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Tim: Score is +21 IJN at the end of 7 in the Tow/Gorard Full Applebaum scenario QR match.
Tim: Stephen conceded during turn 8, when it was
clear Japan would not control the Japanese Islands.
Estimated POC at the end of turn 8 is +5 IJN with a 2.5 US bid, there was little
chance the Japanese could win on turn 9.
This was our first AREA game.
Mircea: I surrender as Japan to Eric Taylor's Allies in the Scenario Quick Round, after less than 2 complete and ill-fated turns.
My thoughts on the Great Co-Prosperity Sphere scenario:
I had played a similar situation but: Japan had a much better force ratio in carriers and guns than in the scenario, balanced by a not completely tight perimeter and usual 4.5 PoC bid against. The strategy in this scenario is quite 'channeled' by the logic of the situation. For a tournament I'd choose something more open.
Starting Turn 6: Japan is guaranteed to control Japan, Marianas and Aleutians, and has no chance anywhere the new US carriers can arrive: SPO, Marshalls, CPO, NPO.
This leaves Indonesia - I patrolled with 6 LBA and 1 Marine, on the idea that if they fight and some go down, they will fight again on the final Turn 8 ! No ships (combined US+British can overwhelm the Japanese fleet at night)
Another key US decision is what to do with the 3 Marines. I thought they could have gotten Dutch Harbor (as they did), Lae certainly from SPO, and keep one to land deeper on Turn 7.
I was surprised that the US came to fight in Indonesia with the 'old' force of 4 US CV and 2 British CVL (42:69 by my scoring) but with 2 Marines too, absorbing much first round fire OR ELSE Lae or Philippines falling. I fired with 2 LBA on each, and the islands were saved. But I think it was quite rare for Japan to lose all 6 LBA to only one CV sunk (and that, by the sub!).
-7 PoC, 22 total.
Round 7: Japan put every ship in Japan itself (some carriers kept as raiders to pick a weaker patrolled zone around, but US patrolled strong enough). So a big battle in Japan, with:
IJN: 5CV,4CVL,10BB,14CA
US: 9CV,8CVL,11BB(-4 missing speed rolls),10CA,sub my points: air 51:120, surface 189:134.
I was lucky to get a Night first battle round, but with surprisingly weak Japanese and deadly US fire, and a Day second round, it was enough that the US striking planes saw only lifeboats with white flags, and the last ship scuttling itself...
Congratulations to Eric Taylor for his daring play ! Wish him good luck in further games too !
Eric: I found Mircea's play on the first turn
confusing as he kept his entire fleet behind the barrier. If his fleet had gone
to Indonesia I don't think I could have attacked there, it certainly would have
been costly for me to try. As it was I got lucky and downed his lba with
minimal damage. He could have stopped me patrolling by attacking the CV's on
turn one but went after the marines instead.
I think he would have been better to try and spread his fleet out a bit on turn
7 as it was an easy decision to go all into the JI, even if he got night as he
did the US forces were strong enough to take him out, even if we had more equal
dice and it was more of an attrition.
I do agree that it is difficult for the IJN in this scenario with the US as
strong as it is.
GM: In this game, the Shoho spent Turn 4 on the board -- even though the description of the scenario has her listed as sunk.
Joe (IJN): At the end of turn 4, My IJN have a total of 23 POC.
Joe (IJN): At the end of turn 6 of our historical scenario, my IJN have 23 POC.
Lee (USN): I should have resigned after the turn 5 dice disaster with 2 CV+, victorious, and 2 LBA failing to kill your 2 LBA.
Without the hole in the perimeter the odds were to low.
With the failure in Indonesia I don't see how to win. I will be forced to waste to many units to guard against a fatal rear area raid. IMHO the Indonesia failure was due to turn 5 and not enough ships in range...
Ed (IJN): Hmmm... something tells me it wasn't pure chance that you and I got paired up for this... :-)
John (USN/GM): In this case, the pairing was done quite simply -- everyone who selected a scenario was paired with the next person who signed up who didn't have a preference. Ed was the last one with a preference to sign up. He plays me because I wasn't going to play this round until it turned out we had an odd number of players.
IJN: Why did I pick this scenario? Good question. Since my return to playing this game two years ago, I have yet to find myself in a position as the Japanese player that afforded the 'go after the Brits early' opportunity. On turn 1, if the Japanese had a poor showing at Pearl (3 or 4 BBs escaping) and none of the WXYZ rolls resulted in CVs in Australia, then I would seriously consider an all-out onslaught on the Brits and Australia on turn 2. That is, the extra USN BBs make the 2-area attack on Hawaii and the Mandate distasteful while zero CVs in Australia make for easy hunting in Indo, IO and BoB.
With no opportunity to play out this scenario in tournament play, I chose this scenario as an extension of that strategy. I imagine the Japanese flagging BoB, IO and CS on turn 2. I then see Ceylon lost on turn 3 as the USN concentrates on saving Australia. Turn 4 could also have had IJN flags surrounding the Aussies, with another USN save in the CS on turn 5. Now it's time to play out the end-game...
Turn 6 - IJN Flexible basing
Not knowing where any of John's ships will be basing (except for the turn 6 reinforcements at Pearl) makes for too many variables to attempt any strategy at this point. I'll base my fleet in the Philippines for maximum mobility. Same with the marines - one down south and one up north allow me the flexibility to reinforce Port Moresby or attack Dutch Harbor or any base in between. The key is reacting to where John bases his flexible marine unit.
Turn 6 - IJN Patrols
John based his marine in Maloelap. So John may be after Saipan this turn. I will have to send one of my marines to Indo to safeguard Lae and the Philippines. If John does go after Saipan; he'll gain a base for placing LBA in the Marianas; but he already has bases at Midway and Dutch Harbor that can be used to base Japanese Islands bound patrollers. So I won't bother sending a suicide CV after it.
Compared to my usual games, I have an enormous fleet. The fleet should be able to hold one area; and I should be able to hold another with my LBA. If any of my LBA are shot sown this turn, they'll be back for turn 8, so John may think twice about attacking them with his CVs.
If I can only hold 2 areas, in addition to the 2 free ones, then one will have to be Japan (6 POC). The other will need to be Marianas, SPO, or IO. With no allied bases for LBA, the Marianas may be the easiest to hold. Going after SPO could result in me invading Guadalcanal. But in the end, I think IO is the best place to go - for many reasons:
1) John has no marine in a position to invade Port Moresby, so I can safely use my LBA there. 2) John stacked all but one of his flexible basing CVs in Pearl. He can put lots of pressure on Japan, but he can't do much against IO. 3) Although IO itself is worth one less POC than Marianas or SPO, my flag there will protect BoB on turn 7. That's big!
So now that I have a semblance of a plan, I have to do the math to see if I can afford to be this conservative, or if I need to be more aggressive.
Turn 6) If I hold BoB, Indo, Japan and IO and give John the rest, then he'll pick up 2 POC (reducing my total to 25). Turn 7) With BoB protected and John's turn 7 reinforcements unable to reach Indo, then I should easily hold Indo. If John took everything else, then he'd pick up 10 POC (reducing my total to 15). Turn 8) I need to win by 3 to cover the bid. So I can only afford to give John a maximum of more 12 POC. In other words, my magic number is 5. hmmm... If I play conservatively, I need to steal 5 POC somewhere during these 3 turns. That could be tricky. So let's take a closer look at turn 8... with my flag in Indo, John may have to split his fleet in order to reach both BoB and Japan (only Guadalcanal could reach both locations with raiders). So I could probably get 3 POC for patrolling BoB or denying USN patrols in Japan on turn 8. Which would leave only 2 POC to steal on turns 6 and 7. Sounds doable.
I'll patrol Japan heavily. I'll leave enough raiders to make serious POC stealing threats. If John patrols heavily as well, and uses his LBA to defend USM and CS, then I may have enough force to flag an additional area.
Turn 6 – LBA
John didn't put any patrollers in the Marianas. So that's one POC stolen without rolling any dice, nice.
I'll use my LBA to secure IO. This way, I don't tip my hand too much with my patrollers. This works well, as John needs to use two of his LBA to patrol Hawaii and USM.
Turn 6 – Marines
Going after DH or Gaud makes no sense. I'll need my marines on turn 7 to protect Lae and Philippines from the coming onslaught.
Turn 6 – Raiders
I need enough ships in Japan to make John not want to risk a night action (with possible failed speed rolls for his BBs in Pearl). But I still want to steal POC. Especially in SPO, where a USN flag on Turn 7 would hurt my suicide CV's chances against his marines. The I-Boat will look to steal a POC in NPO. Raiding a carrier to CS could easily bring 2 huge POC.
Turn 6 – Combat
Shokaku is unsuccessful in disabling (or sinking) New Mexico (scoring 1 hit for 3 damage). But all my other POC stealing raids are successful. This however is offset by John's POC stealing move into Japanese Islands. Although 3 of John's big BBs fail their speed rolls, this potential IJN advantage becomes meaningless after 3 straight day actions. My "ace in the hole" LBA, that was supposed to survive the first round air strikes and provide a tough nut to crack for future day rounds is quickly and easily dispatched by a lone CVL on round 1. But worse were my damage rolls. I got my hits, but rolled 1's for damage almost all the time. There'll be 3 big CVs and 4 CAs I'll have to face on turns 7 and 8 that could have (mostly should have) been sunk. John easily wins the battle of attrition. But this game is not a battle of attrition; it's a battle for POC…
Turn 6 – Aftermath
John picks up only 1 POC this turn. This is good. Even better is the basing. By being aggressive and going after Japan, John has to base the majority of his ships on the outside edge of the board. He has only a 117 cruiser (at Midway) and a 453 battleship (at Dutch Harbor) capable of patrolling JI on turn 7. That gives me an extremely good chance to steal 3 POC next turn.
Turn 7
Turn 7 - Patrols
The plan is simple.- Raid some BBs and CVs into Japan to eliminate John's patrollers regardless of the day/night roll. Use the rest to patrol Indo (minus 2 CAs to make BoB sub-proof).- Hopefully my 5 LBA can stand against his CVs in Samao/Gaud/Australia.- John has more of them than I had originally planned for due to my poor damage rolls last turn.- If I can flag Indo and decontrol Japan, then John will only gain 7 POC this turn.- John would then have to get all 17 POC on turn 8 to tie.- I'll keep a few CAs as raiders this turn just in case John gives me a POC stealing opportunity.
Turn 7 - Marines
If I win the upcoming battle in Indo, then all I need is one more POC to win.- I'll have very little force left after the battle with which to steal a POC on turn 8.- So using the marines to steal a POC now may be a good idea.- But if I lose the battle in Indo, I may need to save Lae and/or Okinawa in order to have a chance on turn 8.- But, it's still not a good one.- The outcome of the game seems to revolve around this upcoming Indo battle.- I wonder if I move my marines to Indo (to protect Lae) would draw enemy fire and thereby improve my chances in the battle?
Turn 7 - Raiders
I expect to have most of my fleet in Indonesia get destroyed.- So I expect to have very little left on turn 8 with which to try and steal a POC (assuming I win the battle in Indo and decontrol Japan).- With Allied flags and bases all over the map, John could easily cover the board for a tie.- The only move I have left that can help my turn 8 position is to disable his marine in Japan. Originally, I was planning on putting Shokaku and Shoho in Japan for 6 bonus shots at the patrolling CA. But since I may want to attacking the marine, I'll put in Hiyo instead of Shoho; thereby giving the realistic option of going after the marine too.- I'll wait until after the day/night rolls to decide.
Turn 7 - Combat
John agrees to day in Japan - intentionally putting his marine at risk as bait to help protect his lone patroller. If I lose most of my LBA defending Indonesia, a USN base at Okinawa would allow John to base the majority of his fleet in Australia for unbeatable pressure on BoB and Indo on turn 8.- So I decide to attack the marine in Japan as a hedge against disaster in Indo.- End result, both the patroller and the marine are disabled.- The battle in Indonesia also goes well as I lose only one LBA.
Turn 8
Turn 8 - Patrols
All I need is to steal one POC for the win.- I'll put out patrolling CAs in CPO and IO to maximize my options. Everything else is on raid to see what John does.
Turn 8 - LBA and Raiders
John only puts two CAs in the Bay of Bengal - making it clearly the weakest point.
Turn 8 - Combat
A first round day action puts both patrolling CAs on the bottom.- Game over.- John will be much tougher to beat in our upcoming rematch-
Then Ed and I decided to try it again...
Turn 6 - 2nd Try
Turn 7 - 2nd Try
