US Carriers 1-3-7(4+) vs.
Japanese LBA 3-4-*
This occurs often with Allied early-war “indirect strategies” to avoid the main Japanese carrier force but disrupt peripheral defenses, or in the late-war general counteroffensive. As VitP veterans know, LBA are excellent defenders with their endurance (immune to ‘Disabled’ results) and punishing power. The sometimes-recommended 3:2 raid will be shown to be a risky and expensive option. 4:3 is even worse.
Note: if Allied light carriers (2 air factors) are also present, count them only as extra firepower - half a US large carrier. They will NOT be fired on (except if losing the battle!), the large carriers are “faster” targets (see Lanchester theory). Example: Turn 2 counter-offensive in Indonesia with 3 US carriers and 2 British light carriers against 2 Japanese LBA. Use the tables below at 4:2.
Starting data:
1 LBA vs. 1 CV: 62.81%
1 CV vs. 1 LBA: 31.51%
2 CV vs. 1 LBA: 55.92%
3 CV vs. 1 LBA: 72.77%
Lanchester Equivalent Value LEV = sqrt(0.6281/0.3151) = 1.41 carriers equal one LBA
Variant 1:
Bold US attackers
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CV Retreat: 2:2, 3:3, 4:4 |
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LBA Retreat: 4:1+ |
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|
CV |
LBA |
US Win |
CV Surv |
IJN Surv |
LR |
|
1 |
1 |
15.73% |
0.157 |
0.577 |
0.502 |
|
2 |
1 |
72.09% |
0.970 |
0.191 |
0.785 |
|
3 |
1 |
94.69% |
2.105 |
0.036 |
1.077 |
|
3 |
2 |
47.24% |
1.178 |
0.718 |
0.704 |
|
4 |
2 |
80.37% |
2.121 |
0.341 |
0.883 |
|
5 |
2 |
95.33% |
3.358 |
0.352 |
1.003 |
|
6 |
2 |
99.26% |
4.618 |
0.423 |
1.141 |
|
4 |
3 |
32.00% |
1.576 |
1.401 |
0.66 |
|
5 |
3 |
63.54% |
2.224 |
0.834 |
0.78 |
|
6 |
3 |
86.41% |
3.279 |
0.597 |
0.883 |
|
5 |
4 |
22.75% |
1.945 |
2.085 |
0.627 |
|
6 |
4 |
49.05% |
2.398 |
1.391 |
0.724 |
Variant 2:
Cautious US attackers
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CV Retreat: 1:1, 3:2, 4:3, 5:4 |
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LBA Retreat: 4:1+ |
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CV |
LBA |
US Win |
CV Surv |
IJN Surv |
LR |
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1 |
1 |
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2 |
1 |
66.88% |
1.249 |
0.331 |
0.890 |
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3 |
1 |
93.70% |
2.158 |
0.063 |
1.113 |
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3 |
2 |
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4 |
2 |
74.68% |
2.360 |
0.495 |
0.917 |
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5 |
2 |
92.54% |
3.469 |
0.428 |
1.027 |
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6 |
2 |
98.99% |
4.629 |
0.430 |
1.145 |
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4 |
3 |
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5 |
3 |
52.77% |
2.692 |
1.152 |
0.801 |
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6 |
3 |
79.96% |
3.579 |
0.800 |
0.909 |
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5 |
4 |
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6 |
4 |
37.33% |
3.007 |
1.801 |
0.735 |
Distribution of final outcomes starting from 6:4 with ‘bold’ US.
This is simplified from the main table. “15” means the state after 15 combat rounds or less.
|
CV |
LBA |
15 |
|
0 |
0 |
.02488 |
|
1 |
0 |
.08987 |
|
2 |
0 |
.14743 |
|
3 |
0 |
.09001 |
|
4 |
0 |
.02943 |
|
5 |
0 |
.00925 |
|
6 |
0 |
.00119 |
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0 |
1 |
.05406 |
|
4 |
1 |
.08923 |
|
5 |
1 |
.03003 |
|
6 |
1 |
.00406 |
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1 |
2 |
.03454 |
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2 |
2 |
.12252 |
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1 |
3 |
.00616 |
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2 |
3 |
.06183 |
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3 |
3 |
.12611 |
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1 |
4 |
.00026 |
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2 |
4 |
.01483 |
|
3 |
4 |
.03420 |
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4 |
4 |
.03011 |