The I-Boat Raid, North Pacific Option, and Reinforcement Flexibility adjustments are in play.
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Allied Report: I get lucky at Pearl as both CAs,
the 7th AF, 3 damaged BBs and a crippled BB escape Andy’s raids.
Groups W & Z show up in the HI giving me 3 CVs basing in Australia. Andy downs
the 5th AF and sinks Repulse. POC at usual 7.
Allied Report: Andy does the usual IJN pressure patrols. Since I only had 4 BBs sunk at Pearl, I feel I can afford a fleet defense of a Home Area. So I patrol lightly and spread my LBA out to USM, CS and Mari’s. Andy decides to go one area noting the effect of a poor Pearl. A poor Pearl does have a domino effect throughout the game. The US can't be bullied around as much.
Andy makes a nice move although I am a little surprised he only has 3 Indo LBA & Hosho. I don't really like any of my choices. I'd like the SP, but that looks expensive unless I got a night roll. I could take CP but is it worth the probable CV loses? Marshalls? I very well may control it as I think Andy will shoot at my CVs since he would have J Isl. Certainly helpful, but is it worth the CV risk? Add a suicide CV to the Marshalls plan? Another CV lost.
The HI? Very tempting! A night (28%) and I'm toast. I might skinny by with a first round D/N by targeting some of his surface - a little iffy. What I would really want is a D followed by a D (34%). A D followed by D or D/N (42%) might be OK.
Another option is Indo. I judge Andy as 60% or maybe 65% chance to hold the area. But a win would be very sweet!
Or I could play it safe by sending CVs/fleet to NP/CS/USM to gain surface attrition and only risk the IB shot at CVs.
I sent Andy all the above analysis and then asked him what he would do in my place. I included my choice way down below in the message so he couldn’t see it before he answered. Andy sent me the following:
I have yet to scroll down (but am dying too). What I would do would be this? I attack AI, NPO, CS and the USM. You already have a good surface edge and the IJN would be in worse and worse shape as the game went on. You would limit the IJN to 4 bonus shots total (Junyo plus sub) and be able to base a CV/ships at DH. As tempting as HI is, it is basically one roll for the game. If you think you can't beat me otherwise, you go for it (I would only try this against a few players). With your current position, a slight lead, I would look elsewhere. I also would not try Indo as the likely outcome is a loss of CV along with lost opportunity elsewhere. SPO is out as is CPO. A Marshall block with a suicide CV is a real possibility but I get the sense that it is not your favorite thing to do. I will send this off and then check to see what you decided on (and to clean off any mud that I have on my face!)
As always, I just tried to make your choice a difficult one with what I had to work with. As for what I think you did, I guess I would pick Indo/AI as you might think the attrition thing is a little tame.
Andy judged my main attack pretty well. Here is what I sent him for my pick:
The "safe" move seems too passive as it surrenders everything although I could still make an AI move with surface only. In the HI, I really need a D followed by D or D/N - less than 50/50 (42%). Game over if l lose the first D/N toss and maybe even with D followed by D/N. I probably lose more CVs in SP and maybe the same in CP/Marshalls as I would in Indo. But the payoff is not nearly as big. And I might not even win SP.
So (drum roll please!), I'm going for Indo with some other action tossed in. My odds are only slightly worse than the HI, but the downside risk is a lot less. The payoff is big - bigger than saving the HI. I will still have a fleet to carry on the fight and I think more likely to lose less US CVs.
It is D everywhere except N in AI (hooray) and D/N in NP. Andy has a good round sinking 2 CVs in Indo (uh oh) & 4 CAs. He also disables 1 CA. But my NP patroller remains which helps. But I also have a good round as 2 Indo LBA go down. (I don’t shoot at Hosho.) The IB hits Hornet (ugh!) but for only 1d (whew!). That gives me good odds of taking out the last LBA. The 7th AF comes through by disabling Sasebo in the Marianas for another nice result for me. Junyo is sunk in the AI and a CA in the CS.
It’s D/N for the 2nd Indo round. Andy sinks Hornet and puts 2d on Formidable. Uh oh! I had better get the LBA this round or my chances go down considerably. All fire goes on the LBA … and down it!! The mass of Brit surface fire also sinks Hosho. I lose 3 US CVs (so much for the LBA disabling rather than sinking theory!!) but it is well worth saving Singapore. And the Brits are now really in the game for next turn at least.
Lae, Philippines, Guad and Attu are still in US hands. Andy decides not to take Johnston Isl and returns Yokosuka to Truk.
That is a great turn for me. POC goes to 8.
Allied Report: Andy patrols most of the board. I would dearly love to put LBA in Indo to hold it and flip Saigon. But the big danger to me is a KO move by Andy. I only have 2 US CVs. I can’t afford to put them in big danger defending against a major offensive in the USM or HI. So reluctantly I put 5 LBA in the HI (to keep it or force a major IJN carrier commitment) and 1 in USM. Andy spreads out his SNLFs to try to take bases and then goes for the HI with most of his raiders.
I could go after his marines, but I do NOT want to disable them. Strangely perhaps I would rather lose a base than disable one. Disabled marines would be available next turn to go after N Heb and the KO. So I mainly raid to save POC and get some attrition.
Andy has one big advantage in the game and that is his big carrier fleet. I plan to stay one round in the HI to see if I can sink 1 or 2. Andy downs 3 LBA and damages one while I can only max out a 1-3-8 (ack!). So I run.
In the JI, I get day but Lex can only nick Fuso for 1 pt (double ack!). The 2nd round is D/N and Lex whiffs (triple ack!) My surface fire disables Fuso/-1 and cripples/disables Yamato. Andy sinks SF and disables a CA.
In other action Andy is able clear my patrollers in the Mari’s, SP and CP. His marines take D Harbor, Lae and Guad. I save the CS. I lose a Brit CA, CVL & BB and De Ruyter. He loses Hiyo, 3 BBs and 3 CAs giving me some nice attrition.
I flag the BoB, CS & USM. Andy gets the HI and Indo. POC stays at 8. I haven’t dented his big carrier fleet and he has a chance to control Indo next turn giving him Singapore. I still have a distinct advantage in the game but Andy is still dangerous.
Allied Report: Andy does the expected by
patrolling the USM and threatening control and a future KO. I only have 5 LBA
and I am not sure I would win a fight with Andy’s carriers in the USM. Some bad
luck there might make me vulnerable again on T5. So I plan to use only 2 to
defend the USM. Those plus the threat of my big raiding fleet will force Andy to
make a big commitment there if he wants the area. That should leave other areas
vulnerable. It would be really nice to be able to prevent IJN control of Indo to
prevent flipping Singapore. But I doubt I will have enough stuff to do that.
With the POC very low, I plan to mainly react, taking away POC. So I patrol
lightly planning LBA for the Marshalls/Mari’s.
Andy spreads his LBA out as expected although I didn’t anticipate one in the CS.
Nice move on his part. That forces me to send the 2nd Marine based in Kwaj to
the SPO to threaten Guad.
Andy goes for the USM and also raids the CS/BoB to try to eliminate my
patrollers. I like my game position and decide I don’t want to risk it by
raiding the USM. I would have a big wrap with BBs, but a couple pure D rounds
likely would mean big trouble for me. Indo is a possibility, but I would need
Wasp and Hermes to make SRs and still might not win. So I raid areas that give
me could odds of removing his patrollers and getting some attrition. In the SPO,
Andy will have to decide whether to target my marine or CVs if it is D.
Andy rolls the D/N and his first attacks, noting that my basing will be really
bad if I don’t save Guadalcanal. But Andy overlooked my option of running in the
areas I raid and basing in Singapore. Once it flips, the Singapore Sling will
let me move those ships to the Philippines – right where I would like them.
The SPO is D. Rats!! Andy targets the marine and manages to damage/disable it.
So much for Guad falling. Fortunately my air strikes sink the Zuiho and down the
23rd Air Flot. The I Boat shoots at the Wasp, hits (aack) but only 1 damage
(whew!). The USM is N allowing my LBA to escape. It’s D in the CS where the
OK/-3 is disabled. The Hermes disables Haruna during D in the BoB and Fuso/-1 is
disabled in the Mari’s.
Andy puts 3d on the Marine AF in the Marshalls, while I whiff. The Minneapolis
is disabled during D in the CPO and Kinugasa is sunk in the NP during N.
At this point a rule question comes up regarding Singapore. Andy wonders (and
asks for a ruling) if he can voluntarily not take Singapore but still control
Indo for the flag (for the 2nd turn in a row) and POC. That would be a disaster
for me if allowed as any Singapore based ships would be trapped in his flagged
area. It doesn’t seem likely, but we agree to await a ruling.
GM: Flipping an isolated base is not a voluntary action. There's no choice in the matter.
Glenn issues the ruling on Andy’s question. If you control Indo for two consecutive turns, Singapore must flip. Andy decides he can’t give up the POC and Singapore so his LBA stay to maintain control.
Andy stays in the Marshalls where he downs the damaged Marine AF while I whiff again. Ugh. He is now favored to win the battle. After much thought I elect to stay for another round mainly because I don’t want to lose the base if he controls the Marshalls again next turn. Andy fires again and downs my last LBA. Aack!! But our return fire is deadly also knocking the 21st Air Flot out of the sky. Whew!! Andy will now only have 4 LBA next turn which is a nice help for me.
In the CS, the 2nd round is N. The IJN fire is deadly as two damaged BBs are sunk. At least we sink both of his in return. I then run to Singapore.
In the CP, Andy gets pure D for R2 and promptly sinks a CA. I stay again. Andy splits the CA from Shoho. I pursue the CVL as I want to take out more of his carrier force. This time it is D/N. Shoho again sinks a CA, but she is sunk by return fire.
Both of us had some deadly shooting. POC balloons up to 18. Drat. The bulk of my fleet positions in the Philippines. I base three BBs in Australia to help deal with a T5 IO/BoB threat. The Allies have the advantage, but the IJN is still a threat to be reckoned with.
Allied Report: As expected Andy threatens a KO in the USM and spreads out other patrols to overload the ability of the Allies to respond. My first decision is how to handle the USM threat. I decide that 4 LBA and a few fleet raiders (if needed) should be able to handle it. I’d like to patrol the Mari’s to threaten flipping Saipan. But Andy still has more carrier strength than I can afford to tangle with, so decide against it. I send 3 LBA against his CS LBA because I can not afford to lose that area.
I send two marines to try to take Lae (abandoning the Philippines). Andy tempts me in the Mari’s when he allows me a big wrap and my flag. But the more likely D or D/N scares me out. So I raid to take away POC and get attrition. I depend on the flag and BBs to save the IO. The HI is so tempting that I decide try for it and the SPO – a decision I will later regret.
Andy gets N against the flag in the BoB, sinks the CA but whiffs on the Ramillies. I disable 1 BC and miss the other. But Hermes sinks the Kongo during the next round D action saving the area.
In the IO, Andy gets D and disables a BB, sinks a BB during D of the D/N action and a CA during the N portion. With no surface wrap left, I put all my fire on the two patrollers. I sink one and disable one saving the area. I stick around trying for a N action to go after the Hiryu, but Andy wins the D/N roll again crippling a BB. I then scatter and run losing the crippled BB.
We both whiff during D in the CS and Andy runs. Andy gets N in the USM and runs. I get N in the CPO and sink Mikuma for no cost. Andy fights in the NPO hoping to win the area. But I sink the Tone for no cost. Indo is D, but Andy whiffs on the marine. Whew!! We promptly take Lae. I have better luck in the AI, getting N and disabling Yokosuka to save Attu. The HI is D and Soryu and Lex sink each other before Andy runs.
In the SPO I finally decide to take Andy’s N preference in hopes of getting Lae (not knowing that my Indo marine would be able to do the job). My patroller is sunk and we can only cripple Nagato in return. The IB lines up on the damaged Wasp, but whiffs. Whew. I’m now guaranteed 12 shots minimum to bring down the LBA. But the dice are cruel as I whiff with 8 shots while Andy sinks Wasp. The next round sees Andy sink Sara (UGH!!!) while I can only put 3d on the 26th Air Flot. So close, but aack … no cigar. Now my T6 guys are blocked from Indo. I should have sent all three CVs to the SP and given Andy the HI. Sigh.
POC goes to 22. This game is getting tough!
Allied Report: Andy patrols the western part of the board to put pressure on me and weaken me in other key areas. His 4 surface Indo patrollers are weaker than expected. I have about a 25% chance to remove his patrollers in a N action if I send everyone that can reach the area. Andy makes the HI very uninviting with 5 LBA. I don’t want to fight there, so my 2 Samoa based marines go to the Marshalls for forward basing next turn and the SPO in case I lose Lae.
I decide on 6 Indo LBA to have a good chance to win the area if it is D and he brings all his carriers. That leaves me skinnier in other areas than I want, but that’s the way it will be. My raiders spread out to take away POC.
I win the all important Indo D/N roll with a pure D. Andy sinks the Hermes, while I put all fire on the two marines. I can NOT afford to miss. And we don’t sinking one and disabling the other. Andy runs with no pursuit.
During D in the Mari’s, Andy can only disable a CVL. Eight shots sink Akagi and I whiff on the LBA. Andy runs. It’s N in the CPO, but we can only disable Hiryu while Andy damages Quincy & Washington and then runs. Andy whiffs in the SPO against my patroller and we sink Atago. In the NPO, Shokaku and CV10 sink each other before Kumano runs. In the BoB, we sink one CA during D action.
I have a tough D/N decision in the IO when the IB goes there. I finally decide on D as I can not afford N if the IB takes out my CV while he still has one. Andy agrees with D and promptly sinks Essex. Aack!! I can’t afford to give him the 2 POC, so I shoot and sink his patroller. I stick around hoping for N when the IB whiffs. But it is D and Andy sinks a CA. With that, I run. Andy has some good luck in the AI, downing the wounded 11th AF for not cost.
I manage to pick up 4 POC to reduce Andy’s lead to 18. That is a big help, but the game is far from over.
Allied Report: As is the case many times, the US basing is awkward. Ships based in Australia can reach the JI & HI but not the CPO. Samoa based ships can reach the CPO & most of the interior, but not the JI. Andy has good options to defend/fight in any area I don’t have LBA. If he is able to control the CPO and base some of his fleet in Midway, he would be able to block any USN ships based in Johnston Isl from reaching the JI on T8. And he would be able to threaten more areas than I am likely to be able to defend.
Andy’s air superiority means he will almost surely be able to control the JI on T8. If he gets the CPO and I lose Attu (more likely than not) this turn, he will only need the JI and take away 1 POC on T8 for a tie. A tie is as bad as a loss for my prospects of winning the T10 race.
So I base a few ships and a couple carriers so as to be able to raid the JI and not give it to him too cheaply (I hope). Most of my fleet and carriers base in Samoa to respond to whatever Andy does.
The patrols for both sides are fairly straightforward. Andy sends 5 LBA (one has 3d) to the HI and one to the Mari’s. I put 3 in Indo as I must win that area to flip Singapore/Saigon to be able to base most of my fleet there for T8. Four go to the AI. I hope that is enough. The marines go as expected. Andy sends his carriers and some surface remnants to the HI counting on the flag to give him D actions. I can’t afford to send air to the Mari’s, so I go all out to the HI. I hope to win that and hurt the IJN enough to at least decontrol the JI on T8.
Andy gets D/N in the Mari’s and proceeds to sink both CAs for no cost. I get D in the AI, but one marine sneaks through taking Attu. Sigh.
The game outcome rests on the HI outcome where we both judge it to be about a 50/50 proposition. But it all goes Andy’s way. R1 is pure D. Andy’s fire sinks 3 carriers and disables 3. I concentrate most of my fire (30 of 36 shots) on the LBA. But I can only down 1 LBA although I take out his 3 best carriers with the help of the F Boat. With seven shooters left I desperately need a N action. But it is not to be as it is pure D again. This time Andy takes 5 of my 7 carriers out of action. My return fire is all against the LBA, but my 16 shots only down one more LBA. Thirty six shots downing only 2 LBA over two rounds was not what I needed. The next round is pure D again and his concentrated fire sinks my last two CVLs ending my chances.
With that Andy has a lock on the game. Congratulations on a very well played game by Andy. He shows how to be competitive in a game even with the loss of Indo on T2. That gave me a major advantage. But it cost me 3 US CVs. (still well worth it for me). But the loss of 3 more US CVs on T5 and his carrier survivability made it only a 50/50 proposition in the final air battle for the game.