The I-Boat Raid and CPO Withdrawal adjustments are in play.
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USN Report: T1: +7 IJN
IJN attack sinks 7 BBs, Tennessee waddles away at -4. AF, POW and Repulse sunk in Indo. I-Boat misses.
The USN gets 3 CVs in HI and 2 CVs in CPO, and runs from both places. 3 CV
base in Australia ("USN admirals rub their hands gleefully"). 3
ships survive Pearl, I only have one hurt BB - a good IJN start. But the
location uncertain was great, putting 3 CVs in Australia helps a lot.
IJN Report: The IJN raids were fairly average at
Pearl, with 1 damaged BB, 2 CA & the 7th AF escaping. Indonesia was
a clean sweep as the 5th AF & both BBs
were sunk. Groups X & Y roll into CPO, but take the free withdrawal. Groups Y
& Z show up in the HI, allowing 3 CVs to base in Australia
for a major T2 Indonesia threat. POC at the standard 7.
USN Report: T2: + 16 IJN
IJN do light patrols (4 CA each in HI, USM, 2 CA in CS) and token CAs in JI, Marianas, CPO, Aul.
USN does lighter patrols - a couple of Brits to Indo, 2 CA to CS, 1 CA to NPO. IJN place 3 LBA in Indo, USN place LBA in USM, Marianas, Indo. IJN place one more LBA in Indo, SPO, Marshalls.
IJN moves SNLF to HI, Marianas.
IJN unlimbers the two-area attack - the fast CVs + 6 BB to USM,
Akagi, Kaga, 2x2factor, Hosho + 4 BCs + 6 CA to HI
Shoho goes to Indo and Junyo to CPO.
USN vacillate for a long time and then picks up the glove in HI. D/N is day everywhere except an agreed night in CS and agreed day in HI.
Waves of dice are launched
*drum roll*
and when the smoke clears
IJN whiff everything in Indo, sink one CA in CS, down AF in USM, sink Lexington, ding Saratoga (-1) and dis Saratoga, Hornet in HI.
USN blow up Shoho in Indo and then turns tail, sinks one CA in CS and stays sink the Hiryu in USM sink the SNLF in Marianas, sink Akagi, Ryujo, Zuiho, SNLF and dis Kaga in HI. The IJN runs - with the BBs outrun, the USN go back to HI.
In rd 2, the second USN CA in CS is sunk, but in a heroic effort the captain of the sinking Canberra rams the Suzyua forcing her to withdraw to Truk for repairs. CS is uncontrolled.
IJN convert Singapore, Lae, Attu, Midway and control JI, Indo, SPO, Marshalls,
USM, CPO, Auletians for 12 POC.
USN control BoB, Marianas, NPO for 3 POC
IO, CS, HI is uncontrolled.
POC goes to + 16.
USN admirals wring their hands in despair at the POC count. IJN admirals wring their hands in despair at the CV loss rate.
Post-Patrol Comments: That's not a lot of
patrollers; I'll try to outwait him and see how that works. I don't bother to
patrol the Marshalls as I want to be free to pick my fights, not back up my
previous commitments. One defensive LBA to USM, one offensive to Marianas
(trying to keep the north in play indirectly) and one gambit LBA to Indo to
force him into putting a fourth LBA there. Perhaps he'll make a play for my LBAs
and skip patrolling the Marshalls, in
which case I'll bug out of Marianas.
Post-Raid Comments: Ouch ouch ouch. So this is what the receiving end of a really good two-area feels like. Putting the LBA in USM was a bad mistake, I now not only have to fight in USM or HI, I will also probably lose control of CS. The odds are slightly better in USM with my LBA, but the SNLF in HI means I will lose Pearl if I don't fight there.
I'll take him on at Pearl. I expect to have two carriers afloat after the turn, but saving the home bases will be worth it if I don't lose more CVs than that.
IJN Report: Four LBA and a CVL guard Indonesia. I decided on a 2 area attack trying to provoke a fight. The IJN get there wish … unfortunately as it turns out … as the USN decides to challenge in the HI.
Things can easily go wrong in any one of the areas. But it turns out to be a disaster when things go wrong in ALL the areas. The Brits sink Shoho in Indo for no loss during D. It’s D in the Marianas and the 11th AF promptly sinks Sasebo to hold the area. In the USM, the 10th AF sinks the Hiryu before being shot down. Two rounds of action in the CS, see both Allied CAs sunk, but not before they sink a CA and disable the other to decontrol the area.
It’s an agreed upon D action in the HI. Things go badly there too for the IJN as they only sink 1 CV (& disable 2) with their 14 bonus shots while they lose the Akagi, Ryujo, Zuiho & Yokosuka SNLF to return fire. With only the Hosho left to face 2 USN CVs, the IJN turn tail & run with no pursuit.
POC goes to 16 which helps. But the loss of 5 carriers vs only 1 for the USN, the loss of both marines and no surface attrition makes the turn a disaster for the IJN.
IJN Report: All of the USN based at Pearl at the end of last turn. So the CS & SPO were safe from any raids. Patrols went out to maintain the maximum flexibility and to see the USN response. With the Allied patrols & LBA placement, I gave up on converting Samoa. Three carriers were sent to the CS to take out the one LBA & the rest of the raiders defended the CPO. The USN responded to get attrition on the Home Area interlopers.
The HI CA was sunk by CV strikes. The I Boat whiffs. During N in the USM, the 3 bonus CAs couldn’t hit anything. The USN return fire was even worse as they only sunk 1 CA. The marines are conceded in the CPO. Kure takes the Philippines uncontested.
In the CS, the IJN carriers get 2 hits on the LBA on R1. Hooray!! But for only a total of 2 damage!! Argh#$&*. The Allied LBA is deadly again this turn as the Soryu is sunk with return fire. Ouch!! That’s 2 carriers & a marine sunk in 1 round of fire each by an LBA over the last 2 turns. Thankfully the LBA is shot down on R2 and finally misses with its return fire.
A bright spot is that the POC is now up to 23. But despite that, the IJN is in serious trouble due to the IJN carrier losses, lack of USN CV or fleet attrition and the failure to convert either Samoa or Pearl. With the Wasp coming in on T4, the USN will have more carrier air power than the IJN. Ugh!
USN Pre-Turn Comments: That was some really good shooting - I was bloody lucky to only lose one CV and taking out both SNLFs was wonderful.The attrition rate is fantastic, and I have the LBA to save Samoa next turn. POC is crap, however, and I think I'll concede the +29 without much of a fight. (Which is sort of tricky - I want him to have to consider POC at least during T4, so I can't just switch to all-raids too early...)
I now aim for good bases, breaking the perimeter on T5 and having CVs left to threaten Indo on T6. Besides saving Samoa next turn which is the most important thing.
Post-Patrol Comments: Ed
complains about the CV losses. :) I fully understand him. I wondered if I should
have split my fleet last turn but decided to mass my forces. His patrollers give
me no hint of what he's hitting this turn, so I'll just
patrol the edges and wait for his raiders.
Post-LBA/SNLFs: I trip myself up with my LBA again. I should have put all 5 LBA in USM, 4 is a bit weak. The isolation threat (guadalcanal/hebrides) last turn made me flinch.
Let's see if I can justify sending the Marines to what might become a watery grave: Since I put only 4 LBA in USM, I risk losing it. If I do, I need something to make up for it, and Midway would put me ahead in the base race (I'd then have 3 useful bases, Dutch H., Guadalcanal, Midway and only expect to lose one in T4). But I fully expect Ed to send 2 CV to CS and the rest to CPO - in which case I'll refuse combat and try to kill the CAs I can reach. The Marines are bait - I'd rather lose them than Samoa.
Post-Raid: Well, it works, sort of.... I lose the Marines (bad), hold USM (v.v. good), lose CS so POC goes to +23(bad), sink the Soryu(good).
IJN Report: The USN now has 5 CVs and a large fleet which makes defending the perimeter difficult to say the least. I decide to hold the perimeter with the LBA/CV flag defense in the Marshalls & CPO and 2 LBA in Indo. The fleet escorts the 2 marines in an attempt to take Guadalcanal.
The Allied navy refuses to engage anywhere except in the SPO. All the CVs stay in port safe from the I Boat.
The Allies win the SPO D/N toss. Uh oh! As hot as the Allied LBA have been shooting, this could be bad. But this time they show that they can do something besides sink targets as they only disable one and damage the other marine. Guadalcanal falls. Whew!!
The I Boat goes after the damaged Tn and contributes to the cause for the first time in the game by sinking the BB.
POC goes to 25.
USN Post-Patrols Comments: This turn I expect to lose Guadalcanal. I can't take on the entire IJN navy yet, and it looks like he'll head for the SPO . POCs are not as hopeless as I thought it would be - if I hold the edges, he doesn't get more than +2 this turn or the next - he wouldn't even max out. And anything Ed sends in to raid my patrollers will die, improving my attrition standing. Not much more to do than put lots of LBA in SPO this turn and hope for day.
Post-Raid: It's a flag defense of the CPO and the Marshalls. With 5 CV, I'm at even odds to win a fight, but I stand to lose a couple of CVs in the process... removing control would be good to keep his POC gain at +1 and to get better D/N for the Marines next turn. Any LBA gone also hinders his defense next turn. Sunk CVs would be really bad, though. I'll save the CVs for turn 5.
IJN Report: My main worry is maintaining the perimeter. That is a major challenge with 5 USN CVs, Vicky and 2 Brit CVLs poised to attack.
The main IJN fleet has to guard the CPO because LBA would be vulnerable to disabling by marines. Three LBA are a minimum in the Marshalls where the largest Allied air threat can concentrate with no speed rolls. One LBA is not nearly enough in the SPO, so two go there. That only leaves one for Indo. It is enough to be a favorite to hold the area, but makes it awfully uncomfortable. Unfortunately I can’t think of a better solution as I don’t want to strip an LBA from the Marshalls. Three CAs patrol the JI, since several Allied CAs were based at Dutch Harbor.
Raiders back up the perimeter defense. The USN would have major air superiority in the CPO, but face a 4-6 ship surface lap depending on 2 Samoa-based BB speed roll results. We are thin everywhere, but we have a reasonable chance to hold any area. The problem is that we will need to win Indo (where the Brit CVLs are sure to challenge) AND whatever area the USN hits. Unfortunately that makes the Allies a favorite to break the perimeter somewhere.
The Brits raid Indo but Hermes fails its speed roll. That helps. Most of the USN fleet goes for the Marshalls.
It is pure D in both areas which also helps. But it is shades of Turn 2 bad shooting for the IJN. The LBA & Hosho whiff in Indo. In the Marshalls, the Yorktown & Hornet are max damaged while the Saratoga & Wasp are missed. The I Boat also whiffs. Ugh!! That is 20 bonus & 9 non-bonus shots at 10 USN CV targets to this point in the game with only 1 CV sunk. The IJN shooting futility is not limited the USN though, as they also have taken 6 non-bonus & 3 bonus shots against Brit CVLs with zero hits. Sigh.
The Allies return fire. The Indomitable hits the 21st (uh oh) but it is only 2 damage. Whew! In the Marshalls, the Allied fire is worse than the IJN! Four bonus shots whiff against the Zuikaku. Eighteen shots manage 1 hit for 3d on an LBA. Egads! Now the IJN is a solid favorite. The USN runs with no pursuit.
On R2, the Indomitable is finally sunk. But it is too late as its return fire dooms the 21st. The Brits decide not to tempt fate with the D/N die roller & run back to Ceylon.
POC drops to 24. The IJN is in a lot of trouble. POC is low, the back door is open and there is virtually no USN fleet or CV attrition while the IJN carrier force has been cut in half. We aren’t ready to throw in the towel, but it is a decidedly up-hill climb.
USN Comments: Well, so much for saving the CVs. I really didn't think the IJN would be able to defend three areas this well, but I have an even fight (more or less) in Marshalls. At least the big USN CV force reduces the defense in Indo to a minimum - the Brits go in to see what they can do - all I need is to break the perimeter somewhere.
Massive whiffage in the Marshalls - he cripples two CVs and I don't sink a single thing! Augh! And then the Brits come through by shooting down the lone AF in Indo... that's two times in this game that my luck has been outrageous.
The POC swings to the Allies (!) and we end up at +24 (+19.5 with the bid) as we enter T6. Looks like the IJN has to win every battle from now on....
USN Comments: Well, nothing spectacular here - if my raid in the Marianas wins, it should be over - Ed needs Japan as a safe area. I'll skip the risky battle in CPO and see if the raid is enough - if not, the T7 reinforcements should be.
After combat: Sigh, more whiffs. My CVs don't sink, but they don't do much good either. POC to +21 but I have hordes of ships for the next turn. If anything is bad, it is the basing situation - I might have problems getting enough ships to JI on T8 if I need that to win.
IJN Report: There are several imperatives for the IJN this turn:
Establish an interior perimeter of Indo/Marianas/CPO or they will never have enough “stuff” to hold the JI/Indo on T7 (necessary for the POC).
The JI & Marianas have to be held this turn for the POC.
Hold Lae/Philippines against the USN marine threat (1 in Australia & 1 in Samoa) or we will not be able to hold essential areas on T7.
Get some CV attrition if the USN challenges anywhere.
That’s a tall order!
Surface forces must hold Indo (to screen the SNLFs that have to be there to protect Lae/Philippines). I prefer surface in the CPO because of the T6 marine threat at Pearl. Fortunately 8 USN BBs based at Samoa after their retreat from the Marshalls last turn. So they can’t reach Indo & would have to risk the SR to the CPO. Unfortunately there are 8 USN CAs and 3 CVs in Australia plus the Brits to threaten Indo & the IJN interior.
Two LBA each are all we can spare to defend the JI/Marianas against carrier raids. Also either the Wasp or Saratoga (1d) might fail their SRs which would be a big help. The last LBA goes to Indo to provide more air cover.
After the Allied patrols/LBA/marines, raiders back up Indo & CPO. I am woefully short air cover in the CPO. Ave BB SRs from Samoa would leave him 2 or 3 surface ships short. He may stay out because of the risk of some bad SRs & a first round N battle. In addition the USN has an attractive safe option of the SPO & basing in Guadalcanal. I don’t see any other options for the IJN, so that is what I go with.
The Allies decide to play safe & position for next turn except for the foray into the Marianas. Success there will destroy the IJN position & surely give the Allies the game.
It starts out on a bad note as both carriers make it & they win the D action they want to avoid the I Boat shot until after the first round of fire. The LBA whiff on 1 CV & disable the other. The I Boat takes its shot & disables a 2nd CV. So the IJN ineptitude at sinking any carriers continues. That’s now 21 bonus shots & 15 non-bonus shots against 13 USN CV target opportunities for a grand total of ONE CV sunk. That kind of shooting is going to get the IJN in a whole lot of trouble especially when the Allied air attacks have been so devastating against the IJN carriers. And that’s exactly where they are – in a lot of trouble.
Fortunately the Allied return fire can only damage 1 LBA and the USN runs. Whew. At least the IJN objectives have been accomplished - except for sinking some CVs!! But that is a major exception. Two SNLFs land at Lae to guarantee that base. POC goes down to 21.
On T7, the USN will have 5 of the original 6 CVs plus all its T6 & T7 CVs. Ugh!!
IJN Report: We must hold the JI & Indonesia this turn & one of them next turn PLUS steal a couple POC somewhere else. I could reasonably expect to hold the JI with minimal forces & use the LBA/fleet to hold Indo. However that will not work here. The bulk of the USN fleet could just sit in the SPO & base in Guadalcanal if need be. Even if they don’t get a base in the Marianas, they would have more than enough to prevent me from stealing a couple POC AND controlling the JI next turn.
There are 2 marines based at Guadalcanal & 2 in Australia. So our strategy will be to force the USN fleet into fights this turn in areas where the USN doesn’t hold any bases & hopefully won’t get any. If we can do that then the USN ships will have to base where they can only hit either the JI or Indo. That at least would offer the possibility of holding one of the areas next turn. In addition we have to hold the JI & Indo. There is only a small chance of success primarily because the USN has lost only 1 CV in the game. But there is a chance and we are not ready to offer the white flag just yet.
The Marianas & CPO are patrolled to force the USN to fight. The USN can’t let us have the areas so there will be a fight. We will be badly outgunned and suffer bad attrition. But IF we can hold Indo/JI AND prevent good USN basing then we have a chance on T8 as we will only have to fight ½ the USN. All the LBA will try to hold Indo. The SNLF also go to Indo so as to be able to protect both the Philippines & Lae. We can only hope the LBA air cover is enough to protect them as most of the raiding fleet will have other duties.
The USN sends only 2 CAs to patrol the Marshalls. So that offers a chance to raid & steal one of the POC that we so badly need. If successful, that will mean that the USN will have no ships that can patrol the Marianas next turn unless they hold something back in the SPO.
The Allies raid pretty much as expected. We need D/N rolls AND good air strikes to kill marines AND hold Indo. That’s asking for a lot of luck, but that’s all we have going for us.
The USN gets its D roll in the Marshalls. We decide to shoot the carriers instead of the patrollers to cut down on the amount of USN air power for T8. One CV is sunk & the other max damaged. Return fire sinks Shokaku & disables the Zuikaku - a good trade. In the subsequent N action, both patrollers and Yamato are sunk. Musashi is disabled with damage.
The IJN gets its D in the CPO delaying that area until other area battle results are known. The 2nd round is N. Both patrollers are sunk or disabled at the cost of 2 CAs.
The IJN get their D action in the Marianas. Both marines are disabled with damage. The Hiyo & Hosho are sunk. Kaga & Junyo (2d) are disabled. In succeeding rounds of fire, the IJN loses 5 CAs & 3 BBs to the USNs 1 CA. Several USN BBs are severely damaged.
Indonesia does not go so well. It’s D, but 12 shots are diverted to the 2 marines disabling 1 with damage & missing the other. One CV is sunk & 1 disabled. The USN downs 3 LBA and disables the Taiho. We have to try to protect the bases so we stay against impossible odds. Two SNLFs land in the Philippines and one at Lae. On R2, 1 CV is sunk & another disabled. But all 3 remaining LBA are then shot down. The USN raids the SNLFs but only succeeds in damaging all 3. The last marine then takes out the Lae SNLF.
We accomplish our objectives except Indonesia. But that will probably prove fatal. Since the USN fleet has to base in their Home Areas, we will look at the USN rebasing & patrols on T8 before conceding. POC goes to 11.
USN Comments: Hmm.... I need to (and have a good shot at) win Indo to put this away. If - worst case - Ed holds Indo and prevent me from basing in the Phillipines/Saipan then I have to clear him out of two areas but have to divide my forces before his move. So I'll send in all marines to threaten to grab bases, and put everything with an airstrike that can reach it into Indo.
Ed covers several areas and target my marines - I just shoot to kill the LBA in Indo and worry about basing later. Even dice should give me just 7-8 POC to go on T8.
USN Post-Action Comments: Ed played the better game, but twice my dice was better than his game (all over the board in T2 and in Indo on T5). The T2 advantage turned out to be decisive, even if I probably played too conservatively after that. This was the first time I held all my home areas through an entire game and I really didn't know what would work and what wouldn't - especially the Marines became fiendishly hard to play well. I also completely underestimated the POC effect of holding the NE corner - I've become so accustomed to IJN being at 29 POC on T5 that the fact that the POC didn't run away took me by surprise. Next time I'll play more offensively to bring the POC even further down, it seems easier to do that when the IJN has the burden of attack.
I really look forward to playing Ed again, which we are doing right now - we're up to meet each other in the Top10 format.
IJN Report: Nine carriers rebase at Pearl and 7 in Australia. I expected more carriers in Australia. So we will send out our patrols & look at the Allies patrols in case they get careless. If we can control Indonesia & steal 3 POC somewhere (like the HI) we could pull out a ½ POC win. But the USN thwarts the IJN hopes by putting sizeable patrolling forces in the HI & other areas that the IJN could raid. So at this point, we wave the white flag.
Turn 2 was a disaster for the IJN. Plus we could never sink any USN carriers on Turns 3-6 despite a number of good opportunities. After his T2 advantage, Anders played a good conservative game until he needed to come in for the kill on T7. Five of the original 6 USN carriers made it to Turn 7. That air power was just too overwhelming. Congratulations to Anders on his win and taking the top ladder spot!!
IJN Comments: You’ve carefully patrolled so that there is no chance for me to steal 3 POC & hold Indo. So I’ll not waste time with raiders. I’ve been really struggling to stay alive since T2. I was never able to sink any of your carriers and you just had too much for me.
Congratulations on your win & taking the top ladder spot.