Turn 1

Turn 2

Turn 3

Turn 4

Turn 5

Turn 6

Turn 1

USN Comments: Ed opens up with a vengeance -- sinking or bottoming every single ship in Pearl Harbor.  Fortunately, the 7th AF strikes back -- sinking Hiryu and vindicating IJN worries about taking out the air strip.  A night roll for the 4th round against Pearl Harbor (the USN refusing to engage), let two bottomed ships survive (with 10 damage each)!  In Indonesia, the IJN bags the 5th AF and the Prince of Wales while Repulse escapes at night.

I elect to play it conservatively -- patrolling most areas with two CA and keeping my CV safe so that they can mount a threat from Australia next turn.  Ed takes advantage of the NPO's lone patroller when the I-Boat rolls a disable (denying the USN a PoC).  During basing, Saratoga rolls a 1 and bases in Australia.  My night forces are in shambles, but my carrier threat will be at maximum next turn.

IJN Report:  This is a fairly standard NT1 opening.  I patrol the CPO heavily so as to discourage any USN adventures there and free up the maximum number of my carrier assets to hit BB row.

I’m still of the opinion that it is better to shoot at Pearl BBs with all my air strikes rather than divert some to the 7^th AF.  It takes too many bonus shots from BBs to have a good chance of destroying the LBA on the ground.  I risk losing a CV, but there is only a 26% chance of the Hiryu being sunk on the 2^nd round.  We shoot well as we sink or bottom all 10 ships on BB with 2 rounds of air strikes.  But … ugh … the 7^th AF comes through for John & sinks Hiryu.  Ouch.

Indo turns out better as the 5^th AF & the PoW are sunk.  The I Boat goes after the obvious lone patroller target in the NPO and disables it to save a POC.  Saratoga gets to base in Australia to add to the T2 Indo threat.  Sigh.  POC at 4.

Sunk

118+3 Hiryu
456 Prince of Wales.
453 Tennessee
453 California
443 Pennsylvania
443 Oklahoma
443 Nevada
443 Arizona
117 New Orleans
117 San Fransisco
24* 5th AF
 

IJN gains 4 PoC.

Turn 2

USM Comments:  With no Pearl Harbor survivors, I elect to go with a very conservative and minimal set of patrols.  I give up the chance for a few flags, but I also avoid attrition potential in areas I won't win anyway.  Even the British don't patrol -- since the principle threat on Turn 2 is keeping Singapore from converting.  (And if it convinces an opponent to put less force in Indo, it could result in a TKO in 2 for the USN.)  By minimizing patrols I also gain maximum ability to respond to whatever Ed's got in store for me.  I use three LBA in the U.S. Mandate to force the IJN to abandon any pretense of going for all three Allied home areas.  And, without Hiryu, the IJN will be taking some risks to go for the Mandate at all (assuming the IJN will go for the Hawaiians, of course).

Ed takes an interesting approach that I haven't seen before (or so long ago that I don't remember).  CPO, Marshalls, and SPO are garrisoned very heavily.  In fact, that's probably the strongest SPO I've ever seen.  The Hawaiians have massive surface escort to go with the NLF and 4 CV -- making it unattractive as well.  I've got a very safe move available plus very risky options -- and very little in between.  I only see two attractive options -- one is the Marshalls block with a suicide CV to take out the NLF in the Hawaiians.  The plus?  The IJN forces in the Marshalls will be shooting at the patrollers rather than my CV -- unless they get a night action first to free up the LBA to shoot at CV in later rounds.  However, regardless of what happens scoring the flag is unlikely -- which would make the suicide CV of substantially less value even if it succeeds!

As a result, I elect to go with the conservative approach -- sending CV and surface after his unprotected patrollers.  Since they're 118s, I'll only get one round of fire -- so I try to balance my forces to create maximum carnage in one round.  I send one BB to the Aleutians (which fails its speed roll) principally because I want one BB in the northeast corner (even though it would have a better chance to shoot in the U.S. Mandate).

I'm surprised that Ed puts the I-Boat in the Coral Sea.  With only one CV in the Northeast, the I-Boat had the potential to reduce USN threats next turn there significantly.  However, with a low bid NT1 game, I can also understand going for the PoC in the Coral Sea.  If Ed rings the 29 bell, it'll be close-to-impossible to recover -- and even if he doesn't, he'll want to push it up as close to 29 as possible.

The first round sees daylight everywhere.  I even agreed to day in the Marshalls to avoid a day/night possibility.  This is the only turn 2 I can recall where the USN is glad to see sunshine everywhere!  In the Marshalls, the IJN sinks one CA and disables the other to Samoa.  That's a good result as far as I'm concerned!  In the Aleutians, the IJN CA is sunk without loss.  In the U.S. Mandate, all four IJN CA are sunk by massed Allied airpower.  In the Coral Sea, Saratoga whiffs.  Ironically, this was the only area where the day is followed by night.  Ack!  That'll let the CA shoot at my patroller -- and possibly free up the I-Boat to shoot at a CV.

Sure enough, the Tone sinks the patroller.  At least the I-Boat whiffs on Saratoga!  My three CA manage to sink Tone to mark the end of the IJN 118s.

At Pearl Harbor, the IJN finishes off the two bottom dwellers that survived last time (with close to quadruple damage on each)!  While the surface attrition goes for the Allies this turn, I don't think we've made up for lose everything at Pearl Harbor last turn.  However, at least we've closed the gap!  The PoC situation is dire.  14 isn't that atypical in games without the NT1.  Ed's been able to steal a few PoC each turn -- and that will add up in the end!

IJN Report:  My patrols are pretty standard.  I do patrol a CA in the SPO in case I can’t afford an LBA there.  (John might put LBA in Indo or I might put 2 in the Marshalls in case I decide to do a 2 area attack.  John puts 3 LBA in the USM.  I debate with myself about a 1 area or 2 area attack.  Very reluctantly, I finally decide to go with a 1 area. 

When I do a 1 area attack, I prefer to more heavily defend areas that are needed to convert key bases.  So the SPO & CPO are priority areas (after Indo & the HI of course).  When I recently played another Top 10 player, 2 CVs & an LBA weren’t enough to keep the USN out of the SPO.  So I add a CVL for some additional discouragement.  I’m hoping that 2 CVLs & a marine in the CPO will be enough to keep John out.  I count on the large surface advantage to offset the relatively weak carrier force in the HI to discourage John from attacking there.  That leaves the Marshalls relatively weak and the AI really weak.  With 2 big BBs in the Marshalls it is unlikely that John would be able to get a block.  So he would risk some CVs for not much payoff.  Let’s see what he does.

John elects to play it safe with his raiders.  I almost put the I Boat in the AI to try to get rid of the NE corner carrier threat.  But I decided that with the low bid in an NT1 game, 2 POC may turn out to be very significant.  The I Boat has a 44% chance to remove the 1-1-7 CS patroller vs only a 22% chance to sink the Yorktown in the AI.  So I go for the CS.  If I can get N, my CA may take out his patroller.  If so then the I Boat can still shoot at a CV.  It wouldn’t be as valuable as sinking the NE corner pain and it would be harder to sink the 1-3-7.  But it gives me good flexibility depending on the D/N roll.

Rats!!  All the D/N rolls go John’s way as he gets D shots everywhere.  (He agrees with anything I want in the Marshalls to avoid the D/N.)  And boy does John take advantage of it!  Five 1-1-8s are sunk.  YUCK!  I was hoping to have a couple survivors.  Ironically, his only whiff is in the CS, where it was D/N.  I sink 1 CA in the Marshalls.  Now let’s see if the Tone’s guns can take out the patroller.  YES – the Louisville is sunk & 2 POC saved!  Now visions of sugar plums dance in my head!  Can the I Boat take out the Saratoga to give me a chance to win the area?  Alas, no.  It’s a whiff.  To compound my surface attrition problems, the 3 US CAs sink the Tone.

So it’s another mixed bag this turn.  No USN CVs sunk is going to be a major problem for me and the surface attrition definitely went John’s way.  The bright spot is that the POC is at 14 (and I’ve converted a number of key bases).

Sunk

1+18 Tone
1+18 Kumano
1+18 Mikuma
1+18 Mogami
1+18 Suzuya
1+18 Chikuma
033 Yokosuka [invades Johnston Island]
553 West Virginia
553 Maryland
117 Louisville
117 Australia.

IJN converts Singapore, the Philippines, Lae, and Midway by isolation; Johnston Island by invasion.

IJN gains 10 PoC to increase the over-all IJN lead to 14 PoC.

Turn 3

USN Comments: Ed bases an NLF in Midway.  It's a smart move -- since it'll let him shut down the whole NE corner next turn provided he puts any sort of escort with both NLF.  I hold back all but one CA in the NE to force him to use a maximum number of ships and carriers.  The one CA goes to the Japanese Islands -- where it'll threaten a flag and a six PoC swing (which should also draw a big response).

In the south, I have to keep most of my ships on raid to force the IJN to use his surface fleet in the Hawaiians.  That means a single patroller in most areas -- which puts more PoC on the line if Ed continues to hunt PoC with the I-Boat.

As expected, the stress I put on the IJN results in the British getting Indonesia for free -- while Ed waits for two CVLs to be withdrawn.  The forces in the Japanese Islands and Aleutians are too big, so I cut and run -- fighting for surface attrition and small PoC in CPO and North Pacific.  In the South, I elect to hit SPO over the Marshalls primarily because CV based in Guadalcanal will be able to threaten everything that's opened up (while I'd have to split the threat between Samoa and Australia if I took the Marshalls).  The SPO plan is also not dependent on the patroller surviving,  It's also worth one extra PoC.  I put the surface in Coral Sea so that they can choose between New Hebrides and the Coral Sea bases.

I ask for day in the Japanese Islands with the hope that the CA makes it out alive.  It doesn't.  That'll teach me to pass up my chance for a 5 on Yamato -- which would have been worth 3 PoC!  Unfortunately, the CA in Marshalls is also sunk.  I sink the NPO CA without loss to make up for half.  In CPO, Salt Lake City is disabled on the first round.  I'll stick around -- but I don't like 3-1 odds...  In SPO, a first round night action sees the I-Boat miss.  Whew!

In the Hawaiians, Ed uses 8 shots on each Marine -- but he still scores six hits on my LBA (shooting down three and wounding two others).  That's the results I'd have expected if every IJN shot had been on LBA.  Aack!  In return, my LBA disable 4 CV (one four-banger with 2 damage, one 3-banger, and two 2-bangers).  In a losing situation, the results are almost worthless.  It's close, but I decide to hang around for one more round.

In the second round in SPO, the Hornet is sunk.  The 23rd AirFlot also goes down with three hits (while I whiff on the 21st).  In CPO, Haguro sinks Portland before being sunk in return.  But that still leaves me one CA short on the surface attrition this turn...

In the Hawaiians, the 7th AF takes two hits.  Then Ed rolls snake eyes to leave her with 3 damage.  Unfortunately, Ed makes good by shooting down both other LBA.  In fact, except for the snake eyes Ed has rolled higher than 3 on every damage roll.  In return, I disabled Akagi and Zuikaku while sinking Shoho (the first kill since the first turn).  Despite the fact that I'll lose my last LBA easily, I'll stay for the next round since Kaga and Hosho are the only remaining CV.  If I can disable (or sink) Kaga, the three BB in Pearl should escape -- helping my desperate surface attrition arena!

My biggest concern after the second round is the SPO -- where I'm at risk for losing a second CV.  I'd really like to stay at five for the four turn.  Ed, however, solves my concern by withdrawing -- to save the LBA for next turn.  It's a good move by Ed despite leaving me with a lot of CV -- since he'll be pressed in Indo and lots of other areas next turn.

The 7th AF is handily shot down, as expected, in the third round.  Unfortunately, Kaga is unaffected by the return fire -- leaving 5 bonus shots per round of the air raid on the three BB in Pearl Harbor.  Colorado is bottomed (and lost) while North Carolina takes 3 damage during the air raids.  That's about as good as I could hope for (once I missed Kaga).  Getting those two BB out will help my surface forces immensely!

IJN Comments: My strategy of defending the SPO, Marshalls & CPO fairly heavily last turn worked well.  In one respect maybe too well as I ended up with no CV attrition.  That makes life difficult this turn.

The obvious primary goal is the conversion of Pearl.  A second goal will be to drive the USN out of their NE corner pocket in order to eliminate that thorn in my side.  Sasebo was able to base in Midway at the end of last turn.  Combined with Kure this turn and some fleet support, I should be able to force them out of the AI.  I don’t think John can afford to divert enough LBA to help defend the AI to do him any good.  I hope to protect the JI.  I want flags in the JI and Marianas for the anticipated T4 flag defense as well as the POC.

John patrols somewhat aggressively which I think is a good move.  He threatens the control of Indo, JI, SPO & Marshalls knowing I’ll have trouble adequately defending everything.

As I frequently do, I abandon Indo to the Brits.  Four LBA go to the SPO and Marshalls.  I want the flag in the SPO for the anticipated T4 fight for Guadalcanal.  I also don’t want a US flag in the Marshals and the threat of base conversion next turn.  Two LBA go to the HI to help out in that fight.  Plus it usually brings out the marines which makes them easier to kill.  (Of course I’ll need N or D/N so I don’t have to divert air strikes to take them out.)  All of Johns LBA go to the HI as they typically do.

I wish I could spare a CVL for the SPO and Marshalls.  But I can’t.  I raid the AI & JI with enough to probably keep John out of those areas.  John will be able to get a 2 ship surface wrap on me in the HI, but I’m banking on my air power to discourage him from coming in there.  That leaves nothing extra for the CPO/NPO.  I can only stretch so far.

John sends his raiders where I probably would have – the CPO, NPO & SPO.  The 3 Pearl BBs stay in port no doubt anticipating that I won’t have enough carriers left for a damaging air raid.

The I Boat goes to the SPO where maybe (I hope!!) it can turn the battle my way.  John is the favorite but at least it is a reasonable possibility for me if I can get N the first round.  We’ll see what the dice gods have to say!

We agree on D in the JI (I’d love to get all those guns on the De Ruyter, but I also don’t want to risk losing 3 POC on Yamato being disabled in a N action.)  CPO is N by definition.  I get my N in the SPO but John wins a pure D in the HI.  Rats!!  We each get our D in the NPO/Marshalls.

The I Boat whiffs on the Hornet after the N “battle”.  Uh oh, the odds don’t look good for me in the SPO.  The 2 green CAs are sunk in the JI/Marshalls and SLC is disabled in the CPO. 

In the HI, I vacillated between 8 & 10 bonus shots each at the marines.  I really want them sunk & not disabled to pose a T4 threat.  I finally decided I needed more shots at the LBA & couldn’t afford 10 each on the marines.  The dice gods are kind to me, as both marines & 3 LBA are sunk.  Two more LBA are damaged.  WHEW!  That’s as good a shooting round as I could have hoped for.  Well OK, not as good as I could have hoped for, but certainly more than I might reasonably expect.  Now to see what damage John’s return fire does.

Chokai is sunk in the NPO but he whiffs in the CPO.  Four carriers are disabled and Shokaku takes 2d in the HI.  John gets rid of some carriers but none are sunk.  That helps.

In the SPO, I stick around and sink the Hornet in exchange for an LBA.  With 1 LBA facing 3 CVs, I decide to run.  I think I will need the LBA next turn and my odds aren’t good to sink a CV (30%).  In the CPO, Haguro and Portland sink each other.

John sticks around in the HI to try to sink some carriers and reduce what I have left to raid his BBs in Pearl.  All 3 LBA are downed over 2 more rounds and he finally sinks a carrier (Shoho).  But only Kaga and Hosho are left to raid Pearl.  (Interestingly Kaga for the 3^rd turn in a row and Hosho for the 2^nd turn in a row!)  The CO is sunk and N C damaged.  I was very lucky to only lose Shoho.  Interestingly both of our CV fleets are pretty much intact.

After some thought, I finally decide to invade both D Harbor and Attu in the AI.  I really could use one of the marines next turn. But leaving Attu in US hands is likely to cost me 3-5 POC before the game is over.  So I decide to take the bases while I easily can.

Sunk

1+27 Haguro
1+27 Chokai
005+2 Shoho
34* 23 AirFlot
033 Sasebo [invades Attu]
033 Kure [invades Dutch Harbor]
553 Colorado
117 Portland
117 De Ruyter.
117 Canberra.
027+4 Hornet
0272 Illustrious [Removal]
0272 Indomitable [Removal]
24* 5th AF
24* 7th AF
24* 10th AF
24* 11th AF
24* RAAF
24* RNZAF
043 1st Marines
043 2nd Marines

IJN converts Pearl Harbor by isolation; Dutch Harbor and Attu by invasion.

IJN gains 1 PoC to increase the over-all IJN lead to 15 PoC.

Turn 4

USN Comments: I threaten everything except CPO, Aleutians, and NPO with 4-5 CV this turn (with all five in the key areas such as Indonesia).  PoC should be OK this turn -- since I have a sheltered area in Coral Sea (and Bay of Bengal, for that matter).  There's no way the IJN can defend everything -- even with his CV fleet intact and most of his LBA.  Ed patrols lightly -- with BB in areas where he wants to be able to deny me control if needed.  With my LBA depleted from last turn's battle, Ed is also free to heavily patrol the U.S. Mandate to threaten conversion next turn.

I use both of my LBA to cover the U.S. Mandate to see if the IJN will be easily disuaded.  I don't like scattering my cruisers so liberally, but every area without a CA is a gift to Ed and takes a threat off his shoulders -- so I'll risk the surface attrition and patrol all over.  I'd love to patrol some of these areas with a BB -- but that would make the IJN more likely to hit the Mandate in force.  The IJN uses all of his LBA in Indonesia.  I'd have attacked it with 4 or fewer LBA, so Ed's picked the right amount there.  Fortunately, it means the rest of the ocean is less defended.

The IJN does ultimately go all-out for the U.S. Mandate -- that is, with enough force that responding would take everything I've got (and probably result in attrition I couldn't live with even if I won).  Again, Ed picks the right amount of force.  The IJN also scatter CV with their flags -- in the hopes of scoring CV attrition using the flag defense.  The Marianas warrants a few extra surface ships too -- since my patrol is larger.

The big temptation for the USN in this situation is to go for too many areas -- and get stomped in some and suffer major attrition in others.  I decide to go for the boarder areas -- South Pacific, Marshalls, and the Hawaiian Islands.  The benefits:  1) The IJN may wish to shoot at the patrollers to keep lanes open to the US Mandate and raise the PoC score -- thereby reducing CV attrition (which is my big edge so far).  2) The Block.  If the USN gets flags in all three, the IJN fleet won't be able to back up the conversion threat next turn.  3) CV and surface attrition.

The main reason I use a CV in SPO is so that there'll be a CV threat to the Hawaiians and Central Pacific next turn.  That it can sink a CA and score a flag is a bonus.

The I-Boat joins the action in the Hawaiians -- where the PoC swing is highest!

The first action is daylight everywhere.  I agreed to day in the US mandate, Marshalls, and Hawaiians -- since I want his CV to face the tough choice (which the BB would choose the patrollers for certain)!  I'm hoping at least one of the 3-bangers will not sink the American CV.  I figure Ed asked for day in the Mandate in order to trim my LBA force -- and make the conversion threat next turn a real possibility.

In the Marianas, I'd have like a night to open the Japanese Islands to raiding next turn.  It doesn't happen.  I lose one CA and the other disables to Australia.  It's day followed by night in Indonesia -- Devonshire and Cornwall are sunk.  The disabled return to Ceylon along with the retreating British.  The IJN turkey shoot goes well for Ed.  I don't mind -- as long as the British CVL threat remains!  I just wish I could get 5 IJN LBA to shoot at the British every turn!

In the U.S. Mandate, the IJN CV shoot down one LBA and put 3 damage on the other.  The LBA do their job, however, and sink the NLF to save New Hebrides.  The crippled LBA retreats!  That should save Samoa -- unless Ed wants to challenge 9 LBA next turn (not, of course, that I plan to use all 9 LBA in the Mandate unless Ed comes on with a big patrol)!  The kill (rather than a disable) also helps Guadalcanal hold out next turn (as the lone forward base for the Allies)!

In the South Pacific, the first round sees just one damage on Nachi during the day.

In the Marshalls, the Soryu sinks Yorktown before being sunk in return.  However, the attack on Mutsu produces nothing.  The next round is a night action -- just when the flag was within reach!

In the Hawaiians, the Hiyo misses.  In return, both Hiyo and Haruna are sunk.  The I-Boat whiffs on the patroller to give the USN a very important flag (for PoC reasons only alas -- since there'll be no way to patrol it again next turn).

Tokyo News Flash: Admiral Yamamoto has announced that Captain Yamaguchi has been appointed commander of the IB fleet replacing the former commander who has been transferred to other duties in Manchuria with the Army.

USN Remaining Combat Comments: Nagato sinks Pensacola to prevent the line of flags in Marshalls.  Sigh.  So close...

And yet...

NOT!

In the SPO, a second day sees Nachi sunk.  Nagato pays for the privilege of denying the USN a key flag and PoC with its life.  At least that helps the surface attrition.  Although neither side ends up with a spectacular edge in attrition this turn -- but a slight USN edge is better than none.

The Japanese resume their upward PoC climb.  It'll be a challenge to keep the total low enough to come back.  Even with Victorious and 9 LBA, my threat potential is smaller than last turn.

IJN Report:  This turn is difficult because all of my main POC areas are open to raid and John has FIVE shiny USN CVs to raid with.  At least 4 (and more likely 5) of my 5 LBA are needed for Indo defense.  If my fleet goes after the SPO, then the Marshalls and/or HI will be easy for John to defeat.  One or both will then be vulnerable to marine invasion next turn.  In addition I will have major problems in trying to have an intact perimeter on T5 to protect against all those T6 carriers.  John might also decide to use a suicide CV to take out my only marine trying to take Guadalcanal.  (He has the flag.)  I don’t like this “standard” defense.

So I decide on a different plan.  I can easily control the USM this turn.  That has several significant benefits for next turn.  The Marshalls/HI can not be invaded next turn. Any raiders John sends into my POC areas this turn will return to Australia.  They can’t reach the HI next turn which will make the defense of the HI that much easier.  Any raiders that he keeps in SPO to be able to reach the HI next turn won’t be taking away POC I hope for this turn.  So I should be able to defend the HI relatively cheaply next turn.  That means the bulk of my forces will only have to defend 3 areas (Indo, Marianas & Marshalls) instead of 4 areas.  (I don’t envision fighting for the SPO on T5 – and don’t think I will need to.)

Furthermore since the Turn 5 marine will be trapped in the USM, it will only be useful for one turn in the game – either 6 or 7 as US marines are virtually worthless on T8.  Vicky never gets to make her annoying presence felt.  It also is a potential KO in five threat.  (My one marine would be very vulnerable to a suicide mission, but still the threat is there.) 

So I patrol it rather heavily and sprinkle patrollers around the other areas.  Five LBA go to “guarantee” my holding Indo.  Four might keep John out, but it is too risky for my taste vs the 5 US CVs & 2 Brit CVLs he could send there.  (I don’t want to count on the Wasp & Hermes failing SRs.)  I also want to be sure I have 6 next turn.

John does a good job of applying pressure on me by patrolling all my areas that he can reach.  His only 2 LBA defend the USM.  That will give him the area if I don’t raid and go after my marine if I do.

Most of my raiders go to the USM per plan.  Carriers raid where I have the flag in a standard flag defense.  A sizeable raiding force goes to the Marianas where most of his BBs will have to pass SRs to reach.  If he goes there, it will reduce resources for any other areas he might want to raid.

John doesn’t fall for my Marianas trap & responds with an excellent move that risks some CVs but not many.  He has to clear the Marshalls or else I get the HI next turn for 1 CA.  He also correctly keeps fast CAs in the SPO to be able to exploit the certain hole in the Marshalls.  His carrier there with the flag will probably let him control the SPO again and also be a raiding threat.  And he has a blocking threat against me in case I want to go for the USM next turn.

Its daylight everywhere, including the USM (which I asked for).  I already concluded my KO chances were poor & therefore probably wouldn’t invade N Hebredes during N anyway.  I hope to have Yokosuka disabled or missed so it will be available next turn.  Besides if they shoot at my marine, they aren’t shooting at my CVs!

I sink 2 CAs before the Brits retreat, sink & disable one each CAs in the Marianas, sink the Yorktown in the Marshalls and 1 LBA in the USM.  But disaster strikes me in the HI as Hiyo whiffs on the patrolling CA.  Argh!  I need John to miss one of my ships or have the I Boat come through or he will pick up 3 POC there!

John doesn’t miss in the HI though as both ships are sunk.  Soryu is sunk in the marshals and Yokosuka in the USM.  But luckily he whiffs on Mutsu in the Marshalls and only puts 1 damage on my SPO CA.  Fortunately I get my N in the Marshalls and that patroller is sunk before Mutsu also goes under.  Saratoga finishes off my SPO CA.  The I Boat also whiffs on the HI patroller.  Ugh, all 4 of my bonus shots on the CA whiffed.  That hurts!

I gain 5 POC to push it to 20 which is a help.  But I was hoping (expecting) to decontrol the HI and hit 22 POC assuming he controlled the Marshalls.  That would have made my life noticeably easier.

Sunk

554 Nagato
436 Haruna
1+27 Nachi
128+3 Soryu
124+3 Hiyo
033 Yokosuka
444 Warspite. [Removal]
444 Valiant. [Removal]
443 Resolution. [Removal]
443 Revenge. [Removal]
117 Astoria
117 Pensacola
117. Cornwall
117. Devonshire
027+4 Yorktown
24* 13th AF

No bases or ports convert.

IJN gains 5 PoC to increase the over-all IJN lead to 20 PoC.

Turn 5

USN Comments: Depending on whether Ed attacks the Mandate or SPO, I'll follow with most of my LBA.  My main objective is to secure a hole in the perimeter so that my turn six reinforcements can threaten as much as possible.

Interestingly, Ed uses his fleet (almost all of the surface units) to patrol the Marshalls and Hawaiians.  That's not what I expected.  That suggests Ed will use LBA in Indonesia, Marshalls, and the South Pacific -- backed up with all those CV in "enhanced" flag defenses.  I patrol very lightly -- with plans to use all but one LBA in the South Pacific.  The stuff in the Mandate is trapped, so it all patrols -- fairly confident that the IJN won't raid there since Ed hasn't bothered to patrol.

Ed surprises me again by placing no LBA in the South Pacific -- and going with the deluxe flag defense in Marianas and Indonesia.  As a result, I can put an LBA back on defense in Indian Ocean, U.S. Mandate, and Bay of Bengal that I hadn't expected.  I can also push my Marines into South Pacific (on the off-chance they can take Lae).

Ed's raiders are what I expected -- making the Marshalls and Hawaiians unpalatable.  In fact, so is the Marianas.  The only obvious move is denying the PoC in CPO.  I could just push my ships into SPO to move them forward and use one CV to knock out an NLF in Indo.  However, I elect to push into Indonesia -- not only to make sure I take Lae but to weaken IJN defenses for next turn.  And, if per chance, a night action (or day/night) comes in the first round, I'll get excellent attrition and have a good chance to win the area to boot.

In fact, the first round in Indonesia turns out to be pure night -- Ed's worst nightmare scenario.  The Akagi's gunnery misses -- interestingly, Ed didn't shoot at the patroller -- preferring the wounded North Carolina.  The I-Boat comes through, however -- sinking Enterprise.  Allied intelligence makes it a priority to learn who the new I-Boat captain is and eliminate him.  The CA in the Marianas gets away disabled to Australia!  That'll help surface attrition!  Unfortunately, Atago sinks Chester in CPO to make up for it!

In return, Kure, Sasebo, and Zuiho are sunk.  However, five bonus shots and four regular shots can only disabled Akagi -- without a scratch!  But that means my major objective for the turn -- taking Lae is achieved.  Even better, I'll have a spare Marine on an advance base!  In fact, with a spare Marine on Lae -- and only one IJN NLF available next turn -- Lae will be a secure airbase!  That means that, without CV, Indonesia will be mine next turn.  That's huge!

In CPO, Atago is also sunk -- making surface and CV attrition equal so far this turn.  Since I'll have good raiding position next turn and expect more hits during the coming round, I'll stick it out for another round in Indo.

My 15 shots in Indo cause 1 damage.  Saratoga is sunk while Wasp is disabled.  That's enough for the Allies to throw in the towel.  In this case, sticking around really helped the IJN position...  Thankfully, the Lae position is still worth the losses incurred.

IJN Report:  John’s good play of keeping a sizeable force in the SPO (1 CV, 2 slow BBs & 6 CAs) spoils my anticipated T5 defense.  I had hoped a couple CAs & maybe a CV could defend the HI.  That would have let me use the bulk of my fleet including the 2 returning marines to protect Indo and Lae.  My 6 LBA backed up with a CVL would have defended Marianas/Marshalls.  But with John’s raiding threat based at Guadalcanal, I don’t have enough of a fleet to pull that off.  Rats!

So it’s to Plan B.  I still need the fleet to defend 2 areas and the LBA 2 areas.  So now it’s the HI and either the Marianas or Marshalls for the fleet.  I choose the Marshalls.  All the BBs in Australia will have to SR to the Marshalls & the 2 Guad based BBs would have to SR to the HI.  I think that will work, although I’m happy to see one of his Guad BBs patrol the SPO.  (John worried about a marine invasion of Guad I think.)

John patrols pretty much as expected.  I debated the LBA mix for Indo/Marianas & finally decided on 3 each backed up by carriers.  Both my marines go to Indo hoping for D to be able to avoid the Brit surface ships.

John decides to raid Indo and the easy CPO.  In the Marianas, my 10 air strikes can only disable the Vincennes.  Sigh.  We trade CAs in the CPO.

I want D in Indonesia and hope that my LBA, carriers & I Boat can take out a bunch of his carriers on the first pass.  The odds are all in my favor, but ARGH#*&%.  It’s pure N!  I don’t like this!  The Akagi’s shot does nothing.  As expected, the massed Allied fire sinks the 2 marines and Zuiho.  But Lady Luck, after deserting me on the D/N roll suddenly does an about face.  Miraculously, the Akagi is only disabled!  The I Boat sinks the Enterprise.  On the 2^nd round D action, I sink the Saratoga, disable the Wasp and whiff on the Lexington.  Pretty average, but John’s 15 return shots manage a grand total of 1 damage point.  The Allied fleet decides that’s enough and retreats. 

Whew Indo saved and with it my perimeter, albeit without the SPO (and Lae has fallen).  But this is still a very playable game for the IJN.  The IJN gain 6 POC to go to 26.  With a bid of 1, the USN will have a tough road ahead.

Sunk

1+27 Atago
005+2 Zuiho
033 Sasebo
033 Kure
117 Chester
137+4 Saratoga
027+4 Enterprise
027 Victorious [Removal]
043 2nd Marines [invades Lae]

USN converts Lae by invasion.

IJN gains 6 PoC to increase the over-all IJN lead to 26 PoC.

Turn 6

USN Comments: Ed patrols the Hawaiian Islands so strongly that I elect to use ships to patrol on the Bay of Bengal, Indian Ocean, Marianas, and Marshalls.  In retrospect, I should have put fewer patrols in the last two and patrolled the Hawaiians with 2-3 CA.  This turn stands out as a lesson in my mind on the power of the Northeast corner.

I've played a lot of games.  This is the first were I can recall that the USN was a shoo-in to win both SPO and Indonesia.  However, despite that, Ed will move from 26 to 29 PoC unless I take something else from him!  Worse, if the only thing I take is the Marshalls, the IJN will still move up to 27!  With a bid of 1, I'll need to keep the total swing to 7 or less on turns 8 and 9.  Since I'll have no chance of patrolling or raiding NPO and Aleutians next turn, a swing of 3 is already guaranteed -- and I seriously doubt an IJN fleet of this size won't be able to pick up a swing of another six in the Japanese Islands next turn for the lock.  That means that I have to deny the IJN the Marianas or Hawaiians in addition to the Marshalls this turn!

Unfortunately, I don't figure this out until I've already put out all my pieces except the raiders -- which means I need to win two areas (since I need to be able to patrol from a base in the Marshalls next turn and move another Marine forward to take Midway in order to be able to get the Aleutians and North Pacific on the last turn).  Big mistake!  I assumed that, since I had Indo and SPO, that the PoC situation would be OK.  Wong!

So I go for against the odds battles in both Marshalls and Marianas.  The IJN responds with the I-Boat in the Marshalls.  The I-Boat does it's job -- sending Essex away before she can fire a shot.  In the Marianas, the first round sees a day followed by night.  That lets the USN concentrate on the LBA -- but all they can do is shoot down one and damage another.  Meanwhile, the IJN cripples one four-banger and disables two more along with a two-banger.  At night, the IJN sinks one bonus baby, disables another, and disables one with 2 damage.  In return, the NLF is sunk.  Mustu is sent away with 1 damage.  Musashi is sent away with 7 damage.  Yamato remains with 2 damage.  The next round is also a night -- with Yamato disablig Houston.  The third round is daylight -- which sees one more LBA shot down.  Wasp is crippled and Monterey sunk.  The fourth round sees another LBA shot down while Cowpens is sunk.  The fifth round is night and see Salt Lake City sunk while Yamato is disabled.  The sixth round sees another LBA shot down -- just one left!  However, Belleau Wood is crippled.

The IJN win both battles and go to 29.  The only way the USN can theoretically keep any chance to win is to control every single area they can get ships to next turn -- including the Japanese Islands.

With 11 carriers and 2 LBA and a surface lap, there's no way the IJN will lose the Japanese Islands next turn to a force with just 5 CV (assuming good speed rolls).  As a result, it's time to offer up out surrender.

Ed played a masterful game.  His conservative PoC hoarding approach was just the solution he needed.  If someone were to tell me that I'd have 5 USN CV on Turn 4 and still lose, I'd have thought they were nuts.  Ed shows just how to do it!

IJN Report:  Five USN BBs based in Australia/Guadalcanal and would have to SR to get to the HI. So the fleet will defend the HI.  This will have the added advantage of probably keeping any USN marines out of the area.  As I don’t need the POC & don’t want to fight Allied LBA, I will concede Indo to them.

John sends several patrollers to the Marianas & Marshalls.  My LBA go there as well.  My lone marine goes to the Marianas to try to save the Philippines from a likely Allied invasion attempt.

I don’t want John controlling both the Marshalls & Marianas this turn.  That would give him too big an opportunity to flip Truk next turn for excellent forward basing.  So my 3 biggest BBs raid the Marianas to help prevent his control of that area.  (Most of his BBs will have to SR to get to there which should limit adverse surface attrition.)  That leaves me enough surface in the HI to be sure he can’t get a wrap on my carriers.  And with 5 of his BBs needing SRs, I am likely to have a several ship surface lap on John.

John can’t afford to let me have the Marianas and Marshalls even if he were to decontrol the HI.  So he will be forced to fight in the Marshalls (the least defended area) and either the HI or Marianas.  Both areas are likely to unpleasant for him.

John elects to fight my LBA.  I rate my chances to win each area as about 50/50.  Even losing both areas & the Philippines is OK if I can get some CV attrition.  I get my N in the Marshalls.  And the I Boat comes through again disabling Essex.  This shows the power of the right motivational speech.  (Failure leads to his joining his predecessor in Manchuria leading Army banzai charges!) During the next D round, the Independence is disabled and her return fire misses.  So we own the Marshalls!

I lose the D/N roll in the Marianas as it’s D/N.  It’s 5 rounds of D & N fighting in the Marianas.  Only 2 USN 0-2-7s were sunk but several others were banged up.  But in the end, disables work very well too as my last LBA maintains control for the IJN.

The IJN pick up 3 more POC to go to 29.  At this point the Allies surrender their hopeless position.  The CPO/NPO are guaranteed for me next turn providing I remember to patrol 2 CAs each so as to be able to fend off the F Boat.  That means John would have to control the JI against the rest of my fleet & 2 LBA where I would be superior in the air & surface.

I always enjoy playing John.  He’s an excellent player, he plays fast and the banter back & forth is fun.  He played a strong game here, but the lack of attrition on my CVs in the HI on T3 really hurt him.

Sunk

34* 22 AirFlot
34* 23 AirFlot
34* 24 AirFlot
34* 26 AirFlot
033 Yokosuka
10* I-Boat [Removal]
5+65 Alabama
443 Ramillies. [Removal]
117 Salt Lake City
027+2 Cowpens
027+2 Monterey
0272 Formidable. [Removal]
043 1st Marines [invades the Philippines]

USN converts The Philippines by invasion.

IJN gains 3 PoC to increase the over-all IJN lead to 29 PoC, drawing a USN surrender!

Congratulations, Ed!

USN Endgame Comments: After the game was over, I asked Ed what he'd have done differently in my place.  I trust Ed's judgment and thought I'd take this opportunity to learn.  Ed gave me permission to print his response!  That way any reader can also learn!  Thanks, Ed!

IJN Endgame Comments: I felt you played an excellent game.  I especially liked your T2, T4 & T5 play & agree with conservative T1 play.  Obviously the lack of CV attrition on T3 hurt.  But that is going to happen in some games.  So you need to find a way to win anyway.

There was only one place where I would have done something noticeably different.  I think I would have run after the first T3 HI round when 3 LBA went down.  I remember being happy & surprised that you stayed.  When I took out all your LBA, it left you with no reasonable defense to my T4 USM move.  And to me that was the key to my win.  That move had all the advantages I mentioned in my report - the main one being the ease with which I could hold the HI/Marshalls on T5.

You would have had 5 LBA which I would have put in the USM if a lot of IJN patrollers showed up there.  The IJN could probably still win that fight, but it would have left virtually no carriers for flag defense.  You could go after my marine as you did and then run or stay depending on the game situation.

I’m not sure what I would have done vs 5 LBA.  I might have felt I had to save my AI marines to have 3 for the KO in 5 attempt.  Or gone for the standard defense … I’m not sure.

Now I agree you give up possible CV attrition & probably lose all 3 BBs in Pearl.  (I might have brought them out as raiders.  But it’s hard to argue with leaving them in port too.)  And you are hurting on the surface.  (I also agree that the IJN is very dangerous when they have almost all their CVs.)  But I may have perceived a bigger danger in losing your LBA than you did.  I’ve used that USM T4 control trick before and found it quite effective in the right circumstances.

There is one other approach I would have considered.  That is to leave the marines & BBs in Pearl on T3.  Stay for 1 round to see how it goes.  The IJN then probably doesn’t have enough air to get both the marines & BBs.  The IJN has a tough time when the USN has a lot of CVs and marines are drinking ale in the Australian pubs on T4.

I usually put LBA in the HI to ease the task of controlling the HI but also to lure the marines out.  I have a 58% chance to bring my surface guns on them.  If I think I can afford it, I sometimes don’t shoot at them even in pure D (and considered that in our game).  One lands & is gone till T5.  Then I only have one to deal with.  Plus, the USN is obligated to stay another round where I can get more LBA attrition.  As you’ve seen I love having the USN without many LBA on T4.  It offers the IJN a number of options.  (If the USN runs after the first round, then the marines are out on the open sea where they are easy targets.) 

Obviously as you know there aren’t any perfect answers.  But these are my thoughts.

I will mention one last tool that I use – only because from a couple comments you seemed a little bit surprised with the POC problem.  (If I’m wrong, then never mind)  I try to keep a very good handle on the end-of-game POC situation. 

I made myself an Excel spreadsheet that makes projecting end-of-game POC easy.  Most email games I keep it running so I have a decent idea of where the game will end up.  It’s nothing that can’t be done with paper & pencil, but it is a lot faster & easier.  You might be surprised to know that based on that I thought I still had a pretty decent chance to win the game even if I had lost Indo on T5.  (after Akagi escaped & I had sunk 2 of your CVs)

USN Endgame Comments: I figure I'm the winner of any game where I learn something -- whether I won or lost the game itself. Sometimes what I did wrong is obvious to me. Sometimes not. In the latter, I like to ask -- especially when its against a player whose judgment I trust (as opposed to someone who will simply credit the dice).

In this case, I learned not to throw away my turn 3 USN LBA. But, even more importantly, I learned the error of my PoC-counting ways. I've always had a very good grasp of the swing needed -- but have never bothered to start calculating it before Turn 6 and usually not until Turn 7. It's a bad habit that came from taking it as a given that the IJN would hit 29. That's probably not even appropriate in non-NT1 games (given the advantage in holding the IJN lower) -- but a disaster in an NT1 game where the USN MUST hold the PoC down (and should be wary of PoC snatching raiders from the start)!

Thanks for the helpful comments, Ed!