* * 2003-2005 Top 10 Invitational * *
John Pack (IJN; Bid 0.5) vs. Alfred Wong (USN)

The Normal Turn One variant is in play.

Turn 1
Turn 2
Turn 3
Turn 4
Turn 5
Turn 6
Turn 7
Turn 8

Turn 1

IJN Comments: NT1 isn't too different from the normal game as far as the IJN moves on Turn 1 go.  However, there are some key differences!  First, I hold back a lot of raiders just in case the USN is really aggressive (which, of course, persuades them not to be)!  Second, only 3 LBA go to Indonesia because one is insufficient to cover the Marshalls.  Since the USN doesn't patrol the Marshalls, two LBA there are adequate.  If they patrol, I might have throw in a fast CV like Hiryu too (which would make up for missing Pearl Harbor by sinking whatever is in the Marshalls)!  Third, I send more surface ships to the Hawaiians than normal.  i actually don't need as much as usual in the Central Pacific because the choice of whether to go there is up to the USN and the maximum USN CV force is Enterprise and Lexington.  As a result, all I need is enough to keep him from choosing to go there!

The Hawaiian raids go well.  To keep the 7th AF from shooting up Hiryu, I target 7th with six shots in the first round and hope to get lucky.  I do.  In fact, altogether only 2 BB (both damaged but not maxed) get out of Pearl -- of course, one of them is a 553.  The USN refuses to engage (as expected).  However, when both actions are night, the five bottomed ships in Pearl survive the turn!  I'll hope to air raid them and finish them off next turn.

In Indonesia, it takes both of the initial daylight rounds to shoot down the 5th AF.  As a result, it shoots back and puts 3 damage on the 21st AirFlot.  Both British escape when the third round is night.  With three damage on an IJN LBA, both British ships, and two BB out of Pearl, the Allied position is reasonable.  I'll be aggressive next turn to take advantage of the missing LBA.

Sunk

553 Maryland
117 New Orleans
117 San Francisco
24* 5th A.F.
24* 7th A.F.

Japanese

Allied

Neutral

Japanese Islands (3)
Aleutian Islands (0)
Central Pacific Ocean (1)
Marianas Islands (2)
Indonesia (3)
South Pacific Ocean (2)
Marshall Islands (1)

North Pacific Ocean (1)
Hawaiian Islands (3)
U.S. Mandate (2)
Coral Sea (2)
Bay of Bengal (1)

Indian Ocean

12 PoC

9 PoC

IJN gains 3 PoC.

Turn 2

IJN Comments: With just two LBA available, there's no chance I won't attack both U.S. Mandate and the Hawaiians in force this turn, so I patrol both with six ships (including two 436s in the Hawaiians).  Alfred begins the long repair of the bottomed stuff -- refloating one BB.  Alfred surprises me by using an LBA in the Marianas -- reducing his Home Area defense.  Because I want to be aggressive, I respond only with an NLF -- and trust to the 85% odds that that will be enough (combined with the increased chance for night due to the flag).

Since Alfred doesn't patrol Indonesia with the British, despite the Revenge being based in Singapore, I elect to use 3 LBA and the Junyo to secure the area.  Using a CV instead of a 4th LBA threatens to air raid Singapore.  As a result, the British charge in -- with three ships missing speed rolls (including Hermes).

With no Allied patrollers in the Marshalls, I use two LBA to secure the conversion of Lae and leave just one in the Marshalls (since I don't care if it's uncontrolled).

I split my forces fairly evenly between the U.S. Mandate and the Hawaiians.  The U.S. Mandate is heavier on surface while the Hawaiians have the NLF and an extra CV.  While it'd be nice to have more CVs in these areas, I can't pass up the chance to threaten the Coral Sea -- which could be mine cheaply if Alfred goes for one of the big areas or which could be critical in scoring CV attrition otherwise.

Alfred decides to fight in the Hawaiians -- but sends two cruisers to help in the Aleutians and Central Pacific.  If experience is any indicator, the IJN will win one of these fights (at least on the attrition end of things).

The USN only laps me by one surface ship in the Hawaiians, so I ask for night there and Alfred agrees (since the last thing he wants is a day followed by night)!  The night will also ensure that Yokosuka invades Johnston Island!  Unfortunately, West Virginia sinks Shokaku.  The I-Boat keeps the CV count even by disabling Yorktown.  However, the surface fight that should favor the IJN goes the other way -- the USN has two BB disabled (with 2 extra damage each), 1 CA disabled, and 1 CA sunk while the IJN loses three battlecruisers and two cruisers (with another damage to spare).  The IJN is still lapped by one, so I'll ask for day for the second round!

The first round in the Mandate is day, but the IJN whiff while the USN LBA disables Soryu before running away to fight another day.  The first round in the Coral Sea is night -- which sees the Allies lose one CA while disabling a Japanese cruiser.  In Indonesia, the first round is day -- which sees both British CVLs disabled.  In return, they disable Junyo to Truk.  In the Marianas, it's night -- allowing Sasebo to invade the Philippines.  In the northeast, Ashigara disables Indianapolis to deny the Allies a flag in the Aleutians but is sunk in return while Tone sinks De Ruyter in the Central Pacific to threaten Midway and ensure no Allied flag there.

The first round was definitely not what the IJN had in mind, but was not decisive either.

The second round is night everywhere!  Aack!  I miss in the Central Pacific, disable the last CA in the Coral Sea, and sink one BB and two CA in the Hawaiians while disabling another.  In return, the USN sinks Tone in the CPO (saving the entire Northeast corner), misses in the Coral Sea (giving the IJN the flag there), and sinks my remaining 436 and two CA.  With put 1 damage on another CA!  The New Mexico whiffs against Zuikaku!  That means with both still have 4 CV in the area!  Now the USN has no lap on the surface, but the IJN has enough ships missing the bonus that night isn't so great in the face of the single remaining USN BB!

I decide to ask for day --figuring that my token chances for winning the area are better with daylight.  Alfred agrees -- apparently both navies are contemplating too many surface losses!  The Japanese strike force disables Lexington while sinking Saratoga and Enterprise (pretty much what I expected).  At least I won't have to worry about a USN with all five CVs next turn!  (CV attrition is one of my top goals for Turn 2!)  In response, the USN sinks Zuiho and Shoho (the scratch and sink twins), puts 1 damage on and disables Ryujo, and whiffs on Zuikaku.  The exchange is bad news for the Allies...

The fourth round is also day (although the Allies now want night again).  The Zuikaku sinks the Hornet -- realizing the Allies worst fear.  Knockout potential looms if the Zuikaku is still operational after Hornet's counterstrike!  And even if the Zuikaku is gone, five surface ships on each side leave the fate of the Hawaiians up in the air -- something the Allies can't afford when the U.S. Mandate flies the Rising Sun!

Zuikaku lives -- in Truk, albeit, but undamaged!  On to the grueling surface fight...

The fifth round sees New Mexico disabled but the Allied cruisers go on a vengeance -- disabling one IJN CA and sinking two others (including all of my remaining bonus shots and patrollers)!  The attrition this turn has been ugly!  The remaining two wounded IJN cruisers break and run.  Both are disabled during the pursuit -- good thing, since I couldn't afford more surface losses!  The surface losses are even worse than the 11 ships I lost -- because the bottomed stuff at Pearl will be repairing along the way!  So the USN is much stronger than normal at the same time!

Fortunately, the PoC, bases, and CV attrition favor the IJN -- but it's still an unusual mix of advantages and disadvantages!

Sunk

436 Haruna
436 Hiei
436 Kirishima
436 Kongo
1+27 Atago
1+27 Ashigara
1+27 Chokai
1+27 Maya
1+18 Kumano
1+18 Suzuya
1+18 Tone
138+4 Shokaku
005+2 Shoho
005+2 Zuiho
033 Yokosuka [Invades Johnston Island]
033 Sasebo [Invades the Philippines]
443 Pennsylvania
117 Houston
117 Pensacola
117 Portland
117 De Ruyter.
117 Australia.
137+4 Saratoga
027+4 Enterprise
027+4 Hornet

Japanese

Allied

Neutral

Japanese Islands (3)
Marianas Islands (2)
Indonesia (3)
South Pacific Ocean (2)
Marshall Islands (1)
U.S. Mandate (2)
Coral Sea (2)

North Pacific Ocean (1)
Indian Ocean (0)
Bay of Bengal (1)

Aleutian Islands
Central Pacific Ocean
Hawaiian Islands
 

15 PoC

2 PoC

IJN converts Lae and Singapore by isolation; Johnston Island and the Philippines by invasion.

IJN gains 13 PoC to increase their over-all lead to 16 PoC.

Turn 3

IJN Comments: Evaluating my offensive possibilities with respect to CV losses last turn, one thing is clear from the start -- the USN can easily save Samoa by putting all six LBA there.  My CV might be able to handle five LBA -- but only if I get lucky.

Because I can be beaten in any of the areas where the Allies have bases, my patrols are designed to maximize the number of threats -- so that my main push can be wherever the USN LBA isn't!  Ryujo repairs -- while the USN wishes one of his was still around to repair!  My one strength is the small number of USN CV on the board -- which allows me to compensate for the hole in my lines with lone LBA in the Japanese Islands, Marianas, and Marshalls.  His two CV can try their luck against any of them -- but it'll take everything he's got while still leaving me (and the I-Boat) a chance to pull it off and cause more CV attrition.

I think my LBA in the Hawaiian Islands catch Alfred off-guard -- since his first four LBA go to Coral Sea, the Hawaiian Islands, and two to the U.S. Mandate after my first three take defensive positions.  The split leaves me with a solid threat in all three Allied home areas -- which I decide to pursue on the assumption that the USN will only be able to counter one of them effectively.

I raid two CV into the Coral Sea -- with the hopes of converting Guadalcanal and New Hebrides on the cheap.  I send 4 CV (including my three largest and Hosho) to deal with the two LBA in the U.S. Mandate.  I also reinforce CPO with the Turn 3 reinforcements and the Hawaiians with a single CV.

However, I horribly miscalculate.  Alfred not only has the surface edge -- he has enough to lap me in both the Mandate and the Hawaiian Islands.  I'd have speed rolled the Yamato to the Hawaiians or patrolled the CPO with one less ship if I'd realized this!

The first round of battle seems to go my way -- with both remaining UCN CV sunk in the Mandate (while taking 2 damage on Akagi and having two CV disabled).  In the Hawaiians, I sink one Marine and disable the other with minor damage.  The Junyo is also disabled.  That leaves the battle in the Hawaiians as 3 LBA to 3 LBA -- a 50% firepower edge for the IJN.  With just one big CV and Hosho left in the Mandate, it's unlikely that I'll win there -- but I'm hoping to shoot down at least one LBA so that my surface fleet can hang around and even up the surface attrition a bit.  (One LBA is definitely not enough to scare my fleet off!)  Unfortunately, the Coral Sea battle starts badly -- with the IJN whiffing while the USN disables Hiryu.

The second round is worse in the Coral Sea as the IJN whiffs again while the Soryu is sunk.  The USN saves Guadalcanal and New Hebrides and scores a 4 PoC swing against the odds -- even with the minimum of 9 shots, the USN LBA would be shot down 61% of the time (while the odds that there would be more than two rounds were 71%).

In the U.S. Mandate, the Allies get their wish for night -- disabling Akagi and Mutsu while sinking Nagato and Hyuga.  In return, the vaunted IJN navy sinks only New Mexico and Northampton (while disabling 8 more ships).  The surface attrition gets worse despite the superiority of the IJN fleet in every encounter thus far!  In the third round, it's day followed by night.  Hosho and the LBA all whiff.  The IJN surface fleet sinks the two remaining Allied CA without loss (to help the surface attrition a bit) and then withdraws.  The Allies save Samoa, score another 4 PoC swing, and do so without much surface attrition.  The plus side is that no IJN CV were lost in the Mandate -- while the remaining two USN CV were sunk.  It's interesting that the surface and carrier attrition are so diametrically opposite!  It doesn't help that the USN is successfully repairing all the bottomed stuff at Pearl Harbor!

In the Hawaiian Islands, the second round is a day followed by night -- and the USN hopes for even more surface attrition with their battleship edge!  In the air, the IJN LBA whiff while the 24 AirFlot takes 3 damage in return -- making the air battle much more even.  On the surface, the IJN disable Colorado and sink Vincennes.  In return, Nachi is sunk.  That leaves the IJN with surface edge.  However, despite the flag and asking for night from then on, there never is another night action.  In the air, the third round sees one undamaged LBA on each side shot down (which helps the USN most -- increasing their defensive edge while reducing their offensive gap).  The fourth round sees the damaged IJN LBA shot down.  The edge has swung to the USN.  The fifth round sees 1 damage on a USN LBA.  The sixth round sees one damage on the IJN LBA while the seventh round finishes the IJN LBA off.  All in all, the IJN sees a total of 5 damage from 45 shots against USN LBA -- and loses all three Allied home areas.  It's a PoC disaster -- since I had to give up Indo to the British to make the attempt.

The CV attrition (losing only one in exchange for both Allied CV) is the main positive of the turn.  I'm going to be hard-pressed to salvage a position.  Thank goodness for my CV edge...  The only other good thing is that few USN ships will be in Australia to take advantage of the hole in my perimeter.  But I don't think I have the forces needed for another big offensive... especially seeing that I was so ineffective against Allied LBA that Alfred will have 7 available next turn!

Interestingly, I think I'd have been better off with a lone patroller in the Marianas and an extra LBA in the Hawaiians -- that might even have lured Allied forces away from the main action besides reinforcing the main battles!

Sunk

554 Nagato
444 Hyuga
1+27 Nachi
128+3 Soryu
34* 22 AirFlot
34* 23 AirFlot
34* 24 AirFlot
033 Kure [Invades Midway]
453 New Mexico
117 Salt Lake City
117 Northampton
117 Vincennes
117 Canberra.
137+4 Lexington
027+4 Yorktown
0272 Illustrious. [Removal]
0272 Formidable. [Removal]
24* RNZAF
043 2nd Marines

Japanese

Allied

Neutral

Japanese Islands (3)
Aleutian Islands (0)
Central Pacific Ocean (1)
Marianas Islands (2)
South Pacific Ocean (2)
Marshall Islands (1)

North Pacific Ocean (1)
Indonesia (1)
Hawaiian Islands (3)
U.S. Mandate (2)
Coral Sea (2)
Indian Ocean (0)
Bay of Bengal (1)


 

9 PoC

10 PoC

IJN converts Midway by invasion.

USN gains 1 PoC to decrease over-all IJN lead to 15 PoC.

Turn 4

IJN Comments: The IJN has the carrier edge, but is woefully short on surface ships. No matter what happens this turn, it’s safe to say that I’m going to be wanting a lot of daylight!

I patrol the Japanese Islands and Marianas with enough to keep the 3 Allied CA in Australia from raiding both. I wish I could do more, but I figure I’ll lose one of those key PoC areas. I also decide, very quickly, that I can’t guarantee Indonesia – so I use just two LBA (and one of them very damaged). The odds are in my favor, but a lucky British fleet could win the game for Alfred.

During reinforcements, I decide to put one NLF in Japan and the other in Truk – to go after both Guadalcanal and Dutch Harbor. I can also threaten to convert Attu if I control the Aleutians again. If I can get all of those, my perimeter will be pretty decent. I also patrol pretty much everywhere with one ship – figuring the USN will give me something.

The USN spreads his LBA, so I decide to put my last LBA in the Hawaiian Islands to threaten an easy PoC harvest in the NE corner next turn, to draw the USN into battle, and – set up the full Applebaum if I get lucky.

In the end, I decide to back up my flags in the Aleutians, CPO, and Marshalls with CVs. I put a big CV in the Aleutians to give me a shot at converting both bases. The Hermes is just to up the ante if the USN want to break a hole in my line (enough that I hope he can’t fight in both CPO and the Hawaiians). The Hiryu heads to the Marshalls to stop the Marine. The rest – four big CV – head to the Hawaiians. No matter what Alfred does, I’ll have the daylight advantage – hopefully I can get several day actions in a row and eventually air raid the bottomed stuff in Pearl Harbor before my surface disadvantage grows worse!

The USN response leaves everything but the Hawaiians, North Pacific, and Coral Sea high and dry. The Marines in the Marshalls can only get away with a disable result. They don’t – taking three hits.

In the Aleutians, it’s daylight. My CV score a hit that’s big enough and bring down the LBA. The LBA whiffs – and both Attu and Dutch Harbor are mine.

In the North Pacific and U.S. Mandate, my 118s run away during the day. In Indonesia, the British withdraw at night. In the Coral Sea, I get my wish – daylight – but the LBA disables the NLF – winning the South Pacific for the Allies. In the SPO, Yamashiro takes 4 damage before getting away to Yokosuka Navy Yard.

The big battle in the Hawaiians starts off with a day followed by night action. Ouch. Akagi targets Wasp while rest of my carriers and my LBA try to eliminate the USN surface lap. I whiff on the Wasp. Ack! I sink the damaged Idaho, but only disabled the damaged Mississippi and Nevada (now with 3 damage). The plan is working until my LBA fails to remove a lowly 117 – leaving the USN with a lap of one. The Wasp sinks Akagi while the Allied LBA disables Hiyo. The bonus babies do their work at night – sinking Junyo, Fuso, and Oi while disabling Yamato, Mutsu [-4], and Ise. I’m able to sink South Dakota in return while putting 2, 3, and 4 damage on Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia. I also disable Washington and Chicago. Once again, the USN bests the best surface fleet the IJN can muster – and keeps their lap to boot.

The I-Boat keeps me in the action by putting 2 damage on Wasp.

However, the second round is pure night. Surface power continues to dominate this game. The IJN disables Indiana and North Carolina (in a really bad round). The USN concentrates fire on Kaga and sinks her (while missing everything else). That leaves both sides with 3 ships, so I ask for night and get day/night. The USN sinks Oi and disables Aoba while my CA gang up and sink West Virginia (with three hits that would have been ideal had then been spread out). My LBA also inflicts one more point of damage on an Allied LBA. The next round is day. The IJN LBA whiffs and is shot down. I’ve had disastrous luck against LBA in this game – beating them only once (in the Aleutians this turn).

I may have some hope of setting up a perimeter (since the base situation is good), but the PoC count may never even hit 20!  That may be my ultimate downfall!  Hopefully my two NLF will be able to secure Guadalcanal to score the "normal" perimeter.  Unfortunately, they won't have access to the Coral Sea back door.  The one bright spot of the turn is that surface attrition goes my way -- albeit slightly.  That may help me in the long run...  The Musashi has never been a more welcome reinforcement!  The USN will completely repair two of its bottomed BB this turn -- since I have yet to prevail in the Hawaiians!

In retrospect, the Hosho should have been in the Hawaiians this turn too.  After all, if I'd won the Hawaiians, a hole in the CPO would be no big deal.  And while the Hosho isn't a strong ship, she'd have gotten to shoot 3-4 times at least -- enough to make a difference.  And, if she'd removed even a cruiser on that first round, the USN would have had no lap against my CV in any of the night actions.  That, I suspect, would have been decisive.

Sunk

444 Fuso
1+07 Oi
146+4 Akagi
145+4 Kaga
124+3 Junyo
34* 26 AirFlot
033 Yokosuka [Invades Dutch Harbor]
5+65 South Dakota
553 West Virginia
453 Idaho
444 Valiant. [Removal]
444 Warspite. [Removal]
443 Revenge. [Removal]
443 Resolution. [Removal]
24* 13th A.F.
043 1st Marines

Japanese

Allied

Neutral

Japanese Islands (3)
Aleutian Islands (0)
Central Pacific Ocean (1)
Marianas Islands (2)
Indonesia (3)
Marshall Islands (1)

North Pacific Ocean (1)
South Pacific Ocean (1)
Hawaiian Islands (3)
U.S. Mandate (2)
Coral Sea (2)
Indian Ocean (0)
Bay of Bengal (1)


 

10 PoC

10 PoC

IJN converts Dutch Harbor by invasion; Attu by isolation.
USN converts Johnston Island by isolation.

No change to IJN lead of 15 PoC.

Turn 5

IJN Pre-Movement Comments: Here's a comparison of the operational fleets at the start of the turn (not counted bottomed or maxed ships that will likely spend the turn repairing):

  Battleships Cruisers Carriers Land-Based Air Marines
Japanese 4 11 3/2 5 2
American 8 8 0/1 9 1
British 4 5 2 - -

My CV and LBA edge (in areas where I'm the only one with a base) should enable me to establish a solid perimeter.  One element not shown here is that the USN BB force has 4 BB with significant (not maximum) damage -- that could result in a higher ratio of ships sunk vs. disabled.  I hope anyway...  Of course, the USN will fully repair two bottomed BB this turn while the IJN repairs a maxed BB -- further strengthening the USN 2-1 BB edge.

Having the Wasp out for repair and only Victorious available will make defense a lot easier this turn!  Unfortunately, 9 Allied LBA will make offense almost impossible...

IJN Post-Movement Comments: Given that a flag in the Hawaiians is my best chance for a victory (since it'd give me another turn to solve my PoC problem), I choose to rely exclusively on LBA for my perimeter -- even though I'm taking gambles in Indonesia (against two British CVLs) and CPO (where a Marine or lucky Victorious could punch a hole in the line).  My position is desperate enough to warrant such a gamble.  If I win the Hawaiians and lose CPO, I'll still be OK since there won't be much to take advantage of the hole.  I'm also counting on my NLF to win the South Pacific for me.  This approach leaves almost my entire fleet available for an offensive if the opportunity shows itself.  I put patrollers in NPO, Hawaiians, U.S. Mandate -- hoping to spread out the USN LBA.

Alfred distributes his LBA as I'd hoped, so my raiders strike hard in the Hawaiians.  Alfred responds by sending everything that can reach the Hawaiians to fight.  The British, of course, take up the challenge in Indo (especially since it's likely the Victorious will be lost in the Hawaiians).

My strategy means that the USN only laps my fleet by a single ship -- which gives me good hope for surface attrition at night and enough security for my carriers that I hope to have a fair chance at beating the LBA.  Could it be possible that I'll be able to finally air raid all those bottomed and repairing ships?  (It's fitting that Arizona is the final bottomed ship.)

The first round in the North Pacific sees Furutaka sunk, Indianapolis taking 1 damage, and Dutch Harbor invaded.  I'd hope the IJN bonus would work a miracle there and put an IJN flag down -- making a reinvasion from the Aleutians possible.

In the South Pacific, the flag does the job as night comes up.  Colorado sinks Sasebo but can't stop both NLF.  Kure invades Guadalcanal to win the area for the IJN.  I'd hoped for a disable from Colorado -- so that Lae could be defended.

In the U.S. Mandate, my cruisers get away unharmed (despite a day action).

In Indonesia, my LBA puts maximum damage on Indomitable -- guaranteeing no more British 0272 fire for the  rest of the game.  The British whiff in return.  My perimeter gambles all look like they'll pay off.  CPO and SPO are flagged.  Indo looks good.  Fear the Hermes?  NPO would have been useful, but it's not critical.

But in the Hawaiians, Alfred's command of the day/night roll continues with a night action.  That's OK -- my hope is to score a lot of surface attrition to make it difficult for the USN to patrol during its counter-attack.  But it's not to be -- the IJN rolls badly again.  Only the North Carolina (which already had 3 damage) is sunk.  The IJN also disable two BB and put maximum damage on another.  The cruisers whiff completely!  In return the USN Bonus Baby disables Hiyo.  Yamato, Musashi, and Ise (with 2 damage) are disabled to Truk.  The damaged Mutsu is sunk as is Haguro.  The IJN get off easy considering what little damage the IJN did.  Nonetheless, the USN now laps the IJN by three (all of which are operational BB and one of which is a bonus baby).

The odds in the Hawaiians are now lower than the low odds of pulling it out in the remaining turns, so the IJN beat a retreat.

The attrition this turn helped the USN.  Here's the fleet situation at the start of Turn 6 (not including the two BB the USN will repair during Turn 6):

  Battleships Cruisers Carriers Land-Based Air Marines
Japanese 4 9 3/2 6 1
American 9 10 4/5 10 2
British 4 5 1 - -

The USN LBA will let Alfred patrol his own areas without ships with enough left over to threaten Indonesia and the South Pacific.  And his surface fleet is so much bigger than the IJN's that he'll be able to offensively patrol and still have the edge in any important battles.  My biggest edge is the middle position -- since it's doubtful his fleet will be able to reach everywhere!  However, I expect that'll only be good for one more turn...  Will that be enough to stem the PoC tide?

Sunk

554 Mutsu
1+27 Haguro
1+17 Furutaka
033 Sasebo
033 Kure [Invades Guadalcanal]
565 North Carolina
0272 Victorious. [Removal]
043 2nd Marines [Invades Lae]
043 3rd Marines [Invades Dutch Harbor]

Japanese

Allied

Neutral

Japanese Islands (3)
Central Pacific Ocean (1)
Marianas Islands (2)
Indonesia (3)
South Pacific Ocean (2)
Marshall Islands (1)

North Pacific Ocean (1)
Hawaiian Islands (3)
U.S. Mandate (2)
Coral Sea (2)
Indian Ocean (0)
Bay of Bengal (1)

Aleutian Islands

12 PoC

9 PoC

IJN converts Guadalcanal by invasion.
USN converts Lae and Dutch Harbor by invasion.

IJN gains 3 PoC to increase their over-all lead to 18 PoC.

Turn 6

IJN Comments: With the score so low, the game should already be hopeless.  However, with only one USN ship (Astoria) that can reach Indonesia, I actually have a slight chance.  My strategy is to use my LBA to defend the Central Pacific -- where the USN's overwhelming surface advantage won't do them any good.  And to use my fleet to take Indonesia.  Together with the nearly free PoC in Marianas and the Japanese Islands, the USN will only gain 3 PoC this turn and the Japanese Islands will be "free" next turn.  Assuming my fleet and LBA can take Indonesia next turn, the USN will only gain 7 PoC next turn.  If I can then win the Japanese Islands on Turn 8, the USN will gain only 11 PoC.  That leaves me needing to pick up 4 PoC along the way to win -- not an impossible task.

Alfred's patrols remove all the pressure on the Japanese Islands and let me completely screen my CVs and NLF in Indo during raids.  Surprisingly, Alfred decides to commit the USN CV and Marine to the Central Pacific.  Odds are in my favor in that battle -- and Alfred does not need to win the CPO to win the game.  This is probably the best possible scenario for me -- since a big CPO victory will make it easy to control Indonesia next turn and may provide the opportunity to score those extra PoC I'm looking for.

On the other hand, the Indonesia raiders make perfect sense -- this is a great time for the British to make the surface advantage of the USN even bigger.  The loss of the British surface will not hurt the USN much (if at all) -- since an IJN win in Indo this turn means that the British will never be based forward of Ceylon anyway.  And, of course, the Allied LBA will likely win the game here unless the first round is a night action -- allowing Lae to be taken.

I elect to put the I-Boat in the Aleutians -- in the hopes that I can deny the Allies a PoC (and reduce what I'm looking for to 3 PoC) and keep Attu from converting (thereby allowing the IJN NFL to deny the Allies another PoC on turn 8 by taking Dutch Harbor).  But it means that I have no insurance in CPO if it's a night or if my LBA miss the Marines and also pass up the chance to keep the Marines in SPO from re-taking Lae if it falls.

The first day/night roll in Indo is night!  The biggest piece of the puzzle has fallen into place.  The I-Boat whiffs in the Aleutians -- of course, it doesn't matter what you shoot at when you miss.  However, it's night against the flag in the Central Pacific (a 1 in 6 chance).  And that ends the game -- since I'll now need to come up with a lot more PoC and have no screened areas at all.  I knew my chances were low -- and figured to lose in daylight action in Indo.  But I didn't figure to lose in CPO this turn...

I made a risky move -- and the odds were certainly against everything working.  Nonetheless, I still think it was the right move in the circumstances -- desperate as they were.  Alfred played a solid game -- and showed what a huge surface advantage can do for the USN!  Next time I think I'll be more likely to go with a Pearl-emphasis strategy when there's a lot of repairing junk left in Pearl Harbor!

USN Endgame Comments: Yes, who woulda thunk both amphibious forces would land? My BBs definitely made their presence felt, something I desperately needed after losing all 5 carriers by turn 3! You played your usual great pressing game. Fortunately I didn't crack as my LBA held tough.

Congratulations, Alfred!


Victory in the Pacific® is a registered trademark of The Avalon Hill Game Company.