Turn 1

Turn 2

Turn 3

Turn 4

Turn 1

IJN Report: The first round of air raids went very well -- with two battleships on the bottom and another three crippled.  However, the second round didn't go quite as well.  As a result, one functional BB (with 4 damage), one crippled BB, and a damaged CA escape with the LBA.  In Indo, I gamble on taking a few shots at the British ships -- sinking Repulse and putting 5 damage on Prince of Wales, but letting 5th AF escape with 2 damage when the first round is a night action.  The I-Boat whiffs on the Hermes.

However, the IJN may have been saved from their stupidity by the location uncertain dice -- which allow only Lexington to go to Australia and leave the North Pacific empty.  Overall, I'd say the first turn slightly favors the IJN -- but only slightly.

Sunk

553 West Virginia
453 Tennessee
443 Nevada
443 Arizona
443 Oklahoma
443 Pennsylvania
336 Repulse.
117 San Francisco

IJN gains the standard 7 PoC.

Turn 2

IJN Comments: I had planned to go with a conservative attack; however, whenever the USN uses LBA outside the home areas (as Nick does in both the Aleutians and Marianas), I can't resist the chance to go for the full court press.  That means a lot of areas (like CPO and Aleutians) are left with only a single CA patroller.  However, it also means that Indonesia can be held by 3 LBA while the others hold SPO and Marshalls.

I use fast ships in the Hawaiians in case speed rolls necessitate a retreat and also because Johnston Island will not be available as a base.  The slow BB go with the NLF to take advantage of a the forward base.  Despite the LBA in the Coral Sea, I elect to send the NLF there where its threat is maximum.  The reason this is such a huge threat is that, if the USN fights in the Mandate, the fall of New Hebrides gives IJN LBA a chance for a KO in 4.  If the USN fights in the Hawaiians, New Hebrides can be taken to allow easy conversion of Samoa while the fleet heads back to the Hawaiians with another NLF in tow or Port Morseby can be taken to threaten Australia.  With flags in Indonesia, Coral Sea and U.S. Mandate, odds are that the US will base nothing in Australia -- making the turn 3 ownership of both Indian Ocean and Coral Sea easy.  That sets up a serious conversion threat -- particularly if the USN LBA were all shot down while defending Samoa!  Of course, if the USN decides to fight in the Coral Sea, that gives the IJN a slight shot at a KO in 3 and divides the USN fleet at basing (with each half able to defend only one of Samoa or Pearl Harbor).

I make my U.S. Mandate fleet heavy on slow BB since the USN relies on night actions when it fights here.  The Coral Sea force is much lighter despite having the NLF along.

Nick responds to my raids by using surface units to save Midway while sending the bulk of his fleet to stop the NLF in the Coral Sea.  Given Nick's response, I may have to strengthen the Coral Sea vis-a-vis the U.S. Mandate in future games where I use the full-court press.

In the Aleutians, the Ashigara gets away from the 7th AF.  In the Central Pacific, Takao is sunk during a day/night action while trying to stop a USN flag.  In the Marianas, night action allows Sasebo to take the Philippines.  In Indonesia, the IJN LBA gang up on Revenge in an attempt to sink her.  They score some 16 damage -- enough to have sunk at least two BB if they'd divided those shots!  In the SPO and Marshalls, poor IJN shooting lets both Allied CA retreat without loss.  Night action lets the 11th AF escape in the U.S. Mandate.  This is a shame, since I very much like having less than 6 Allied LBA available on Turn 3.  Fortunately, the 5th AF is already damaged.

In the Coral Sea, we agree on day action.  I'm expecting the USN to gang up on my NLF such that at least one of Kaga or Akagi will get away or even remain in action.  However, after the big IJN CV only manage to sink Saratoga and disable Hornet, the USN spreads out.  If the 4 shots on my NLF leave her in action, Nick will be very sorry as a KO will be almost certain.  However, Nick manages to sink Yokosuka, Akagi, and Kirishima while disabling Kaga with 3 damage.  The USN CV are brutal!  The I-Boat doesn't come to the rescue.

The IJN beat a hasty retreat only to lose Hyuga and Aoba to pursuing carriers and Furutaka to pursuing CA.  Furutaka does manage to take Louisville with her, at least.  The five to one attrition edge for the USN this turn will make surface combat much less friendly in the future.  The one for one CV attrition is good for the IJN -- but the IJN would have preferred much more CV attrition.

Positionally, the USN is in good shape in the NE corner.  However, with both the U.S. Mandate and the Hawaiians under the imperial flag, the USN navy will be split in its defense.  The IJN should have an easy time converting one of Pearl Harbor or Samoa.  However, the strength of the USN forces may mean that won't be enough -- I'll also need to force combat to put some of those flat tops on the bottom!

Sunk

444 Hyuga
436 Kirishima
1+27 Takao
1+17 Aoba
1+17 Furutaka
146+4 Akagi
033 Yokosuka
033 Sasebo [Invades the Philippines]
443 Revenge.
117 Louisville
137+4 Saratoga

IJN converts Singapore and Lae by isolation; the Philippines by invasion.

IJN gains 10 PoC to increase the overall IJN lead to 17 PoC.

Turn 3

IJN Comments: With so many surviving USN CV, I need to find a way to exploit the advantage I gained by splitting the ocean in two (and the Allied fleet with it).  My patrols are scattered -- simply to take advantage of anything the USN leaves me.  They also take advantage of the fact that my LBA will not be on the offensive.  That also means that there's no reason to abandon Indonesia to the British (as if often necessary on turn three).  I even have an LBA left to patrol the Japanese Islands (in an effort to ensure that the PoC count reaches 29).  I patrol the Coral Sea with one CA just to force a greater USN response.

Nick surprises me with his LBA.  While mine are defending my perimeter, securing Indonesia, and protecting the PoC, Nick scatters his.  I expected a concentrated defense of Pearl Harbor with the fleet threatening to break my control of the U.S. Mandate as raiders.  That would have forced me to abandon conversion of Pearl Harbor or to have used almost all of my resources to conquer it.  I consider the LBA in the Aleutians and Coral Sea as gifts.  They'll win those areas, but they also enable the IJN to make a credible attack on both the Hawaiian Islands and the U.S. Mandate.

My attack has a few noteworthy features.  First, as I mentioned, Indonesia is not surrendered.  And with Hermes on patrol it's likely the British, at least, will fight -- giving me the chance to remove the British air power threat permanently.  Second, my relatively weak attack on the Central Pacific (using only ships that couldn't get to the Allied home areas) has an excellent chance of forcing a CV and Marine/NLF trade.  Third, my surface force in the Hawaiians is just enough to lap the maximum Allied force and get a BB against the lone CV that could show up.  With the IJN flag, that should be enough to deter any Allied effort to save Pearl Harbor.  The six medium and small CV I'm using there should beat the Allied LBA 60-70% of the time.  Forth, the Allied airpower edge in the U.S. Mandate is tiny while the IJN will have a surface firepower edge (though not a numerical edge).  If the Allies choose to fight here (as is likely), there's a high probability that a meat-grinder situation will result -- that is, a situation where the remaining Allied airpower is so small (e.g., one LBA) that the IJN fleet (with the flag) will not be intimidated into retreating and, therefore, remain to chew up the Allied fleet in one surface round after another.  The Allies will not dare to retreat unless they win in the Hawaiians.

Nick's raiders aren't a surprise -- as he brings the soon-to-be-withdrawn British CVL into Indonesia while using everything he's got to try to save Midway in the north while everything tries to save Samoa in the south.  His advantages in both areas are much too slim (i.e., exactly the type of fight the IJN seeks).

One very interesting thing about Nick's deployment (thanks to adjustment 3a) are the Marines in the North Pacific and Central Pacific.  Nick hasn't lost any of the northeastern bases yet, so these Marines represent a serious offensive threat in the future if they make it to base (which the NPO one certainly will).  These marines also represent the ability to secure and hold the corner even against the concerted efforts of the Japanese.  If the IJN doesn't take Pearl Harbor, the CPO corridor could make it nearly impossible for the IJN to win.  Even if the IJN does take Pearl, the strength the corner is held with will make a normally impossible comeback quite possible.

As much as I'd like the I-Boat in CPO to take a chance at stopping the Marine and allowing my own NLF to take Midway, it goes to the U.S. Mandate to help against USN CV as a stop-gap if there's a night action and as insurance if there's a day (in case one CV is still operational).

I ask for and get day in the Central Pacific.  As much as I'd like to stop the Marines, I have to sink some USN CV in order to have any hope in the game.  Hiyo does, in fact, sink Enterprise.  That'll keep Enterprise from shooting back at my NLF and at least let me exchange it for the Marines.  The island base is bad enough without forward Marines stationed there!  In return, however, the Enterprise whiffs against Hiyo.  Now the IJN have the edge -- and hold off the NLF in hopes that air raids will take out the Marines.  (If not, of course, the exchange can still happen.)  The second round sees an Allied CA take 1 damage.  The NLF is still at risk.  Ugh!  I press my luck again.  Next it's day followed by night.  Hiyo attempts to remove a BB before night falls but whiffs.  In the surface action, Yamato and Tone sink Mississippi and Salt Lake City.  The USN BB gang up on Hiyo (even though she didn't shoot at night) and disable her.  A lucky shot from a CA disables Tone to ensure neither side will control the area.  My NLF invades to trade itself for the entrenched Marines.  Yamato uses the next round to sink Vincennes -- hoping to go toe to toe with Idaho next (but figuring she won't be sunk).  Yamato takes 5 damage and is disabled.  Too bad...

In the Aleutians, Atago escapes with one damage.  Suzuya escapes New Mexico in the Marianas Islands.  Australia escapes at night in the South Pacific.  In the Coral Sea, Chikuma escapes to Truk.  Again the turkey shoots come up empty-handed.  The low attrition helps the Allies.

In Indonesia, the first round is day.  However, the IJN LBA can only manage 2 damage on Illustrious while disabling Formidable.  In return one LBA takes 3 damage.  The British run away.  I'd hoped to end British air power.  Instead, they'll have a full-strength 0272 and the Hermes for future turns.  However, the results are still better than giving the British control of Indonesia.

Meanwhile, in the U.S. Mandate I also win day action.  The first round sees Lexington and Yorktown sunk while Hornet is disabled.  Allied air cover is reduced to one LBA.  The Allies are in big trouble if a big IJN CV remains in action after the round.  Shokaku and Hosho are sunk.  Zuikaku and the damaged Kaga are disabled.  The CV attrition favors the IJN.  However, the IJN have no air cover.  The I-Boat misses its chance to removed a heavily damaged Maryland.  While the Allies are guaranteed to win the area if they refuse to run, the IJN have set up a surface meat-grinder and plan to stay for many more rounds.  With only two shots from one LBA and the odds of a night or day/night at 58%, the IJN cannot be intimidated into running away.  The second round is night!  Both sides shoot badly -- with the IJN sinking two CA and disabling two BB and one CA while the USN sinks one CA, disables 4 BB (two with damage), and puts minor damage on two other ships.  Even though the IJN lost its BB edge, I'll stick it out another round (as our surface firepower is still roughly equal while pre-existing USN damage makes Allied ships more likely to sink).  The next round is day.  The LBA sinks the damaged Haruna.  That tips the edge for me, so the IJN retreats in one group.  Thanks to slow USN BB, my retreating force is stronger than what can pursue and, therefore, gets away.

In the Hawaiian Islands, the first round sees only 2 points of damage on Allied LBA while Soryu is sunk and Junyo takes 1 damage and is disabled.  The odds now favor the Allies but not by enough to keep the IJN from staying one more round.  In the second round, the USN sinks Zuiho while the IJN completely whiffs.  I probably shouldn't stay, but decide to go for one more round on the off-chance that I get lucky.  I do finish off the wounded 7th AF (overkill with two hits); however, I lose Shoho.  The CV toll this turn is too high, but the odds aren't hopeless yet -- so I stick around in the hopes that Pearl Harbor will still fall.  The IJN whiffs completely again.  So far I've rolled half the number of expected hits (6) -- and all of those against just one LBA.  It'd be hard to imagine worse results.  The Allies whiff in response -- leaving me in the same situation as before.  This time my carriers manage a hit -- for 1 damage.  In return, the Allied LBA sink Ryujo and disable Hiryu (rolling three fives and one six).  The IJN retreats in disgrace.  Altogether the IJN rolled 41 dice for 4 hits to shoot down one LBA and put one damage on another -- losing 4 carriers in the process.

The turn looked good for the IJN until combat.  The results were unusual to say the least -- not just in one battle but all over the board.  The CV in the Hawaiians rolled enough dice to expect 7 hits (more than two per LBA target).  They shot down one.  Not only does Pearl Harbor not fall, but the Allies have a lot more LBA available next turn than usual while the IJN have fewer CV than usual.  Combined with Nick's excellent position in the NE corner, those extra LBA will make the IJN task of establishing a solid perimeter nearly impossible.  The battle in the U.S. Mandate was unusual in that so little damage was done to the USN surface fleet.  I'd have expected another 5-6 sunk ships.  Had those ships gone missing, the USN counter-attack on Turn 6 would be seriously hampered.  In Indonesia, the Allies get away with no CV losses -- when a normal set of results would have seen a British CVL sunk (and only Hermes left with any air power on future turns).  As it is, the British are at full strength going into Turn four.  The other odd result was the Central Pacific.  The first round pointed to a decisive IJN victory.  However, Hiyo was unable to capitalize on either day round -- unable to send so much as a CA away.  Ultimately, that leaves CPO as a massive hole in the perimeter and leaves Midway in Allied hands.  The IJN was unable to capitalize on its first round luck.

With the PoC held low, good Allied bases and LBA, no loss of a major port, a clear raiding lane from Pearl Harbor into the IJN interior, and two CV with which to raid, the IJN have some serious work ahead of them.  The IJN will have to parlay its LBA strength and remaining CV into a perimeter and substantial PoC lead before turn six.  That will be a tough task.

Sunk

436 Haruna
1+27 Myoko
138+4 Shokaku
128+3 Soryu
015+2 Ryujo
005+2 Zuiho
005+2 Shoho
014+1 Hosho
033 Kure
453 Mississippi
117 Salt Lake City
117 Astoria
117 Minneapolis
117 Vincennes
137+4 Lexington
027+4 Yorktown
027+4 Enterprise
0272 Formidable. [Removal]
0272 Illustrious. [Removal]
24* 7th A.F.
043 2nd Marines

USN gains 1 PoC to decrease the overall IJN lead to 16 PoC.

Turn 4

IJN Comments: My task this turn is close to impossible -- I need to secure a perimeter, move the PoC upwards, correct the attrition imbalance, and shut down USN options for the Turn 5 so that I can do it all over again next turn.

Chief among my objectives is the need to secure Midway and plug the gaping hole from Pearl Harbor into my interior.  I'll use my LBA on the perimeter (Indonesia, South Pacific, and Marshalls) where I need some luck to win the areas. I'd love to back them up with my fleet, but it's got to threaten the Allied home areas (if only to keep Allied LBA out of the forward areas), secure the PoC in the Marianas, and take Midway.

Nick is cautious with his patrols -- which helps me immensely, since it means that the Allies will be less able to exploit my weaknesses.

I'm disappointed with the LBA -- as Nick is able to put four in forward areas.  But it does, at least, leave me with a chance to win the South Pacific.

I'd love to concentrate my NLF against Midway for a "sure thing," but I can't afford to play it safe -- and my LBA are going to need a distraction in the SPO to win in that area.  So my NLF head for Guadalcanal and Midway.  The Allies don't play the safe move to keep Guadalcanal (by putting Marines in the Coral Sea), instead preferring to push for the Philippines or Lae.  I hope that gamble works in my favor, but I put a CV in Indonesia to help make certain.  The rest of my fleet protects the Marianas and attacks Central Pacific.

Nick brings the British CVL forward -- hoping to trade for Junyo whether there's a day or night action.  Interestingly, he uses his CV to attack the Marshalls (to which I respond with my I-Boat).  It's a risky move since the I-Boat may be able to tip the scales toward the IJN before the CVs shoot.  Elsewhere, Nick deploys to stomp on the 118s I use to patrol the Home Areas.

And stomp he does -- sinking all three of my speedy CA in the Coral Sea and U.S. Mandate.  The CA in the Hawaiians get away as does the CA in the Aleutians (although she takes 1 damage first).

In the South Pacific, the daylight action sees Sasebo sunk.  However, the Allies decide to retreat after the 5th AF is shot down and the Marine AF takes 3 damage.  In Indonesia, the first round sees Hermes disabled and the 1st Marines sunk.  In return, the British do sink Junyo before withdrawing.  Two pieces of the puzzle have fallen into place.  However, even here there are ominous signs for the future -- Guadalcanal did not fall (which will allow the USN to control it easily using LBA next turn).  In addition, once again the British CVL escape without injury -- staying at their maximum possible threat level.

In the Marshalls, the first round is daylight.  Hornet is disabled in the first round bouying IJN hopes.  Alas, it is not to be as the two Allied CV shoot down 25 AirFlot.  The lack of attrition against Allied CV is a serious problem.

In the Central Pacific, the first round is daylight.  The wounded Allied LBA disables the NLF and saves Midway.  Meanwhile, the IJN can only land additional small damage -- allowing the LBA to escape.  The key objective of the IJN is thus thwarted by a lone Allied unit.

The IJN gain no PoC this turn, suffer additional negative surface and carrier attrition, secure no basis, and still have a hole in their perimeter (albeit not at bad as at the start of the turn).  I don't think there's any hope although I'll complete my basing before making a final decision.  Even the best areas were not complete successes...

Sunk

1+18 Suzuya
1+18 Chikuma
1+18 Tone
124+3 Junyo
34* 25 AirFlot [Returns 6]
033 Sasebo [Returns 6]
24* 5th A.F. [Returns 6]
043 1st Marines [Returns 6]

Neither side gains PoC to leave the overall IJN lead at 16 PoC.

IJN Endgame Comments: After further review (while doing my basing), I notice that the Marshalls block is also in place (and would have been even if the I-Boat hadn't been foolish enough to shoot at the CV). With no possible threat for a blockade of the Turn 6 reinforcement (which I at least had this turn), the Allied LBA will be free to defend the forward areas -- even if I'm lucky enough to dislodge those in the Central Pacific with my two NLF. I conclude that the IJN offensive potential would be limited to a single area -- known in advance -- while the IJN LBA try to hold the line one to an area elsewhere. USN LBA, by themselves, will easily hold one of either SPO or CPO -- which means that, at best, the IJN will go into Turn 6 with a 16 PoC lead.

I reluctantly conclude that there's no hope at all. The Emperor therefore tenders the surrender of the Empire of Japan.

You played an excellent game -- minimizing risk and taking advantage of the luck that came your way. Congratulations! Pre-combat on turn three, I thought I had the game -- I'm not usually so wrong!

USN Endgame Comments: Turns 3 and 4 turned out much better than I expected, particularly with respect to the net POC, control of ports and bases, and the loss of Japanese carriers and surface ships. But I don't think the situation at the end of turn 2 was all that bad for the Allies. Even though you controlled both the Hawaiian Islands and the U.S. Mandate, I had sunk the Yokosuka SNLF (preventing the conversion of New Hebrides) and 6 other Japanese ships while only losing one American carrier, one American cruiser, and one British battleship. Since we were playing with rule adjustment 3a, my turn 3 reinforcements would not be trapped in Pearl Harbor.

Having played you before, I was expecting the 3 area attack on turn 2 and attacks on multiple objectives in later turns. On turn 2 my primary objective was to prevent your capture of New Hebrides. I tried to take advantage of your aggressive tendencies by providing several apparent weaknesses in my defenses while holding back a larger mobile reserve for counterattacking weak spots in the Japanese position. If necessary I could commit my raiders in a vital area, such as the USM on turn 3 to avoid the loss of both Pearl Harbor and Samoa or the Marshalls on turn 4 to crack the Japanese perimeter and threaten the conversion of Kwajalein and Maloelap on turn 5.

As the Allied player I try to avoid engaging large enemy fleets while creating multiple opportunities for smaller actions where the Allies will have the advantage in a night action or only risk LBA during day actions. I like to use the bare minimum number of defending units in areas where I expect the Japanese player to make their main attack, using additional units to threaten or protect multiple areas where the IJN is weaker.

Thus on turn 3 I only put 3 LBA in the Hawaiian Islands, using the other LBA to defend Coral Sea, USM, and the Aleutians. Even though I lost 3 carriers defending the USM, my LBA survived to control all three areas (partly because you split your available carriers to threaten both the Hawaiian Islands and the USM). Again on turn 4 you split your 2 available SNLF between the CPO and SPO, allowing my limited LBA (2 in SPO and 1 in CPO) to save both bases. My expectation was that I would succeed in at least one of the two critical areas each turn. Since the combat die rolls generally favored the Allies, I was able to achieve my objectives in all four areas.

I think the IJN would have been better off concentrating on one critical area per turn. On turn 3 you could have almost guaranteed the capture of Pearl Harbor by committing most of the available Japanese carriers to that purpose while giving up any hope of controlling the USM. On turn 4 you could have ensured the capture of Midway by sending both SNLF to the CPO.  (I would have had to commit precious American carriers to stop both SNLF.)  That could have been followed by an attempt to take Guadalcanal on turn 5.

The result could have been quite different if you had better luck shooting down my LBA and I had poorer luck shooting at your carriers and SNLF. But playing with rule adjustment 5, I knew that I could lose a few battles, ports, and bases and still come back as in our previous top ten match. I took a lot of calculated risks and most of them paid off in this game.

Congratulations, Nick!