* * Ladder Board #1 - Round 30 * *
Ed Menzel (IJN; Bid 4.5) vs. Andy Gardner (USN)

The I-Boat Raid and CPO Withdrawal adjustments are in play.

Turn 1
Turn 2
Turn 3
Turn 4
Turn 5
Turn 6
Turn 7
Turn 8

Turn 1

USN Report: A sad day for US naval forces as the IJN sink all 10 ships at Pearl. Only the 7th escaped the carnage. In Indo, the 5th and Repulse were destroyed.  To add to my woes was the fact that all four uncertain groups will be based out of  Pearl on T2. About the worst start that the USN can have to start a game.  Humm...playing Ed...certainly one of the elite, and most aggressive players that we have...I could be in a lot of trouble!  POC at normal 7.

IJN Comments:  Andy has recapped the results.  This is a very nice start for the IJN.  But there are many miles to go and Andy is a top-notch player.  So I expect a tough game still.

Turn 2

USN Report: After the devastating raids from Ed's IJN, I needed to tread lightly. To this end, I decide to go with 3xLBA in the USM. I also limit my patrollers but decide to do something different. I would remove them from the Marshalls and place them in the CS. I had hoped that I would be able to support them during my raiders phase and score the POC. However, in hindsight, this may have just drawn a big bulls-eye on them as Ed came at the CS big time! I guess I should have realized that Ed would have some "extra" ships and carriers to toss their way. Live and learn.
 
My raider move was very difficult. In the end, I finally sent this to Ed: "My thinking came down to taking 2 shots of beating the flags in AI and CPO. If not, the IJN chances are about 50% on each of the 4 CV's. That should be 2xCV sunk along with the suicide. I should be able to still have a viable game if I have 2xCV left. If I can get 3 IJN carriers (I should get this no matter what the pref rolls do in these areas) and Yoko, I should be in decent shape for the rest of the game. Still, I hate the suicide CV...but your move was too good and didn't leave any good options for a long term USN comeback, IMO. Good Luck! 
 
Your I-Boat may not get a CV target if you pick the wrong area...a very minor bonus."
 
Perhaps, in hindsight, placing a 3rd CV in the AI would have been a better move versus the suicide CV. But it would not be nearly as exciting! After playing so many of these games, it is good to mix things up every once in a while!
 
Ed then placed his I-Boat into the CPO and we both waited for the pref rolls to come in...I win a pure night in the CPO but Ed wins the Hawaii roll. Oh no! I would have preferred it the other way around...this could be a very quick game! Ed sends this message: I was clairvoyant enough to pick the CPO for the IB!  And a bigger bonus, it is N in the HI.  A nice role for me.
 
I'll need a break from Ed's fire, on my CV's, to stay in this thing. The Yorktown is sunk under the combined IJN surface forces in Hawaii. In the AI, his carriers disable Lex and cripple Hornet. At least I have not lost a second CV! His LBA in Indo shoot well, disabling Warspite while hitting RS(4d) and Rev(2d). Even the carrier, Hiryu, does well during the CPO night action, sinking Houston! During the day portion of the CS battle, the concentrated fire of Shokaku/Soryu sink the Australia. Outside of the AI, Ed's shooting is deadly!
 
But sinking USN CV's is job #1 and that is where I got a break.
 
It was now my turn to shoot. AI is a tough choice. I would love to stop the NLF but can't afford to have Ed sink the crippled Hornet. Had both my CV's been disabled, I would have gone after the NLF. So I would need to target both Junyo and Shoho. Sure would have been nice to have that 3rd CV now! On to the results!
 
My boys must have heard the news of the Yorktown as they were on a mission to avenge their comrades...4 IJN flattops, Junyo, Shoho, Hiryu and Ryujo, are sunk! Wow!
 
However, the war room falls silent as a report comes in that an IJN submarine has slipped through the destroyer screen and hit the Enterprise in the waters around Midway. Time seems to stand still until the good news comes in that she is damaged (1d) but afloat. Whew!
 
After seeing this, I sent off this email to Ed. Remember how happy you were about the sub going to the CPO, instead of AI. Saved me a carrier. What a wacky game...
Ed's response...Aack!   I hadn’t thought about that
 
I am officially back in this game!
 
Overall, the turn was pretty intense for both sides. We both had a chance to severely hurt each other, but dodged each others attempt. It has been an interesting turn to say the least! I lost the surface attrition battle 3-1 but won the carrier attrition 4-1, something that I will gladly take! I did manage to save a couple of bases, especially Midway. However, Ed had a huge POC gain of 11 and has a good chance at flipping Pearl on T3. The flipping of Pearl may take every carrier that Ed has and that may leave some opportunities for me. To this end, I elect to base Saratoga and Lexington up in the north. Two BB's and 5xCA's will be available to screen them. Enterprise(1d) and 8xCA's will base out of Samoa. Who's winning? Got me! We probably each think that the other has the edge so the thing could be pretty even. As far as T3, Ed will probably concentrate on Pearl as a misstep there would be a disaster.

IJN Comments:  I’ll offer some comments on my deployment.  I used a typical patrol that lets me adapt to Andy’s patrol/LBA response.  Sometimes I attack 3 USM LBA, but decide not to here.  I have a nice start in the game & don’t think I need to take that risk.  Another key decision is 2 vs 3 Indo LBA.  I again take the risk-averse option & go with 3.

I challenge the CS (a chance for more surface attrition) & put 2 carriers each in the CPO/AI looking for CV attrition if he attacks there.  I’d really like another CVL in the SPO.  But I don’t want to take one from the CS, Marshalls or HI.  If he wants to save Lae, it will take 4 or 5 CVs.  That should limit him to one other area with his surface fleet.

IJN Post-Attack Comments:  A mixed result as I get Johnston Isl vs his suicide CV.  But that is the only CV I sink and I don’t get Midway/Attu while losing 4 carriers.  Ouch!  I did get some surface attrition & cripple a CV so that is at least some help.  Also my Marshalls/Marianas flags will block any northern based ships from the SPO/CS/USM & visa versa. 

As for 3 US CVs in the AI vs 2 plus a suicide CV, I  usually shy away from the suicide.  Primarily because there is a 69% chance of D or D/N in both the CPO & AI & a 40% chance of failure in the HI.  That is a lot of CV risk.  But it also is 60% chance of success in the HI which with 3 or 4 IJN carriers sunk may save Pearl on T3.  So I’m not sure which is best.  Here we both got some favorable results.

And I agree with Andy, it is a pretty even game at this point.

Turn 3

IJN before USN raiders comments:  With the CS/SPO flagged last turn, Guad will fall by isolation if I can flag them again this turn.  In addition, the crippled Hornet based in Australia which makes the CS even more attractive if she repairs.   If she doesn’t, she will be out of action for another turn.  So the CS gets extra patrollers.  The two USM patrollers will put added pressure on his Home areas since he has only 8 CAs & 1 operational CV that can defend.  Andy won’t be able to protect both the USM and the CS without bringing some LBA.  If he does, that will make the HI easier to win.  I patrol the other areas of the board that can give me POC except Indo.

Andy patrols about as I expected although I was also alert to the possibility of more of his LBA in the CS & possibly the SPO.  His JI patroller is threatening a 6 POC swing if I don’t divert some of my stuff – a good move I think.

My raider move aims to take advantage of his relatively weak surface fleet & the Marshalls north/south block.  I want to win the CS/SPO to convert Guad and have a carrier to raid the repairing Hornet/-1.  I also want Midway & I send enough surface to match Andy’s plus 2 carriers.  That makes 3 priority targets for Andy, but he only has 2 shooters in an air battle.  If he fights there, he will need all his ships in the north giving me the other areas (assuming I outduel his CA in the JI).

The rest of my raiders (not as much surface or air as I want) go to the HI.   I’m taking more of a risk of not converting Pearl than I would like.   But I think I need to be aggressive here.   That is a tribute to Andy’s skill as against a weaker player I might be more conservative.  Or maybe I’m just rationalizing my own inclination to be aggressive.  With 5 (not 6) Allied LBA defending Pearl, I have good odds of winning with a N or D/N first round action (58%) since I can take out his marines without diverting any of my air.  And I’m guessing I will win in a pure D action a little more than 1/2 of the time.

Andy would have a 3 ship surface wrap if he brings all his fleet to the HI defense.  (After his raiders, I noticed I had miscounted.  He would have had only a 1 ship wrap.)  In all likelihood that would save Pearl.  But that probably gives me all the other areas I patrolled.  I decided I would be willing to make that trade given the 83% probability of a D or D/N where I would expect to sink the CVs he would bring.  If it is a N action … well … not so good, but I’ll risk it.   (With only a 1 ship wrap, it wouldn’t have been so bad.  Still  I want D to go after his CVs and get my LBA firepower into the action.)  He also could just send a bare CV but that risks a pure N action (42%). 

In the JI, I’m risking a 6 POC swing if he goes there with a CV(s).  But a N action (42%) probably prevents his control.  In any case I’m willing to take that risk since any ships he sends out of the CPO/AI will have to base in his home areas.  That by itself will get some of the POC back in the subsequent turns.

What will Andy do?  He is very good at coming up with ways to exploit any weakness I have.  We’ll see!

IJN comments after Allied raiders:  Andy comes up with something I didn’t anticipate (of course) – the bare CV defense in the USM & 1 BB to take out my JI patroller with the rest defending (& likely able to hold) the HI.  The surface ship count is even.  It is not without risk especially in the USM as it could be a first round N action and/or the IB could take out his CV (50% probability).  But if it comes off, he would hold my POC down and probably hold the HI. 

IJN comments on the battles:  The flags hold in the HI & USM as we both get D action.  Andy also gets N in the CS so he can see other area results before deciding to fight or withdraw there.  I toy with the idea of going for his marines in the HI to fight it out.  But I think better of it and put all fire on his CVs sinking both.  His return fire sinks Zuikaku, cripples/disables Kaga and puts 2d on Akagi.  Andy sinks Mogami in the USM.  SLC & Yamato/-3 are both disabled in the JI.  The IB lines up on the Enterprise for the 2nd time in 2 turns – only putting 1d on her last turn.  This time she sinks Big E!!  Great news as we now have a real shot at winning the USM!

Andy of course takes Johnston Isl sending my LBA packing, but leaves the 2nd Marine at sea.  After some thought I elect to stay for N in the HI.  Andy expressed the opinion that it was an unnecessary risk as I already had an excellent game position.  But I felt the chance to use my 8 BBs to 4 and the bonus CA advantages were worth it.  I should win the attrition battle and any ships I disable won’t base in Australia or they may be raided by my CS carriers.  The less ships in Australia, the less that can raid through the Indo hole.  Also if it is D, I’m willing to give up the Akagi if I can take out his 2nd Mar.  I’d like to sink the marine but even a disable will probably force it to base somewhere other than Australia (where it could threaten Lae, Philippines or Guad).

Another reason for going for attrition in the HI is that I don’t know how the CS/USM battles will come out.  I am favored in both areas.  But I am not a lock for winning either battle.  If I got unlucky there and don’t win, Guad doesn’t fall, the Hornet/-1 is operational and I may not win the USM.)  So I stay to fight.

The dice are kind to me as I get my N action.  Neither one of us shoots all that well, as I sink 3 ships and he sinks 2 along with some disables for both of us.  But it does give me a surface edge.  Andy decides to fight in the CS where I put 3d on the RNZAF while he whiffs.  Andy then runs away.  More bad news for the USN as Mikuma sinks De Ruyter in the USM while he whiffs which gives me the USM flag – a BIG POC swing!!

In the HI, we fight two more rounds, the first being N and the 2nd being D.  Akagi and the 2nd Mar are both sunk along with a few other ships on both sides.  At this point I run with my missions accomplished.  I then raid the Hornet taking out his last CV.

All in all a disaster for the USN.  The final tally is all 4 CVs sunk (to 2 for me + 1 crippled), 6 CAs sunk to my 3 and 1 BBs sunk to my 2.  His ships also took more damage than mine.  Plus he won’t have any marines until T5.  Andy has his all LBA so Pearl/Samoa are probably safe.  But with only the Wasp and a battered fleet, he won’t be able to do much to my perimeter.  Only 2 CAs were able to base in Australia.  POC goes to 23.  A very tough situation for Andy.

USN Report: Ed did a great job in summarizing the results so I'll go into what I was thinking. I placed the JI patrolling CA in order to do two things. It would give me the option of potentially flagging the area if I came w/a CV or would greatly increase my odds of decontrolling it during a night action. As Ed would have to shoot at the CA first, I would get a minimum of 9 shots against the Yamato.
 
My feeling going into my pats was that Ed would not be able to go to all three (CPO, CS and HI) areas at the same time. I gaged the importance of the 3 in this order...HI, CPO and CS. While the CS would be a nice prize, I felt that it was not worth risking Pearl. However, I underestimated just how aggressive Ed would be! My depleted surface force would, once again, work against me as Ed attacked all three!
 
However, that did leave a slight opening in Hawaii. I thought about different ways to attack it...1) Either a single or double suicide CV, 2) Just to let the LBA fight it alone and hope for the best 3) Commit my fleet w/CV's
 
In the end, I didn't want to see more CV's dying during a night action, so I committed the fleet as well. This was very dangerous but I felt that the saving of Pearl would be worth it if the rest of my plan came through.
 
Those plans included the decontrol of the JI and the, at the least, the decontrol of the USM (although I would love to flag it and felt I had about a 50/50 chance to do it).
 
Results:
 
JI-I manage to decontrol the JI, so that is good. 
 
USM-After a first round of day that sees a 118 sunk, the I-Boat comes through for Ed, sinking the damaged Enterprise. Ironically, I would have placed either Sara or Lex in here as their chances would have been much better but it would not have mattered as it hit for 4 damage. On round 2, Ed's CA promptly sinks my CA while I whiff. That really hurt, both in my chances for this turn but might led me into letting the POC go to maximum later in the game.
 
HI-Ed wins the pref roll and gets his day action. He then decides to do something unexpected, at least to me anyways. He targets just my 2xCV with his 12 bonus AND 12 non-bonus shots. While he succeeded in blowing them away, it allowed my marine(s) to disable his LBA. This assured me of holding HI and having 5xLBA flying CAP over my weaken fleet on round two, if there is a round two! However, it is my turn to shoot badly against his CV's as I only sink Zuikaku, cripple/dis the Kaga and hit Akagi for 2d. A complete reversal of our 4 to 1 CV exchange from T2 would happen this turn!
 
This is where Ed and I differed on what to do. I would have run, knowing that all 5 of the USN CV's would be on the bottom and that I had a complete, except for Attu, perimeter. The open hole in Indo could be sealed with the fleet (to guard against the USN marine unit) next turn while the LBA held the perimeter. The flag in the SPO could allow a single NLF to garrison Guad., if I managed to decontrol the USM (which I was not favored to do). If he controlled the USM, the SPO would have been isolated and it would be a free pass for the NLF. In the CS, Ed has 3 carriers (8 shots) against a single LBA giving him excellent odds there, if I stay. While not as exciting as staying, it would get the job done safely while not risking the pref roll. However, Ed stays AND proceeds to get 2 pure night actions in which he rips into the USN fleet. Then, on round 4, he targets the marine unit during the day action, sinking it. The damaged Akagi is sunk on return fire. I actually didn't mind the exchange as I felt my marine unit would not have a viable (SPO was sealed so Guad was out as was Phil's and Lae due to his expected fleet in Indo on T4) option on T4.
 
In the end, it boiled down to two different views/ways of getting to the same goal. Ed's reasons for staying were certainly valid and the way the turn went will make for a very easy T4+.
 
CS-I decide to try the long shot odds on rd two but whiff. Since Ed hit me for 3d, I elect to withdrawal as I may need all my LBA to defend Samoa/Attu/CS on T4.
 
The overall turn was a complete mess as I couldn't get the key day pref rolls (rds 2 and 3) in HI or win the 50% gamble in the USM. Had they gone in my favor, the POC gain would have been one (to 19) and I would have had a decent fleet. From there, I could contain the IJN to minimal POC gains the rest of the game. Alas, it was not meant to be... 

Turn 4

IJN Report: With Andy saving Pearl  and having all of his LBA, I won’t attempt to convert Samoa.  I could feint going after it with patrollers, but don’t think I need to .  The usual problem of not converting Pearl or Samoa is low POC.  But here I can gain 2 POC/turn on T4 & T5 just by controlling the JI, CPO, Marshalls, SPO, Indo and the Mari’s.  If I can pick up 2 more I am at 29.  And that is my goal this turn.

So my 2 returning marines base in YNY to threaten to take Attu.  I patrol the CS to threaten an E/W block, gain POC and draw LBA away from the AI.  I play it super safe in Indo & the Marshalls with LBA.  One goes to the NPO for POC, a N/S block & to be able to attack the Wasp if she challenges.

Andy concedes the 29 and concentrates on saving Attu with LBA.  I don’t like my chances of taking Attu and don’t want to risk having a marine sunk, so they play safe in the CPO.  My raiders move to protect my POC areas.  Andy decides to keep his USN ships in port as they have no area they can effectively challenge.  Andy sinks Mikuma in the CS and the IB whiffs in the dullest T4 I’ve ever had in a game.

But the POC goes to 29, so I’m OK with it.

USN Report: After the debacle of T3, I feel that I need to guard Attu as it is my sole base inside the IJN perimeter. I also want to open up all the home areas so that I can freely move around as my flexibility is next to nothing at the moment. The large IJN POC gain on T3 has made any attempt at keeping the POC below maximum a fools errand, so I will let it go. To that end, I repair the crippled CO, patrol only 2 British BB's and keep the entire USN navy in port so the sub can't keep sinking USN ships! I hope to get the USN a little healthier so she can put up a reasonable fight later on. If I lost the Wasp on T4, I would only have the Vicky as a threat on T5. Not good. The sub finally misses after going 3 for 3. I guess the captain of the sub realized the British were of no threat and tested an experimental torpedo.
 
I was a bit surprised that Ed did not toss any patrollers into the USM. While he did not need the POC, the threat of a Samoa conversion would have drawn around 4xLBA into the area to defend against it. I would have been in a real bind as far as stopping a double NLF invasion attempt of Attu and keeping him from flagging the CS. It was the only bone that Ed tossed my way...

Turn 5

USN Report: Ed does a good job in countering any move that I can do against a southern invasion. There also is no place for the USN surface fleet to attack either! Oh I can attack, but the result would be a loss of ships with a next to zero chance of breaking a hole in the perimeter. Wasp is another story. I feel that I can either speed roll her into the SPO (to try and take out an NLF) or to go to the NPO (To set up some kind of threat against JI on T6). A tough choice. SPO thinking-1) I need to pass the speed roll, 2) I haven't had a great deal of success on pref rolls since the CPO on T2, 3) The Wasp was sure to die (I will need every CV if I can manage to get this game to T8). NPO thinking-1) The "relative" lower risk of being sunk, 2) A CV based out of Dutch, combined with a small surface force, could make T6 easier. So I decide to go to the NPO.
 
Result-The Wasp becomes the latest victim of the I-Boat and, once again, ruins the plans of the USN. It continues to be a source of anguish for the USN. It has gone 4 for 4 against them, sinking 3 (Including two CV's). It is hard enough to play Ed as it is w/o having the sub come through at key times. The I-Boat's single shot is magnified in my eyes, as it often has a significant impact on not just the current battle, but the rest of the game as well. Unfortunately, the sub is indefensible. When it is hot, there is little that can be done...and it still has one turn to go!

IJN Report: My objective is to keep the POC at 29 and have a secure perimeter.  I deploy very conservatively to accomplish that.  With no decent attack, Andy decides to duck again although he does bring his raiders out.  He goes after D Harbor with a marine and some ships to threaten the JI next turn.

In the NPO, the Wasp offers better odds for me than the marine, so the IB fires at her.  Success as the Wasp is sunk!!  This will make the defense of the JI easier next turn against any D Harbor based ships.  Plus the USN is already hurting carrier-wise and this is just more hurt.  Andy may have a hit squad out on the IB captain as this is the 2nd big score for him!  (The other one being the Enterprise on T3 in the USM.)

I land the 2 marines at Guad to protect that base.  Andy takes D Harbor, bases the 1st Marine in Australia and the 2nd Marine in Pearl.

POC stays at 29.

Turn 6

USN Report I would love to break the SPO, but Ed knows this as well! He garrisons it with pretty much his entire fleet and adds an NLF to checkmate my marine again (see T5)! However, I doubt that I would have invaded it anyway as I really need an interior base such as Lae or the Phil's. I will wait for T7 as my odds should be much better. I spend much of the turn positioning my forces where they can put the most pressure on the IJN for T7. That place is Midway! While my surface forces go the CPO, my carriers will go to the USM so that I can base some of them at New Hebrides.
 
Note-At the end of the turn, I elect to base 3x027'2 there in order to be a threat to Indo on T7. This should make Ed feel that he needs to have 3xLBA there to hold it as 2xLBA is beatable once the Hermes rolls in. I'm not sure if Ed will feel comfortable enough to place his LBA there if I can show enough pressure on the Jap Islands next turn. 
 
Not a lot of action with the exception of Indo and the I-Boat. The Formidable, who is due to be removed, will try to take down an LBA. She does get a hit but for only 1d. Ed meanwhile, rolls 4 hits from his 3xLBA to blow her out of the water. Not to be outdone, the I-Boat runs her record to a perfect 5 for 5 against USN targets as she cripples the Monterey(2d). A great game for the I-Boat as she sinks 2xCV and a CA while dinging a CV for 1d before crippling a CVL. Wow! The great news? She won't be around next turn!!!
 
POC ends at 28 as things look grim for the USN. However, I have a plan...

IJN  Comments:  I’ll add some comments from my side.  Andy did a good job basing at the end of T5 with 5-speed BBs at N Heb/Pearl able to hit SPO/CPO albeit with SRs.  So my surface won’t be able to hold both of those areas (or Marshalls obviously).

There are two primary choices I see in my T6 defense.  One is to hold the CPO (generally a good idea when the USN owns Pearl), Indo, Mari’s & JI.  I really want 3 LBA for Indo as I don’t want to risk even the small chance that the Brit CVLs could win that area against 2 LBA.  That would leave me with probably 2 LBA for the Marshalls or SPO.  I don’t like that as his Aussie based marine might get Lae & the 2 LBA not sink any CVs 

So I go with plan 2 as shown on the map.  It gives up the CPO but makes the SPO very unattractive.  That means he can hit the JI next turn with a lot of CVs, but the POC will be at 28 assuming that I hold the SPO.  The lack of any eastern bases will also be a real problem for Andy taking back those areas.

Andy’s patrols are not surprising.  The question is where will his raiders go.  His board position will be bad if he gives me the SPO.  But he faces a big surface wrap and roughly equal air if he fights there.   He makes the wise choice I think of just positioning for next turn.  So POC is at 28.

Turn 7

IJN Report:  My marine in Guad at the end of T6 was there to make the USN use surface to patrol the SPO.  I didn’t care about Guad per se and had no intention of trying to control the SPO on T7. 

The JI & Indo were my prime areas.  If I win the JI on T7 & T8, I win the game.  If I control both the JI & Indo on T7, I win easily as I need only .5 POC takeaway on T8.  But I was also going to see if Andy put just 1 patroller in the Mari’s and/or SPO.  If I could control the JI & take away 2 POC, then he must control the JI on T8 to win.

I felt that it was more likely that he would not patrol the JI, as he would have more carriers for the fight on T8.  But I wanted to be able to respond if he did patrol the JI.

If he didn’t patrol the JI, I was thinking about either 2 LBA with 2 carriers (or maybe 1 LBA with Soryu/Zuiho/Hosho) + the 3 marines with some surface for Indo.  If I hold the bases & area, I am in good shape regardless of what happens in the JI.  

I knew I wanted surface in the JI & patrolled there.  I kept the rest back to await developments.  When he patrolled the JI heavily, I thought about some other adventures.  But I liked my chances to do some real damage in the JI & went with everything I had.  (The 2 marines able to move out of harm’s way pulled back to the safety of the JI and better opportunities on T8.)

I was surprised when Andy didn’t raid the slow BBs.  But I thought he came up with a good approach when he explained it.  It was part 1 of a 2-part strategy.  It needs a pure D action in the JI on r1, but if he gets that along with poor shooting on my part, it would give him a decent chance to win.

Andy got his pure D action in the JI.  But my shooting was deadly as 8 carriers go to the bottom and 2 are disabled.  Andy shot well too (just not as well) sinking 5 carriers and damaging 1 LBA.  He then ran.  I didn’t have many BBs that could chase his 5 speed stuff, so I let them go.  He successfully raided Sasebo in Guad.

POC goes to 17.  On to T8 where I am favored, but dice can get ugly at times.  We’ll see what happens.

USN Report: I came into this turn with low odds in the game. I figured that I would gamble a bit. If I lay back, it will allow Ed to pick and choose what he wants to do. He can easily hold Indo with 3xLBA and still be a favorite in the Jap Islands. If he holds them, he will only need to decontrol a single area on T8 for the win. That is totally unacceptable as it will be a piece of cake for Ed to carry out this mission. So I need to do something that will put some pressure on him. I decide to try a one-two punch against the Jap Islands in an attempt to steal victory from the jaws of defeat. The first part will be a "bluff" into the JI on this turn while setting up T8 for a chance at glory. To this end, I send in all my speed 5 or better ships into JI while raiding my slow BB's into surrounding areas for T8. I hope that the bold move into the JI will make Ed think twice about any adventures into Indo, thus giving me the POC to setup an all or nothing fight in the JI for T8. My attack plan for the JI will be to stay for only one round of combat and then withdraw away from his slow BB's. I figure that so long as it is a day action on that single round of combat, that he will be grossly outmatched firepower wise on the surface that I also will have some escorting carriers as well. Since I plan to target his fast CV/CVL's, then I should make good my escape. As far as the day combat itself, I will have 36 bonus shots vs his 17 bonus and 24 non-bonus shots which comes out to an even 9 hits apiece. However, my hit ratio will be a little lower if I shoot at some LBA but I hope this will be balanced out by my shooting second. I expect that we will each sink about 5 targets due to clumping and low damage rolls. Further, I expect that any disables will be able to simply raid into JI next turn while any crippled ships will be able to garrison my home areas, freeing up more LBA for front-line duty on T8.
 
In other areas, I simply patrol a couple of ships apiece while sending my 3 back line CVL's into the SPO to air-raid Sasebo. Unfortunately, the Monterey will be repairing as a result of the sub on T6 and will out of the action in JI.
 
The results-I win the important day roll in the JI but get blitzed by Ed's incredible round of fire. Ten out of eleven carriers are knocked out of the action, eight of them being sunk! I shoot pretty well sinking Kaga, Shokaku, Hiyo, Soryu and Zuiho with a ding on Taiho(2d). The F-Boat does not enjoy the same success as the I-Boat and whiffs. My carriers, as well as my chances in this game, are sunk. I will need a miracle on T8 to pull this one out.

Turn 8

IJN Report:  Holding the JI on this turn will get me a 1.5 POC win.  And I am favored with superior air power.  So that is the main thrust with my patrollers.  But Andy can’t get many patrollers into the JI because of where they had to base at the end of T7.  So I keep another option open which is to prevent his control of the JI & pick up 2 POC somewhere else.  To that end, I put a patroller in the CPO and Mari’s (to be combined with 2 marines to take the Philippines).  These 2 patrollers are aimed at forcing him to send some resources to counter them.  Since my CAs have a bonus, it will likely cost him more than a CA to counter them.

With 7 of his POC areas having no surface patrollers, they obviously will need LBA.  Andy only based 3 CVLs able to reach Indo.  That opens up the possibility of sending all my LBA there where they should be favored vs an anticipated 3 (or maybe 4 if he leaves one area open) LBA + 3 CVLs plus Hermes.  It’s tempting, but I decide I have better odds in the JI.  So my LBA go there, the marines to threaten the Philippines & Mari’s flag while my raiders all defend the JI.

Andy decides to risk the 2 LBA only to defend the Mari’s (as he needs everything he can get in the JI) and all his raiders go to the JI.  He has some good luck on his SRs as only 1 BB out of 6 fail.

It’s D in both the JI & Mari’s.  My shooting sinks nothing but disables 6 carriers out of 9.  Andy’s return fire only downs 1 LBA and cripples a CVL.  To add insult to injury, his Mari’s LBA whiff on my marines giving me control of that area.  At this point Andy resigns his hopeless situation.

Andy was in a hole after T3.  The I Boat sinking the Wasp on T5 only added to his hurt.  I think he did a great job of handling his fleet/marines with exterior lines after that to maximize their use.  But he needed to get lucky somewhere on T7/8 and it did not happen for him.  It’s always fun playing a top notch player like Andy and this game was no exception.

USN Report: This turn is just a formality but I have to try, right?
 
In the Mari's, I am faced with Ed having a chance to either flag or decontrol the area. I really can't afford to send a single BB (To potentially decontrol the area) or two BB's (In case of night, in order to get at an NLF) as I will be a big enough dog in the JI as it is. I simply have to have some kind of day (Which I get) and then remove a single NLF (70% chance...but I whiff). So, Ed gets 2 POC there.
 
In JI, I get good speed rolls, making 6 of 7, and we both end up w/23 surface ships. I'll need at least a couple of night actions to have any chance at all. I recall reading about a T10 game between Ed and Alan where Ed managed to get 3 out of 4 night rolls against the flag so there is a glimmer of hope! Unfortunately, it is a day action. Ed does not shoot nearly as deadly as he did on T7 but it did not matter as his 6 disable results are as good as sunks. Where was that fire on T7!!! My pitiful fire-back sinks Amagi, a single LBA and disabling Unryu. With only 3 carriers left vs 5xLBA/carriers, I resign. BTW-I could have kept going to get a crack at his carriers during a night action but Ed had 2xCVL's that could have been placed "on the line" giving him shots at 2 of my remaining 3 carriers. Why waste time?
 
While Ed and I don't always like the result of our games against each other we always know that we will be tested. And isn't that what it is all about? We also know that even an 8 turn game will be played out in under a month, which makes the game more enjoyable, even when on the losing end!  Thanks again for a great game Ed!  I'll look forward to our T10 game...my turn to win, right?

USN Surrender: I resign my game with Ed. I just could not manage to crack the JI on T8 and make an improbable comeback. The final POC count is 4.5 (9.0-4.5) after the bid. My 30 shots against his LBA on T7/T8 only managed to down a single LBA. They were strong, like bull! Congratulations to Ed for playing his usual tough game! He got me down early w/his outstanding Pearl raid and used that to his advantage throughout the entire game. Very well played! If I had to have my almost 3 year, personal streak of 22 (official) straight PBEM games come to an end, I can think of no one better than Ed to do it! Well done, Ed!


Victory in the Pacific® is a registered trademark of The Avalon Hill Game Company.