The Normal Turn One variant is in play.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IJN Report: Two night rounds in the Hawaiians. That leaves 5 BBs bottomed in Pearl Harbor -- together with one BB, one CA, and the LBA who escape. Both British also escape from Indonesia. I must be losing my "sneak attack" edge. Anders doesn't try anything funky.
PoC ends with the IJN up by 3 (the usual NT1 score). None of the basing uncertain ships gets the chance.
Sunk
453 California
443 Arizona
117 New Orleans
24* 5th A.F.
IJN Report: I figure I'll be hitting the Hawaiians heavier than usual to finish off the bottomed guys. However, Anders uses his LBA in the Coral Sea, South Pacific, and Marianas. I can't pass up the chance for the full-court press against only a single LBA. I send the NLF to the U.S. Mandate. I successfully speed roll both CV from Yokosuka Navy Yard to the Hawaiians.
Anders goes all-out against the Hawaiians Islands -- 5 CV to 5 CV (although the IJN has two small ones plus the I-Boat) -- except for one BB in CPO. That's usually a sure-fire way to commit suicide as the USN. I flag the whole board and go to a lead of 16 (which should make ringing the bell easy and hurt Anders chance for a comeback sans bid).
However, Anders catches a break -- the day followed by night action in the Hawaiians (the worst possible result for the USN) sees only 1 USN CV sunk while another is crippled and another is damaged slightly and disabled. The I-Boat whiffs. In return, the USN sinks three IJN CV, cripples Junyo, and disables Zuikaku. The night round doesn't even go badly for the USN -- as the USN loses only two CA and kills one IJN CA. The USN kills one 436 in pursuit.
With the hole in CPO and three CV to exploit it, the USN is still in the game. I'll try to exploit the double-line of flags down the middle of the board next turn (which make Coral Sea and South Pacific easier areas for the IJN). I'll also try to invite Anders to a fight where he can lose some more CV!
Sunk
436 Kongo
1+27 Ashigara
138+4 Shokaku
005+2 Shoho
014+1 Hosho
033 Yokosuka [Invades New Hebrides]
033 Sasebo [Invades the Philippines]
443 Ramillies.
117 Chicago
117 Pensacola
117 Louisville
137+4 Lexington
24* 7th A.F.
24* 11th A.F.
IJN Report: My most sheltered areas this turn are the South Pacific and Coral Sea. Anders can contest them, but it will take scarce LBA needed to defend his home areas. That the USN only has 4 LBA instead of the normal 6 will make life easier for me this turn.
I push strong patrols into the U.S. Mandate and the Hawaiian Islands. I also patrol 3 CA into the Central Pacific as a potential invasion of Midway -- a base with far more importance now that Anders has made it unlikely that Pearl Harbor will fall. I patrol everything else with 1 CA (except Indonesia) or, in the Japanese Islands, Yamato. I don't deploy any LBA during patrols because I don't want the British to know that I intend to contest Indonesia. Some players might use the LBA in the U.S. Mandate, but I don't want to stake too much on stopping the US Marines from getting through to New Hebrides.
Anders surprises me during LBA placement by scattering his LBA -- one in the Hawaiians, one in the U.S. Mandate, and two in the Coral Sea. I counter his two in the Coral Sea with two of my own. That makes me a favorite to win the area -- without using a single ship. The CA patroller will be useful in the case where New Hebrides falls (post Coral Sea combat) or as a "tie-breaker." I also use two LBA in Indonesia and two in the U.S. Mandate.
My raids go heavily into the U.S. Mandate and the Hawaiians. Again, Anders faces a tough choice -- both will be tough fights and yet he still can't afford to lose both. My toughest choice is Hiyo. Guard the CV that's repairing, the NLF headed to Dutch Harbor, or the flag threat in CPO? In the end, I decide my CV losses have already been too high -- and guard the Japanese Islands.
Anders surprises me again by picking the tougher fight -- the U.S. Mandate (where I have just as many CV but also have two LBA and a lot more surface ships). He sends two CA each to the Marshalls and Marianas against my lone patrollers. He also sends one BB to the NPO to deny me control (along with the hulked CV). Against just two LBA, the British hit Indo full force, of course.
The North Pacific sees the Allied BB take 1 damage while my patroller is disabled. I stayed to fight because of the long-shot odds to get a shot at the CV. The IJN NLF from the Aleutians and the US Marine from NPO exchange themselves over Dutch Harbor. The USN has keep the NE corner very strongly.
The Marianas sees each side lose one CA. The Marshalls sees the IJN disable both Allied CA but get disabled in return on the parting shot. That key flag was so close I could taste it. The USN's POC raids have been very successful. In Indonesia, the IJN kills one 0272 in the first round while disabling the other. In return one LBA is shot down. The IJN disables both CA while taking no damage in the next two rounds. That will cut down the British CVL fleet to the lowly Hermes.
In the Hawaiians, the USN runs away after a night action -- which allows the IJN to finish off the two BB repairing from the Pearl Harbor raid. In the Coral Sea, the IJN LBA inflict 2 damage during the first round. The USN LBA whiff. Then the IJN shoots down both LBA in return for 3 damage on one LBA.
In the U.S. Mandate, the first round is daylight. The IJN LBA disable the Marine and then blow her to bits with 4 hits. The CV are less impressive -- sinking Enterprise while disabling Saratoga and Yorktown. In return, the IJN lose both LBA and Soryu. The next round is also day -- which sees the IJN kill the Allied LBA and disable Oklahoma. In return, the Allied LBA sinks Hiryu. Without air cover, the Allies are forced to wait until dark. They don't wait long, however, as the next round is day followed by night. Ryujo puts 4 damage on Colorado -- not enough to reduce Allied firepower.
The IJN surface fleet (with 6 BB and 4 CA) is less than impressive -- putting one damage on SD and MI, disabling 4 BB, one crippled BB, and one CA, and sinking only a crippled BB. The USN gangs up on my patrollers and Ryujo. Despite the low firepower on my BB, he sinks two while disabling three. He only sinks one patroller while disabling another. He misses Ryujo entirely. I stay even though I'll need a lot of day actions to make up the surface deficit (10 surface ships to 3).
Unfortunately, the next round is also day followed by night. Ryujo sinks Northampton. But my surface forces (with 6 shots of which two have the bonus) can't do anything right -- only disabling the crippled Nevada. In return, with a mere 9 shots, the USN disables Yamashiro and Furutaka while sinking Ryujo. My surface shooting really stunk this turn In the pursuit, Aoba puts one damage on Indianapolis (a fitting final shot for this turn) while being disabled -- also with 1 damage. An incredible twelve USN ships carry damage markers (while only 4 IJN ships can say the same).
I out-gain the USN in POC by 13 to 1 to take the IJN lead to 28. With no bid that should worry the USN some... This is a big lead even for a regular game -- and I've never had one this bid at this stage in an NT1 game.
While the number of hulls lost this turn was identical, the attrition is bad news for the IJN. Two of the USN losses were bottomed BBs left over from the Pearl Harbor raid. Another was a crippled BB. The USN has a significant surface edge -- which I expect to grow now that the USN is free of POC concerns (and, therefore, ever more likely to use his ships as raiders). It doesn't help that the USN will still have three operational CV (and another to repair) this coming turn. The USN has plenty of raiding room to exploit through the hole in the Marshalls too.
My one big edge is bases. Only Midway and Dutch Harbor are holding out -- and I'll have two NLF to zero Marines this turn. I hope to push my base edge strongly, score more CV attrition, and set up for a key turn five perimeter building move next turn.
Sunk
444 Hyuga
436 Hiei
1+18 Chikuma
1+18 Kumano
1+17 Kako
128+3 Soryu
118+3 Hiryu
005+2 Zuiho
34* 21 AirFlot
34* 22 AirFlot
34* 26 AirFlot
033 Kure
553 Maryland
453 Tennessee
443 Pennsylvania
117 Quincy
117 Northampton
027+4 Enterprise
0272 Formidable.
0272 Indomitable. [Removal]
0272 Illustrious. [Removal]
24* 5th A.F.
24* 10th A.F.
24* RAAF
043 1st Marines
043 2nd Marines
IJN Comments: This turn my goals were 1) take Midway and, if possible, Dutch Harbor, 2) take Pearl Harbor, and 3) cause as much USN CV attrition as possible. I also patrolled the USN home areas to allow an attack if the opportunity presents itself (and to force Allied commitment of LBA). To accomplish this I used my LBA to handle Indonesia and my attack on Samoa. If he fights in either, I should get good CV attrition and may win anyway. I also used my fleet heavily in the CPO. Anders put no LBA in the NE corner, so my lone CA escort in the Aleutians will guarantee that Yokosuka can take Dutch Harbor. I also scatter CVs in the Coral Sea, South Pacific, and Marshalls hoping to exchange one for a USN CV.
I get my wishes as the USN fights my lone CV in all three -- losing two USN CV along the way and being forced to run in the Coral Sea. I also convert both of the bases I'd set my eye on. The Japanese own everything in the standard perimeter plus New Hebrides. Unfortunately, I don't have the power to make a serious attack on Pearl given the number of LBA defending. However, I do flag the U.S. Mandate and can threaten Samoa next turn. The PoC hits 28. I trade two CA for two BB and one CV for two. The turn is pretty much everything the IJN could have reasonably hoped.
Sunk
1+27 Haguro
1+27 Atago
124+3 Junyo
033 Yokosuka [Takes Dutch Harbor]
553 Colorado
553 West Virginia
444 Warspite. [Removal]
444 Valiant. [Removal]
443 Resolution. [Removal]
443 Revenge. [Removal]
027+4 Yorktown
026+4 Wasp
24* 13th A.F.
IJN Comments: My goal this turn is to secure the perimeter while sinking more Allied CV so that I can resist the Allied tidal wave that's about to arrive. Naturally, I also want to see the PoC move all the way to 29. The areas of greatest concern are the Central Pacific and Indonesia, of course. I gamble that I can hold Indonesia with one LBA so that I can garrison the perimeter more strongly. I'd like to take Samoa, but it isn't reasonable against the expected Allied LBA defense.
My NLF goes to the South Pacific to try to defend Lae and/or Guadalcanal. The Allies use Marines in Indonesia, the Marshalls, and the North Pacific. Two of them (Marshalls and Indonesia) take four damage but manage to land anyway! So much for my invincible island defense ring!
I sink another USN CV plus both remaining British CVLs. That will ensure that the only threat to Indonesia next turn comes from LBA. I keep a spare NLF at Midway -- to ensure that that base is secure for LBA operations.
My Coral Sea LBA actually manages to shoot down an Allied LBA before running away. I didn't expect that...
When the turn is over, I have the 29 maximum score and a solid perimeter (except the Marshalls). The big problem is the bases I just surrendered too easily. The Allied LBA could make this a very tough game for the IJN.
Sunk
1+18 Suzuya
1+18 Tone
1+18 Mogami
1+18 Mikuma
033 Kure [Returns 7]
117 Wichita
117 Exeter. [Removal]
027+4 Hornet
0272 Victorious.
1241 Hermes.
24* 5th A.F. [Returns 7]
043 1st Marines [Takes Dutch Harbor]
043 2nd Marines [Takes Lae]
043 3rd Marines [Takes Maloelap]
USN Comments: Interesting stuff. 29 is a _huge_ amount of POC to make. But I actually have a fair chance at holding Indo this turn if the weather holds, and if I can pull that off the board sort of opens up.... all that surface attrition really helps out now.
I just read your comments on the game - interesting, as from my viewpoint I spent T2 & T3 trying to not end up in a losing board position - and if I'm going to take risks in defense, I might as well take the risk that gives me the maximum payoff. Thus I will defend Pearl on T2 as only really good IJN rolls will cost me the game - and I'm actually favored to roll enough to put the IJN in dire straits (see my game vs Ed Menzel...) Of course, I then had to do it all again in T3 as you didn't leave me any respite....
Yep. I'll gamble on getting day and winning Indo - accepting the risk of a 40-50% chance of losing the game outright if I fail. I'd be in the running mathematically if I fail at Indo and win at Midway...but if I wreck my CV fleet at Midway (same or bigger odds for that happening as winning at Midway) I probably lose no matter what happens in Indo...
IJN Comments: My surface fleet puts just enough in the Marianas and Japanese Islands this turn to guarantee a flag. My LBA head to the Central Pacific -- where they'll tempt the USN CV fleet to annihilate itself. The rest of my fleet heads to Indonesia to lock up that access-way to the Japanese Islands. The I-Boat goes to the Aleutians to see if it can't score a PoC but fails -- only putting 4 damage on Oklahoma.
It's a risky move -- given that the USN can put a ton of LBA in Indo and stop my NLF. However, I think it's my best shot. To help, I put one LBA in SPO -- which encourages the USN to move two LBA there. Another USN LBA guards the Hawaiians. That leaves just six in Indo -- which makes Indo safer than SPO. Fortunately, I get night, and it's academic. I also sent two BB to SPO to deny the USN the flag. That doesn't work as the USN destroys my LBA and both BB in a single daylight round. In CPO, I destroy the lone patroller.
However, with Lae falling, the USN gains only three net PoC -- taking the lead down to 26 -- and is forced to base all those ships back on the outer rim. A 9 PoC swing will win it for the IJN. Six will easily come in the Japanese Islands next turn (controlled by my 3 damaged LBA). I suspect that the rest of my forces will score another 4 in Indonesia now that Allied LBA can't get there. Next turn will probably see a lock.
Sunk
444 Yamashiro
444 Fuso
34* 26 AirFlot [Returns 8]
033 Yokosuka [Takes Lae]
1+0* I-Boat [Removal]
443 Royal Sovereign. [Removal]
117 Cornwall. [Removal]
117 Salt Lake City
IJN Comments: Because the tournament is ending in a few days and Anders is leaving town yet again, I decide to commit all of my forces to Indonesia during patrols (except the 3 damaged LBA and the NLF on Midway which go to the Japanese Islands). While I doubt this will change the odds in the battle, it does allow the USN to bring many more patrollers into Indonesia than would normally be possible. Nonetheless, with 9 carriers and 4 LBA plus the flag, I'll be a heavy favorite over the USN's 8 carriers.
The first round is pure night. The three bonus babies each remove a big CV while the I-Boat sinks another -- so much for 40% of my daylight firepower. The USN also sends away 9 surface ships. In return, all the IJN can manage is to disable seven ships -- sinking none of them. The IJN actually had more and better firepower directed at surface ships than the USN did -- but my BB were absolutely pathetic (with the seven of them sending away only two ships). The USN lap increases from three to five, but the USN firepower goes from inferior to superior too.
The second round is daylight. Whew! However, my relief is short-lived as my carriers and LBA shoot as badly as my surface forces did. No carriers sunk. One CVL crippled and two CV disabled is all we can manage. I'll need at least two LBA to survive this round along with four of my CVLs to win what should have been an easy battle. The USN shoots down two LBA and sinks Ryujo in return (while also putting 1 damage on Taiho).
The third round is daylight. My CV, 3 CVLs, and 2 LBA manage to disable Essex and Monterey. Three rounds with lots of shot without sinking anything! However, the USN return fire only puts 1 damage on an LBA -- proving that a bad round can also be outdone.
The fourth round sees the IJN air forces sink two CVLs while putting one damage on the last. The USN puts 1 more damage on the 23rd AirFlot. The fifth round is also day -- and sees the last USN CVL sunk.
That'll lock up the game as the USN gains 7 PoC to take the IJN lead down to 19. However, with no bid and a maximum gain of 17 next turn (which would be highly likely), that's a lock. I thought Anders was going to pull it out after the first two rounds in Indonesia this turn, and he also had an excellent chance at stopping my NLF in Indo last turn. So, in the end, I feel very lucky to have pulled this out!
USN Comments: As I sort of expected going into T7. In general my endgames could be better. But I also note that despite being down 29 POC and facing a T6 perimeter, the USN was still in the game! High POC counts just are not a killer for the USN.
Even if the dice added some swing the game the last two turns, the odds were for the IJN. On the average I don't find the dice really bad or good for either of us (I could have lost more CVs/ships T2&3, I could have lost fewer CVs and killed more CVs/LBAs on T4&5). And T7/R1&2 by far outweighed R3+ in the luck department.
Sunk
444 Ise
436 Kirishima
1+27 Myoko
146+4 Akagi
124+3 Hiyo
015+2 Ryujo
34* 22 AirFlot
34* 25 AirFlot
033 Kure
027+2 Independence
027+2 Cowpens
027+2 Princeton
043 1st Marines
043 2nd Marines [Invades the Philippines]