The I-Boat Raid and CPO Withdrawal adjustments are in play.
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IJN Report: A mixed Turn 1 result, as 2 crippled
BBs, 1 damaged BB, 2 undamaged
BBs, 2 CAs & the 7th AF escape
Pearl raids. Only 3 BBs are sunk. Ouch! The I
Boat whiffs in the HI at an escaping BB. Indonesia is a clean sweep for the IJN
however as both BBs & the 5th AF are
sunk. Groups X & Z show up in the CPO, but elect to take the safe route and
retreat to Pearl. Groups W & Y are on the west coast. So no CVs can base in
Australia. That certainly helps, but the large surviving USN fleet will create
problems for the IJN. POC at the usual 7.
IJN Report: My patrols go out such that I can use a 1, 2 or 3 area attack. Nick patrols very little which gives him a large raider force. I decide to go with a 1 area attack and try to protect the perimeter with LBA/carriers. The AI is essentially a “gimme” for the USN. A 1-1-8 patrols there to be able to outrun pursuers there during D. The Marshalls is the next weakest because there are no patrollers there and no threat of a block.
Nick decides to go for the SPO & save Lae. Other forces spread out to gain favorable attrition.
One Brit BB is damaged in Indo. Sasebo takes the Philippines under cover of darkness. Chikuma outruns 6 USN CAs in the Aleutians after D non-action. The IJN loses a CA each in the CS & USM during D.
In the SPO, 2 CVs are sunk & 1 dinged during initial D action. Return fire sinks Shokaku and damages both LBA for 2 pts ea. The I Boat disables the damaged Enterprise. It is starting to look good for the IJN with 2 damaged LBA vs 2 CVs. But my hopes are dashed as the LBA can only ding another CV before being shot down. Rats!
POC goes to 13.
IJN Report: The USN has a large surface fleet and 3 CVs so I concentrate on the HI & the AI/Dutch Harbor. With the LBA there, I can’t win the AI. (Because I can’t afford to send carriers.) But I hope the potential of N action will drive the 6 raiding US CAs out. Plus I have a good chance to capture Dutch Harbor. One LBA goes to the HI to add insurance for the conversion of Pearl – plus it may bring the marines out where they can be more easily killed.
Nick again concentrates on the SPO & decontrolling the CPO. The T3 BBs & marines come out in the HI.
Kure takes D Harbor after dodging bombs from the RAAF. That means no Allied ships will be in the NE corner. That’s one pain out of my side. Canberra dodges bullets in the Marshalls & retreats unscathed. Chikuma is not so lucky in the CPO. She is sunk after whiffing against the Astoria.
In the SPO, Saratoga is disabled, but the 22nd Air Flot is shot down. The I Boat helps out by sinking the damaged Enterprise.
In the HI, it’s D. Hmm. I want to sink the marines so they are not available on T4. But that would take a lot of carrier shots to have good odds of that. So I decide to ignore the marines & shoot everything at the LBA. I should be able to get a lot of shots at them in later rounds. Three LBA are sunk & 1 damaged. The Allied return fire sinks Junyo & disables Akagi & Hiryu. The USN scatters & runs. During pursuit both marines and 2 BBs are sunk in exchange for an IJN BC.
POC goes down to 12. Ugh. Plus the Allies (without the Brits) will outgun the IJN surface ships by 3 BBs & 1 CA at the start of T4. Double ugh!! With Indo/SPO/Lae in Allied control & POC low, the IJN will have a major challenge to pull this game out. The one significant advantage for the IJN is that they still have a lot of carriers (10) although the USN will have 3 for T4.
IJN Report: This turn poses some serious problems for the IJN. We have to keep Indo out of Allied control to prevent Saigon from flipping. The bulk of the USN fleet based in Lae, where their BBs can reach the JI/Marianas without SRs. We need Lae & hopefully Guadalcanal to be able to build a perimeter. And we need to gain POC. Although we have good carrier superiority, we will have to fight in Allied flagged areas with an inferior surface fleet.
I don’t see a way to do all this on T4. So we do what we can. Single CAs patrol areas the Allied fleet can’t reach. CAs patrol the USM to threaten a KO in five and the SPO to go after the area where I can send marines to take Lae/Guadalcanal. I will only be able to back up one area with raiders. I will decide which one after I see the Allied LBA placement. I painfully decide I don’t have enough surface to patrol the JI/Marianas where they would be duck soup for USN raiders. (I’m guessing Nick will put enough LBA in the USM to keep me out. If so, then his fleet can choose to raid, as his bare CVs will likely have some attractive options.)
Nick patrols very little – probably to prepare for a fleet fight if needed. (I was happy to see no patroller in the JI.) He is aggressive with his LBA sending one to the AI to protect Attu. Two each go to the SPO/USM. I anticipated 3 LBA in USM.
Hmm. I was going to hit the area with the fewest LBA. Now what to do? If I go for the SPO, his fleet & carriers are free to hit whatever area they choose. I rate my 3 LBA/I Boat as about 50/50 to beat his 3 USN CVs & the 2 Brits. He could also hit the one LBA in the HI or Marshalls with good odds to win. If he wins Indo, he wins the game. If he decontrols the HI, Johnston Isl will be vulnerable to invasion next turn. If he controls the Marshalls, he will still be in very good shape. If I send carriers to back up those 3 areas, I won’t have enough SPO carriers left to intimidate him from a big battle there. Plus his 2 SPO LBA by themselves would have a 58% chance to remove 1 or both of my marines.
So I decide to go for the USM & KO in five threat. He could have a 5 ship surface wrap on me, but I will have a big carrier advantage. That might be enough to keep him out. I don’t think he would send his surface fleet without carriers. If he brings everything, I will go for D and try to take out his CVs and do some damage to his fleet. If it’s N, that could be bad. But at least I am a 58% favorite for D or D/N. I’d rather be in a fight where I’m a favorite, even if it’s not a heavy favorite. If he does commit to the USM, then my LBA will hold Indo/Marshalls/HI which would be good. One problem remaining however is that SPO/Lae/Guad will still be in Allied hands. This is a fairly high risk strategy. But I am in a hole, and I don’t see any winning conservative strategies.
Nick decides to bring everything to the USM. It’s probably the right move since he wouldn’t have very good odds of protecting New Hebrides or removing my patrollers with just his 2 LBA. So it’s a big fight.
In Indonesia, Hermes is sunk but takes out an LBA with return fire. Ouch. Allied & IJN CAs successfully dodge LBA bombs in the AI, Marshalls & SPO.
In the USM, it’s N. Uh oh!! This could be bad, real bad for the IJN. The first round N action sees 4 US BBs/3 CAs sunk, 6 BBs/1 CA disabled and several ships damaged - a good round for the IJN. The USN does not shoot so well however. Zuikaku, Soryu, Hiei & Aoba are sunk. One BB & 4 CAs are disabled. Now the IJN has a 2 ship lap including 8 BBs vs the one remaining USN BB. That can happen when the US BBs attack CVs/patrolling CAs while the IJN BBs are going after US BBs. Worse yet for the USN, the IJN still has a patroller. So the USN has to stay for another round. To make matters even worse, the I Boat then sinks the damaged Saratoga. There is no point in landing my marines since I won’t control the area and therefore can’t get the KO. Plus it’s conceivable he will control the area and protect N Hebredes with his 2 turn controls.
On R2, the IJN gets N against the flag! More damage to the USN fleet. The Lexington/five USN CAs are sunk and 2 disabled with a few other ships taking damage. The USN return fire sinks nothing and disables 3 ships including the last IJN patroller. The USN ships then scatter and run. IJN pursuit sinks the Wasp & 3 more surface ships at the cost of the Yamashiro & Hiryu. I decide not to invade N Hebredes so as to have 3 marines for next turn.
The USM is a debacle for the USN. All three USN CVs & 15 surface ships are sunk to 3 CVs & 3 surface ships for the IJN. The IJN got lucky and came out of the fight as good as they could have hoped for. However the game is still very much a challenge for the IJN. POC is only 15, Lae/Guadalcanal/SPO are under Allied control, the USN will have 3 marines next turn and the Marianas is open.
IJN Report: There is a wide open raiding lane through the SPO/Marianas to the IJN interior. Fortunately only 2 USN CAs are based in Guad, as the retreating/disabled T4 USM ships based in Australia. In addition, the 2 returning marines base in Australia to pose a threat to the Philippines & help hold Lae for the Allies. The Allies have only the Vicky & Formidable however for carriers which is a big help.
Enough surface ships patrol the JI & CPO to have good odds to hold those areas. Handling the perimeter & Marianas is a bigger challenge. I should be able to build POC this turn, but must have Indo or Marianas next turn for more POC. So this turn will be all about control of bases (Philippines/Lae/Guad). I put 2 LBA in Indo and plan a CV raider to counter the anticipated 2 marines and Formidable. That plus the I Boat for back up will give me favorable odds to remove both marines. (Assuming I am able to take Lae from the SPO, so Indo marines can’t disable there.)
I need to divert some LBA from the SPO, so 3 heavy CAs patrol the USM (threatening to control it & lock in the T6 carriers). One CA again goes to the AI, threatening control & an easier time of sneaking a SNLF under cover of darkness next turn to capture Attu. That likely will also draw an LBA.
That will still leave a lot of Allied LBA for the SPO. However I should have favorable odds to have at least 1 SNLF survive to invade Lae. But I will need the combo of Indo/SPO results to have both Lae/Philippines under IJN control. This is going to be nail-biting time!!
I decide to put 2 LBA in the HI, because I don’t want to add the risk of the Vicky decontrolling the area versus 1 LBA. That leaves 1 LBA for the Marshalls (the least important part of the perimeter) and none for the Marianas. Sigh.
So surface will have to hold the Marianas. That’s not too unreasonable since all of his BBs and a couple CAs will have to speed roll to get there. And several of his BBs are damaged. So I put my 4 big BBs there, but Musashi fails her SR. Three CAs patrol the SPO. My raiders will now go to the USM or SPO depending on the Allied LBA.
Nick patrols only the Brits, holding his depleted surface forces for raiding. When 3 LBA go to the USM, I decide that the risk of him removing my patrollers is too high. So I plan to hit the SPO and that’s where my SNLFs go. His marines deploy as expected.
I beef up the Marianas forces with the raiding Fuso. I’m hoping that will be enough to keep him from going there. If he does come in, I should be able to get some more attrition on his already damaged fleet. The rest of my raiders go to the SPO. The USN can get a 5 ship surface lap if they bring everything. If they do, I will go for Day which I think Nick will give me so he can attack my SNLFs. Then I will target his surface fleet instead of the LBA. I may be able to stick around long enough, to sink so many ships that he will have major difficulties in the later turns. If he stays out of the SPO, then I will hope for N. If it’s D, I have a chance to beat his LBA as I will get one round of free fire while he’s shooting my SNLFs. Plus there is about a 20% chance that at least 2 SNLFs will survive a Day action!
Nick raids the SPO with everything. This is a significant risk for him too as I may further trash his fleet even if he removes at least 2 of my SNLFs – and probably a disaster if he loses both bases.
I follow my plan by fighting SPO first (to try to convert Lae before an Indo marine can disable there) and ask for D. I hope I have 2 marines survive or I trash his fleet enough that I still have a chance to pull the game out. Nick agrees with D in the SPO, and I get the critical D roll in Indo to be able to shoot at his marines. I also get N in both AI/USM against the flag!! But the big one is Indo.
In the SPO, I sink the Az, disable 2 other BBs including the In (with damage) and max damage the Ma. In Indo, I disable 1 marine & damage another one. Uh oh. Now I need the I Boat to come through for me or I am in trouble.
His return fire in the SPO is a total flop as he can only damage 2 SNLFs & whiff on the other one!! Egads, I have all 3 marines alive. In Indo, the Formidable does come through for him however, sinking the damaged Kaga. Now the I Boat fires … and sinks the remaining marine. So the luck all goes my way as I invade Lae & Guadalcanal to disable his LBA.
Nick decides to stay in the SPO for N (presumably to take out my patrollers). I get my wish for D and shoot at his fleet again. I have a good round of shooting as Vicky and 3 CAs are sunk and the N C disabled. The Vicky sinks 1 patroller. Nick also decides to stay in Indo (I assume to try to take out an LBA before the Formidable is removed on T7). The Formidable is sunk at no cost to the IJN.
In the SPO, Nick gets his N on R3 and sinks a patroller and disables the last one. However all his remaining ships are sunk in my Night attack and a following pursuit round.
It’s a disaster for Nick, as the luck all went my way this turn. The only USN ships still afloat are 4 BBs. POC goes to 22. It will be a very tough road for the Allies from here on.
[Map]
IJN Report: I miscounted Nick’s surface ships at the end of last turn. There are 5 USN BBs instead of 4. The lack of a fleet will be a major problem for him.
Most of my fleet will patrol/defend Indo to better protect the Philippines/Lae against the US marines. By spreading LBA across the front of my perimeter, I can use the big bruiser BBs in the Marianas. The Allies will need their CVs to break my perimeter and I don’t think they can afford to try to break my Marianas control too. In this case a strong offense will make a good defense.
Nick decides to challenge in the SPO, Marshalls & HI. The odds are against him, but on the other hand he is such bad shape that he probably has to try it.
But the odds (& IJN LBA) prove too tough as they hold the SPO/Marshalls. The I-Boat whiffs in the HI. After 1 round of fire, 2 carriers are disabled while the LBA don’t take any damage. At this point, Nick resigns.
It was a tough game up to Turn 5. I got lucky there to win the battle for the bases & with that the game.
USN Endgame Comments: Ed's IJN did not do well initially at Pearl Harbor, and I had a pretty strong USN position at the end of turn 3 (large fleet, several interior bases, and low POC). However, Allied losses of carriers, surface ships, and vital bases on turns 4 and 5 were so debilitating that the Japanese perimeter could not be breached on turn 6 and Ed's POC maxed out.
I was too timid with my patrols on turn 4 and lost too many ships during the big battles in the USM (turn 4) and SPO (turn 5).
IJN Endgame Comments: Turn 4 hurt you. But if the bases had gone your way on T5, I would have really been scrambling. I got lucky both those turns. Your continual pounding & control of the SPO on T2 & T3 & control of Lae gave me a lot of problems.