a big HI
raid by the IJN. Yorktown is repairing at Pearl and he could lock in Wasp next
turn if he controls the HI. But I will have a big surface lap that might keep
him out. My marines head for the CPO to put pressure on him there as prospects
look better there than the Marshalls. At the least it should divert some
carriers. Going to the NPO to save Dutch Harbor is too passive and would give
him more freedom.
Jim does raid the HI while sprinkling some other carriers around to protect his
perimeter. I finally decide that I can’t give him the HI. The 5 POC swing would
really be bad for me. I should be able to at least decontrol the area which will
assure I will have 2 CVs next turn that can move as well as any survivors from
this fight. My CPO marines are probably goners, although 1 might get disabled
before being sunk. The Brit CVLs will have the possibility of winning Indonesia,
so they commit to the fight. Jim sends the IB to the HI rather than backing up
Indo which will help my Indo chances.
The first round is Day everywhere but the HI. Whew! At least I will have a
chance to do some damage to his carriers before their planes can find any
targets.
Minneapolis is sunk in the AI and Kure takes Dutch Harbor. In the CPO, the 1st
Marine takes 4d without being disabled, but the 2nd Marine is disabled with no
damage. All right, that helps! In Indonesia, one CVL is sunk and one disabled,
but the Brits down an LBA in retaliation. We sink two CAs in the USM & whiff in
the CS. The Canberra does out duel Atago in the NPO, sinking her and holding the
area.
But the good news ends in the HI and the NPO where we agree to N. Jim sinks the
NC and 4 CAs, disables 2 CAs, cripples CO and damages 2 other ships. My 40 shot
return fire only sinks the Zuikaku, disables Shokaku/Nagato and damages 2 other
ships. Yuck! Not only does my 5 ship wrap go to a 1 ship IJN wrap but he still
has a carrier (Junyo/-1) around. To compound my problems, the IB sinks
Saratoga/-2. If Jim can get a N action, he is likely to remove my remaining
carrier and start hammering my surface fleet. This could be bad, real bad.
But now the luck turns my way as it is D again in the HI and Junyo can only
damage Lexington before being sunk. Jim now decides to run and we sink the
Kirishima in pursuit. Not only that but, Jim’s 8 bonus shots disables the 1st
Marine/-4! So both marines escape to make Jim’s life more difficult. On R2 in
Indonesia, Formidable takes 2 damage and is out of the fight. It’s 4 more rounds
before Hermes is finally disabled, but not before she sinks the last LBA giving
the area to the Allies!!
It is a great turn for the Allies as I get almost everything I could have wished
for. The POC goes down to 12 (only .5 POC bid however), there is a raiding lane
through Indo, the 2 marines threaten bases, we preserve control of all 3 Allied
Home Areas, we have 3 operational USN carriers (plus Hermes) and we will have
all 8 LBA while the IJN has only 4 next turn. That will make it hard for the IJN
to defend the perimeter and build up POC.
Allied Report: I have some real advantages at
this stage of the game. I would like to keep a hole in Jim’s perimeter although
that is more important next turn. That means preserving my carriers as best I
can and still controlling the POC gains he might make.
Jim’s patrols and LBA are pretty much what I would have done in his shoes,
although I probably would have had a few less SPO patrollers to maintain more
flexibility. The Brits go full force into Indo to fight any surface and/or
carrier raiders he might send. LBA do the rest of my patrolling on the US sphere
of influence except for the NPO. Most of my LBA will fight to defend Guad. With
no IJN patrollers in my Home waters, I’m willing to risk a raid there. If he
does, it will make his perimeter that much weaker. Jim’s marines go after Guad,
while mine go to Indo and CPO to threaten key bases. I want to mount enough
threats that he can’t effectively cover them all.
Jim’s raiders are pretty much as expected although I thought he might have a CVL
in the Marshalls instead of Indo. I decide not to send the US CVs into a fight
against his bonus shooters. I want enough air power to knock open or keep open a
hole next turn. Night action in either CPO or Indo will let me claim a key base
there. A D action in SPO will give me a shot at holding Guad. The odds favor me
getting at least one of the three. When Lex/-1 makes her SR to the Marshalls, I
also have good odds of prevailing there. Now I wish I had patrolled the
Marshalls.
Sometimes when it rains, it pours! The turn is a disaster for Jim, as the dice
all go my way. I still own the sun as I get every D/N roll including N against
the flag in the CPO. To top it all off, my shooters do well almost everywhere
too. In Indo, we sink Ryujo and take the Philippines. In the CPO, we sink Hiyo
and take Midway. Ashigara is sunk in the NPO as the Astoria is disabled.
Yorktown is disabled in the Marshalls, but the 23rd is gunned down in
retaliation. Only in the SPO do we fall short, as we disable Yokosuka but can
only damage Sasebo.
Plus Indonesia is N the second round too, so we take no fire before running. I
overlook Hosho in the Mari’s, when I base TN in the Philippines. But Hosho’s
raiding shots splash in the ocean adding a little insult to Jim’s injuries. The
IB does come through for him sinking Lexington.
Jim picks up 1 POC to go to 13. Sometimes luck just doesn’t want to be evened
out. This game so far is that way. Jim has a very tough row to hoe at this
point.
Allied Report: Jim Patrols the Mari’s and CP. He
also gives me his LBA and marines at the same time. That pretty well tells me
what his plans are although most of it would be obvious with just his
patrollers.
The Marshalls and CP are my prime targets as a hole there will let my T6 CVs
raid his interior from Pearl. Dutch Harbor therefore isn’t that high on my
priority list. I plan to give him the NP as I don’t want to divert my carriers
or marine there. I patrol the Marshalls and use LBA for my other Home areas.
Most of the LBA go to defend advanced bases that I already have. Since I don’t
have a US CV that can reach Indo, I decide to concede that to him and repair
Hermes. The odds of Hermes taking out Jim’s Indo LBA are too low. I’ll save
Hermes for a more opportune time on T6 or T7.
Jim’s raiders back up his CP/Mari’s patrollers as expected. I have 5 BBs based
at Midway and could fight in the Mari’s. But he has the flag and it would
concede the perimeter to him. If I weren’t successful in holding the
Philippines, he would get the Mari’s and JI for a CA each. I don’t like that or
all his BBs there. So I decide to go for both the CP & Marshalls. The carriers
go after the Marshalls. I have excellent odds of controlling it, knocking down
his LBA or at least getting a base there. In the CP, I have a 3 surface ship
lap. A N action will let me put 5 bonus shots on his marine as well as hit his
CVs with BBs. I think that will force him to ask for D, which will give me good
odds of driving off the SNLF and holding Midway. If the LBA are unsuccessful,
then my fleet can withdraw and I doubt Jim will risk chasing me especially
without the flag. I decide to leave TN based in the Philippines rather than risk
LBA fire in Indo.
I get my D in the Marshalls, but Jim gets his N in the Marianas and D in CP. Jim
sinks Yorktown and I whiff on his LBA. So much for protecting my CVs! Kure takes
the Philippines driving off my LBA. In the CP, Jim targets my bonus BBs damaging
both and disabling one. My LBA manage only 1 hit but it is enough as we sink
Yokosuka and save Midway. Jim decides the odds are too long and runs. I can’t
chase with no carriers and some BBs that aren’t fast enough. In the Marshalls,
the IB targets and disables the 3rd Marine, so I get no base there. Jim disables
the Wasp on the 2nd round, but the 24th AirFlot goes down in flames with return
fire. So I do control the Marshalls and the CP.
Jim gains 2 to go to 15 POC. It is still a very tough position for the IJN. But
it ain’t over until it is over, so we shall see what happens.
Allied Report: Jim sends a big patrol to Indo and leaves most of his fleet on raid. I patrol the forward areas and plan LBA for my back areas. Jim makes an excellent move by spreading his LBA around the areas where I don’t have bases. At this point I realize that I’ve made a poor move. I don’t have enough fleet to safely send the 3 marines I based in Australia into either Indo or SP. Most of my slow BBs based at Midway at the end of last turn and probably couldn’t make SRs to the SP. Those marines are precious. If I lose them now, I lose all prospects of getting advance bases in time to help me. So I load up the CS with LBA to help protect their likely destination.
Jim’s one marine goes after Midway. My marines go to CS to at least get Guad and NP to try for Dutch Harbor.
Jim sends raiders after my patrollers and defends the SP/Indo. Now I realize I made another mistake. I don’t have a surface patroller in the CP which makes Midway vulnerable to a marine sneaking through. And I should have had a heavier patrol in the Marshalls. Sigh. I can’t go after everything and finally decide to defend my positions in the CP/Marshalls and attack the Marianas to have a hole to Indo (from a hoped for base at Midway and/or the Marshalls) and cut into his POC. The carrier distribution is an attempt to balance the probabilities. I calculate a 90% chance to save Midway and estimate a roughly 50/50 chance to keep control of the Marshalls. That gives me about a 95% chance of keeping Midway and/or flipping the Marshalls bases. That leaves me enough to give me good odds of at least decontrolling the Marianas. I’d love a shot at controlling the JI, but it is not likely and the hole into Indo is probably equally valuable.
Jim rolls the D/N and his first attacks, but forgot to put out the IB. I luckily get N in the NP that will give me Dutch Harbor. But Jim does well in the rest as it is D/N in Marshalls/Mari’s and D in SP, JI and CP. Hmm, some bad rolls here could get me in trouble. And that’s what I get. Ugh. After the dust settles, Jim takes out my Marshalls/Mari’s patrollers, sneaks through to get Midway and decontrols the AI. In the process, I lose 5 CAs (ouch) but thankfully no carriers. We sink 3 CAs but only 1 LBA (the Marshalls wounded LBA runs away before I can down it). As it turns out, more patrollers in the Marshalls probably wouldn’t have helped since I was not able to down the LBA anyway with 24 shots. Still it was a poor move on my part. We do manage to control the NP.
My poor play and the dice have managed to put Jim right back in this ball game. POC goes down 1 to 14.
Allied Report: With only Guad and D Harbor for advanced bases, I have a very awkward fleet positioning problem. I not only have to fight this turn, but also be positioned for T8. Jim does about what I expect with his patrollers and LBA including a threat to control the IO. Some Brits patrol the BoB. The CAs are held back on raid. My patrollers/LBA move to control what I can reach.
Jim had based one returning marine at YNY and one at Truk. So I need only one based at Guad to assure keeping that base and I based one in Australia. I thought Jim would send both marines to Indo to protect Lae, but instead he sends one to threaten Dutch Harbor. So I keep one in Guad and move the other one to SP hoping to get Lae.
Jim mostly moves to protect the JI. I don’t have enough to protect D Harbor, go after Lae, fight in the Marshalls/Mari’s/CPO and go after the JI. So I go after what I think I have good odds of being successful at. My odds in any one area are in the 90% range (except getting Lae). My problem is that I have to be successful in 6 areas and it is enough risk to make me sweat! I SR most of my Pearl based BBs to AI. Three fail and go to D Harbor.
It comes up D in SP and Mari’s but I get my N wish in the AI. The other areas are agreed upon as we are both there to fight. Jim doesn’t shoot well the first round as he disables a Marshalls CV and only damages my SP marine. He does sink a Brit CA in the IO. I don’t do much better but we do down the wounded LBA in the Marshalls. One hurdle down. All my SP air strikes go after Kure which is enough to sink the marine guaranteeing me Lae. Two hurdles down. My massive surface fire power easily sinks Yokosuka and Kumano in the AI. Three hurdles down. We damage but do not sink his CP and Mari’s LBA. Rats. The Brits whiff against Mogami. Hmm, I don’t like that.
It is D again in Marianas. I decide to pursue the fleeing Taiho in the SP. Jim does very well this round. He sinks the pursuing B Wood while my 4 bonus shots whiff. Aack! I decide to let Taiho run away. He also sinks CV18 in the Mari’s while I down his wounded LBA. We both whiff in the CP. Mogami sinks another Brit CA while I whiff again in the IO. Double aack!! This is making me very nervous.
On round 3, Jim sinks CV12 while I down his the LBA in the CP. Jim gets his N in the Mari’s wounding/disabling NJ. Return fire wounds/disables Yamato. In the IO, Mogami finally misses and is hit in return fire. But it is only 1d!! Triple aack!! Finally on round 4, Mogami is disabled for not cost. Whew!!
The F Boat whiffs. It is a good (but favored) result for me as we do get all our objectives. I pick up 6 POC to take it down to 8. (.5 POC bid) This is still a fight. So it is on to T8.
Allied Report: I realize during the middle of my move, that I have been miscounting the POC that Jim needs to deny me to win. I am in better shape than I thought. Jim needs to deny me 10 POC for a win given the .5 bid.
Jim patrols as much of the board as he can reach to threaten many areas and stretch my forces out. The bulk of my fleet and carriers are based at Pearl or D Harbor. Two CAs, two BBs & a CVL are all I have at Lae to help out in the west. So LBA will need to defend a lot of the western part of the board. I need the Brits to help out in Indonesia. Given his surface patrols, I can afford to use lone surface patrollers in areas he can’t reach.
Jim decides his best chance for a win is to control both Indo and the JI. I cover the Marianas, Marshalls & CP with enough raiders to have good odds of denying him POC there. The rest go to the main battle areas.
I should be favored to win the game, but there are definite risks. If his marine gets through (42 % chance for pure N leaving only the F Boat to stop Sasebo) he might win Indo. If I also have bad luck shooting at his LBA (and we’ve all had that happen), he could win that area too.
But luck is not with Jim. I get D/N in Indo where air strikes sink Sasebo. In the JI, it is D and Jim shoots well. But I shoot well too. I concentrate fire on his LBA & heavy carriers ignoring the 1 shot guys downing all 3 LBA. I also prevail in the Marianas & CP but only damage Takao in the Marshalls during D. During Indo N action we each send some ships away. The FB then sinks Hosho leaving one IJN carrier to fight my air. She goes to the bottom from my next D round air strikes ending Jim’s last hope. The R2 D JI fight leaves me in a good position to probably win that area too.
Jim was in a tough spot after T4. I botched the defense of Midway on T6 which made my life more difficult. It was exciting to the end, but Jim had too big of a hill to climb. As always, a fun tough game versus Jim.
IJN Endgame Report: I just lost my top 10 game to Ed Menzel. 9.5 POC at the end including the bid. I had a good position after turn 3 movement but had awful dice on turns 3 and 4 and never recovered.
USN Endgame Comment: You were in a tough spot after T4. I botched the defense of Midway on T6 which made my life more difficult. It was exciting to the end, but you had too big of a hill to climb. Good luck in your future games.